Should I Buy KMX? KMX 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Carmax Inc (KMX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

47.170

1 Day change

3.74%

52 Week Range

89.470

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: trend and fundamentals are still pointing down, and the stock is trading above most major Street price targets.
Price is sitting just above the key pivot (~46.56); a breakdown likely opens a quick move toward ~44.24 support.
Options positioning is bullish (low put/call), but implied volatility is elevated vs realized—suggesting optimism is already “priced” and near-term risk/reward for a fresh long isn’t attractive.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Pre-market price ~46.9 (-0.76%) with S&P 500 also weak pre-market (-0.44%), adding near-term headwind.
Trend/MAs: Bearish structure (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) indicates the broader trend remains down.
MACD: Histogram -0.332 (below 0); negative momentum is still in place, though contracting (selling pressure easing but not reversed).
RSI(6): ~62.9 (neutral-to-slightly-warm). Not oversold—doesn’t suggest a “must-buy dip.”
Levels: Pivot 46.56 is the near-term decision point.
- Resistance: 48.88 (R1), then 50.31 (R2)
- Support: 44.24 (S1), then 42.81 (S2)
Pattern-based forward look (provided): ~70% chance of +1.63% next day, ~flat next week (+0.02%), but negative next month (-0.89%)—more consistent with short pops inside a larger weak tape than a durable uptrend.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment/positioning: Put/call ratios are low (OI 0.51; volume 0.21) = bullish skew (more calls than puts).
Volatility: 30D IV ~56.6 vs historical vol ~37.0 → options are expensive; market is pricing larger moves than have recently occurred.
IV percentile ~81% (high vs its own history) → elevated premium environment; bullish positioning may already be reflected in price.
Flow/participation: Today volume 2,406 vs 30D avg participation ~42.9% (below average), so the bullish skew is not backed by unusually heavy trading today.
Open interest: Calls 83,921 vs puts 43,183 (call-heavy), consistent with risk-on positioning but not necessarily a timing edge for buying shares immediately.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Hedge fund activity: “Hedge Funds are Buying,” with buying amount up ~179% QoQ—supports the idea of institutional accumulation.
- News: TIME recognition as an iconic company supports brand strength narrative.
- Specific buyer: BML Capital Management reportedly acquired ~~155k shares (~~$6.0M), a tangible vote of confidence.
- If price reclaims and holds above ~48.9 (R1), momentum could improve quickly given the call-heavy options positioning.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Core technical trend remains bearish (long-term moving averages stacked bearishly); current strength looks more like a bounce risk than a trend change.
- Wall Street targets skew below the current price (~47): several major targets cited in recent notes are in the $24–$40 range, implying limited upside (or downside) per consensus framing.
- Macro/sector sensitivity: used auto demand/margins are cyclical; recent analyst commentary highlights near-/mid-term margin pressure and uncertain volume recovery.
- No supportive “insider buying” signal: insiders are neutral over the last month.
- Politicians/congress: no recent congress trading data available (no visible political/influential-flow tailwind in the provided data).

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2026/Q3
Revenue: $5.79B, -6.9% YoY (top-line contraction).
Net income: $62.2M, -50.4% YoY (profitability compression).
EPS: $0.43, -46.9% YoY.
Gross margin: 8.99%, down ~8.7% YoY.
Takeaway: financial momentum is deteriorating; this is not the type of quarter that typically supports an “impatient buy-now” approach unless a clear technical reversal signal is present (it isn’t).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: price targets have been adjusted modestly, but overall tone remains cautious/neutral-to-negative.
Evercore ISI (2026-02-03): PT raised to $40 from $38, kept In Line (still below current price ~47).
Barclays (2026-01-21): PT raised to $28 from $24, kept Underweight (far below current price).
JPMorgan (2025-12-19): PT cut to $28 from $30, kept Underweight; cited margin pressure and low visibility.
Multiple firms (Wedbush/Truist/RBC/Stephens/Mizuho around 2025-12-19): broadly Neutral/Hold/Sector Perform with recurring theme: turnaround efforts require price/advertising investment that likely pressures near-term earnings.
Wall Street “pros vs cons” summary:
- Pros: strategic urgency, competitive investments, potential long-term positioning improvement.
- Cons: near-term margin pressure, weak/negative volume trends, and targets that mostly sit below the current trading level.

13 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast KMX stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KMX is 33.6 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 37 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

10 Hold

3 Sell

Hold

Current: 45.470

Low

Averages

33.6

High

Current: 45.470

Low

Averages

33.6

High

Evercore ISI

In Line

maintain

$38 -> $40

AI Analysis

2026-02-03

New

Reason

Evercore ISI

Price Target

$38 -> $40

AI Analysis

2026-02-03

New

maintain

In Line

Reason

Evercore ISI raised the firm's price target on CarMax to $40 from $38 and keeps an In Line rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets among its Retail Broadlines & Hardlines coverage.

Oddo BHF

Christian Arnold

Neutral -> Outperform

upgrade

$75

2026-01-21

Reason

Oddo BHF

Christian Arnold

Price Target

$75

2026-01-21

upgrade

Neutral -> Outperform

Reason

Oddo BHF analyst Christian Arnold upgraded Komax to Outperform from Neutral with a CHF 75 price target. The firm cites the company's valuation discount for the upgrade.

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KMX Should I Buy

KMX Should I Buy

Should You Buy Carmax Inc (KMX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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