U.S. Auto Market Faces Affordability Crisis
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 30 2026
0mins
Source: Newsfilter
- Changing Consumer Income: According to Cox Automotive, the share of new car buyers with incomes below $100,000 dropped from 50% in 2020 to 37%, while those earning over $200,000 increased from 18% to 29%, indicating a market dominated by affluent buyers, which excludes lower-income consumers from new vehicle purchases.
- New Car Sales Trends: U.S. new car sales are projected to reach 16.3 million in 2025, a decline from the record 17 million in 2020, yet still above historical averages; however, reliance on high-priced models may shrink the market and impact overall sales negatively.
- Scarcity of Affordable Models: A study by Plante Moran found that about one-third of the U.S. population cannot afford new vehicles, with only around 110
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Analyst Views on KMX
Wall Street analysts forecast KMX stock price to fall
13 Analyst Rating
0 Buy
10 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 40.960
Low
24.00
Averages
33.60
High
37.00
Current: 40.960
Low
24.00
Averages
33.60
High
37.00
About KMX
CarMax, Inc. is a retailer of used autos. The Company operates through two segments: CarMax Sales Operations and CarMax Auto Finance (CAF). The CarMax Sales Operations segment consists of all aspects of its auto merchandising and service operations. The CarMax Sales Operations segment sells used vehicles, purchases used vehicles from customers and other sources, sells related products and services, and arranges financing options for customers. The CAF segment consists solely of its own finance operation that provides financing for customers buying retail vehicles from the Company. The CAF segment also services all auto loans, it originates and is responsible for providing billing statements, collecting payments, maintaining contact with delinquent customers, and arranging for the repossession of vehicles securing defaulted loans. It provides customers with a range of other related products and services, including extended protection plan (EPP) products and vehicle repair services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Leadership Background: New CEO Barr, coming from the hotel industry, is described by CarMax as a 'proven leader' capable of driving transformational growth and operational excellence; however, his non-automotive background may raise concerns among investors.
- Sales Decline Challenge: With three consecutive years of declining sales, the board seems to believe a transformation is necessary to improve the company's image, yet investors are worried this may signal a poor self-image and could affect future market confidence.
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- Leadership Changes: Former CEO Bill Nash stepped down in November, and CarMax is undergoing a broader leadership shake-up, with interim CEO David McCreight emphasizing the need for change within the organization.
- Industry Context Challenges: With consumers holding onto their older cars longer, CarMax must adapt its business model to align with this trend, ensuring sustainable growth in a shifting market landscape.
See More
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- Interim Leadership Transition: Current interim president and CEO David McCreight will return to his role as an independent board member, indicating the company's focus on stability and effective management during this transitional period.
- Board Structure Changes: Tom Folliard will remain interim executive chair until the annual meeting in June 2026, after which he is expected to resume his role as non-executive chair, ensuring continuity in corporate governance during this leadership transition.
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See More
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- Turnaround Strategy: The new CEO is expected to help initiate a turnaround for the company.
See More
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- Customer Experience Innovation: By introducing a 'no-haggle' pricing model, CarMax has transformed the car buying experience, enhancing customer satisfaction and brand loyalty, which has driven the company's sustained growth over the past three decades.
- Market Influence: The selection was based on an independent survey of over 10,000 U.S. consumers, emphasizing CarMax's outstanding performance in brand recognition, cultural influence, and emotional connection, thereby enhancing its market image.
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See More
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- Portfolio Concentration: This acquisition elevates CarMax to a 5.18% allocation in BML's portfolio, highlighting a strategic choice to invest in a cash-generative retailer amidst a focus on early-stage biotech investments, suggesting a belief in market opportunities.
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See More
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- CEO Transition Impact: CarMax's announcement of replacing interim CEO David McCreight with Keith Barr resulted in a 12% drop in stock price during midday trading, reflecting strong investor dissatisfaction with the leadership change.
- Leadership Background: New CEO Barr, coming from the hotel industry, is described by CarMax as a 'proven leader' capable of driving transformational growth and operational excellence; however, his non-automotive background may raise concerns among investors.
