Upstart Set to Release Q4 Earnings on February 10th
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 6 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy UPST?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Announcement: Upstart (UPST) is scheduled to announce its Q4 2023 earnings on February 10th after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.46, reflecting a significant year-over-year growth of 76.9%, indicating strong profitability.
- Revenue Expectations: Analysts forecast Upstart's revenue to reach $288.56 million, representing a 31.8% year-over-year increase, which highlights the company's ongoing growth potential in the personal loan market and may further strengthen its market position.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, Upstart has exceeded EPS and revenue estimates 88% of the time, showcasing its consistent performance and market confidence, which could positively impact its stock price.
- Market Attention: Despite facing market volatility, Upstart's growth in the personal loan sector and robust financial expectations may attract investor interest, especially as demand for personal loans continues to rise in the current economic environment.
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Analyst Views on UPST
Wall Street analysts forecast UPST stock price to rise
13 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
4 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 30.190
Low
20.00
Averages
56.73
High
80.00
Current: 30.190
Low
20.00
Averages
56.73
High
80.00
About UPST
Upstart Holdings, Inc. is an artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace. The Company’s platform includes personal loans, automotive retail and refinance loans, home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), and small dollar loans. It applies artificial intelligence models and cloud applications to the process of underwriting consumer credit. Its AI marketplace connects consumers with its lending partner. Its consumers can access Upstart-powered loans via Upstart.com, through a lender-branded product on its lending partners’ own websites, and through auto dealerships that use its Upstart Auto Retail software. Its platform enables lenders provide a product their customers want, rather than letting customers seek loans from competitors. Its cloud-based software platform incorporates technologies and software development approaches to allow for development of new features, such as cloud-native technologies, data integrity and security, and configurable multi-tenant architecture, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Significant Stock Drop: Upstart Holdings (UPST) saw its stock plummet 13% in Wednesday afternoon trading as investors reacted to mixed guidance, despite Q4 earnings exceeding Wall Street estimates and 2026 revenue guidance surpassing consensus.
- Divergence in Volume and Margins: BTIG analyst Vincent Caintic highlighted that while transaction volumes exceeded expectations, EBITDA margins fell below consensus, leading to mixed market sentiment, particularly as new auto and home loan products yield only a 4% take-rate.
- Increased Reliance on Institutional Investors: Caintic explained that Upstart now requires a $100M receivables buyer to achieve the same revenue at a 4% take-rate compared to a $50M buyer at an 8% take-rate, indicating heightened reliance on institutional investor demand and increased funding risk.
- Market Rating Discrepancies: While the SA Quant system assigns a Sell rating due to poor momentum and profitability scores, the average analyst rating is Hold, and the average Wall Street rating is Buy, indicating some market confidence in Upstart's future prospects.
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- Divergence in Volume and Margins: BTIG analyst Vincent Caintic highlighted that while transaction volumes exceeded expectations, EBITDA margins fell below consensus, leading to mixed market sentiment, particularly as new auto and home loan products yield only a 4% take-rate.
- Increased Reliance on Institutional Investors: Caintic explained that Upstart now requires a $100M receivables buyer to achieve the same revenue at a 4% take-rate compared to a $50M buyer at an 8% take-rate, indicating heightened reliance on institutional investor demand and increased funding risk.
- Market Rating Discrepancies: While the SA Quant system assigns a Sell rating due to poor momentum and profitability scores, the average analyst rating is Hold, and the average Wall Street rating is Buy, indicating some market confidence in Upstart's future prospects.
See More
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- Strong Earnings: Upstart's revenue grew 35% year-over-year to $265 million in the final quarter of fiscal 2025, and the company achieved a profit of $18.6 million, indicating ongoing progress in the alternative credit scoring market.
- Surge in Loan Originations: The quarter saw an 86% increase in loan originations, with projected sales for 2026 expected to reach approximately $1.4 billion, a significant improvement from last year's $1.0 billion, highlighting the company's enhanced competitiveness.
- Management Change Impact: The imminent exit of co-founder and CEO Dave Girouard raises concerns among investors, as this will mark the first time the original CEO is not at the helm, potentially affecting confidence in the company's future direction.
- Guidance Policy Shift: Upstart's decision to cease quarterly guidance in favor of annual estimates may raise transparency concerns among investors, despite still being adequate, which could negatively impact short-term stock performance.
See More
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- Vertiv's Upbeat Guidance: Vertiv's stock jumped nearly 20% due to its optimistic guidance for 2026, with orders accelerating significantly in Q4, surpassing Wall Street expectations and indicating strong demand in the data center market.
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See More
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See More
Upstart (UPST) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
See More
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