- Sales Decline Challenge: With three consecutive years of declining sales, the board seems to believe a transformation is necessary to improve the company's image, yet investors are worried this may signal a poor self-image and could affect future market confidence.
- Market Expectations: Despite CarMax's market capitalization of $5.9 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio below 13, analysts predict only a 7% growth rate over the next five years, indicating a lack of optimism regarding the company's recovery prospects.
See More
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- New CEO Appointment: CarMax has named Keith Barr as its new CEO, effective March 16, tasked with leading the company through its turnaround plan amid declining demand.
- Declining Market Demand: The company struggles to resell cars purchased at higher prices as inflation makes consumers more cash-conscious, prompting layoffs and other initiatives to mitigate lower demand and margin pressures.
- Leadership Changes: Former CEO Bill Nash stepped down in November, and CarMax is undergoing a broader leadership shake-up, with interim CEO David McCreight emphasizing the need for change within the organization.
- Industry Context Challenges: With consumers holding onto their older cars longer, CarMax must adapt its business model to align with this trend, ensuring sustainable growth in a shifting market landscape.
See More
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- New CEO Appointment: CarMax announced that Keith Barr will become president and CEO effective March 16, 2026, bringing over 25 years of executive leadership experience, including his recent role as CEO of InterContinental Hotels Group, which is expected to introduce fresh strategic insights into the company.
- Interim Leadership Transition: Current interim president and CEO David McCreight will return to his role as an independent board member, indicating the company's focus on stability and effective management during this transitional period.
- Board Structure Changes: Tom Folliard will remain interim executive chair until the annual meeting in June 2026, after which he is expected to resume his role as non-executive chair, ensuring continuity in corporate governance during this leadership transition.
- Market Reaction Monitoring: CarMax faces market challenges, including a downgrade to a “Sell” rating, reflecting concerns over its valuation, and Barr's appointment may influence investor confidence and drive future strategic adjustments.
See More
CarMax Appoints New CEO Without Automotive Background.
- New Leadership: CarMax is appointing a CEO from outside the auto industry.
- Turnaround Strategy: The new CEO is expected to help initiate a turnaround for the company.
See More
CarMax Recognized as One of America's Most Iconic Companies
- Industry Benchmark Recognition: CarMax has been named one of America's Most Iconic Companies by TIME Magazine, highlighting its leadership in the automotive retail sector and further solidifying its position as the nation's largest used car retailer.
- Customer Experience Innovation: By introducing a 'no-haggle' pricing model, CarMax has transformed the car buying experience, enhancing customer satisfaction and brand loyalty, which has driven the company's sustained growth over the past three decades.
- Market Influence: The selection was based on an independent survey of over 10,000 U.S. consumers, emphasizing CarMax's outstanding performance in brand recognition, cultural influence, and emotional connection, thereby enhancing its market image.
- Commitment to Continuous Development: With 255 stores and over 28,000 associates, CarMax has been recognized as one of the Fortune 100 Best Companies to Work For® for 21 consecutive years, demonstrating its ongoing commitment to employee satisfaction and corporate culture.
See More
BML Capital Management Acquires CarMax Shares
- Share Acquisition: BML Capital Management disclosed a new position in CarMax by acquiring 155,000 shares valued at approximately $5.99 million during Q4, indicating confidence in the company despite a 46.84% decline in its stock price over the past year.
- Portfolio Concentration: This acquisition elevates CarMax to a 5.18% allocation in BML's portfolio, highlighting a strategic choice to invest in a cash-generative retailer amidst a focus on early-stage biotech investments, suggesting a belief in market opportunities.
- Financial Performance Pressure: CarMax's Q3 results revealed an 8% year-over-year decline in retail used unit sales and a 9% drop in comparable sales, with earnings per share falling from $0.81 to $0.43, indicating significant market challenges.
- Profitability and Savings Goals: Despite softer volumes, CarMax generated $590 million in gross profit and aims for at least $150 million in SG&A savings by fiscal 2027 while continuing aggressive stock buybacks, demonstrating a commitment to maintaining profitability in challenging times.
See More
