This Stock Market Is the Second Most Expensive in 155 Years, Making This High-Yield ETF a Smart Investment for 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 19 2025
0mins
Should l Buy MRK?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Stock Market Performance: The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq have seen significant year-to-date gains of 13% to 18% in 2025, but the market is now the second priciest in history, raising concerns for future investors.
Valuation Metrics: The S&P 500's Shiller P/E Ratio is currently at 39.59, significantly above its historical average, indicating potential for a market correction, as past instances of similar valuations have led to declines.
Investment Strategy: The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF is highlighted as a strong investment option for 2026, offering a high yield of approximately 3.8% and low management fees, making it attractive for income-seeking investors.
Historical Context: The article emphasizes that while dividend-paying stocks have historically outperformed non-payers, the current market conditions suggest caution, as premium valuations are often unsustainable over time.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy MRK?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on MRK
Wall Street analysts forecast MRK stock price to rise
16 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 119.240
Low
95.00
Averages
119.53
High
139.00
Current: 119.240
Low
95.00
Averages
119.53
High
139.00
About MRK
Merck & Co., Inc. is a global health care company that delivers health solutions through its prescription medicines, including biologic therapies, vaccines and animal health products. Its Pharmaceutical segment includes human health pharmaceutical and vaccine products. The Company sells its human health pharmaceutical products primarily to drug wholesalers and retailers, hospitals, government agencies and managed health care providers. It sells these human health vaccines primarily to physicians, wholesalers, distributors and government entities. Its Animal Health segment discovers, develops, manufactures and markets a range of veterinary pharmaceutical and vaccine products, as well as health management solutions and services, for the prevention, treatment and control of disease in all livestock and companion animal species. Its products include KEYTRUDA (pembrolizumab) injection, for intravenous use; WELIREG (belzutifan) tablets, for oral use; Ohtuvayre (ensifentrine) and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Institutional Managers Anticipate Market Correction in 2026
- Market Correction Expectation: A survey by Natixis Investment Managers reveals that 74% of institutional money managers anticipate a market correction in 2026, citing concerns over the tech bubble, geopolitics, and macroeconomic factors, indicating a cautious outlook for future market conditions.
- Defensive Stock Performance: Pharmaceutical giants AbbVie and Merck are recognized as strong defensive stocks, having performed exceptionally well during market downturns, with AbbVie stock rising 24% and Merck 49% in the 2022 bear market, demonstrating their resilience in economic slowdowns.
- Stable Dividend Growth: AbbVie recently raised its dividend by 5% to $1.73 per share, marking the 13th consecutive year of increases, while Merck pays a quarterly dividend of $0.85 per share, having raised it for 15 years, both significantly exceeding the S&P 500 average yield.
- Future Growth Outlook: AbbVie projects adjusted diluted earnings per share of $14.37 to $14.57 in 2026, representing a 43% to 45% increase from 2025; Merck forecasts global sales of $65.5 billion to $67 billion, indicating strong growth potential for both companies in the upcoming market landscape.
See More
Growth Stocks Decline, Value Stocks Poised for Opportunity
- Uber's Value Potential: Uber Technologies (UBER) achieved a 20% revenue growth in its recently ended fourth quarter, and despite a 25% pullback due to market concerns, its current P/E ratio of 16 indicates its potential as a value stock, especially with the autonomous driving market projected to grow at an annualized rate of 52.5% in the coming years.
- Merck's Strategic Shift: Merck (MRK) faces challenges with its cancer drug Keytruda nearing patent expiration, yet through acquisitions like Prometheus and Cidara, it expects to add $70 billion in annual revenue by the mid-2030s, with a current P/E ratio of only 12, highlighting significant future growth potential.
- Bank of America's Value Rebound: Bank of America (BAC) has seen its stock price double since late 2023, and despite pressures from declining interest rates and rising loan delinquency rates, its current P/E ratio below 13 suggests that negative market expectations may already be priced in, offering a compelling entry point for investors.
- Market Self-Correction: Since early 2024, the S&P 500 Growth Index has outperformed the Value Index, but the trend of market self-correction may lead to a resurgence in value stocks, prompting investors to consider increasing their allocation to value stocks to navigate future market fluctuations.
See More
Ongoing Shakeup at HHS with Deputy Secretary Departure
- Leadership Departure: HHS Deputy Secretary Jim O'Neill is set to leave his position, and while he also serves as acting director of the CDC, it remains unclear if this change will affect that role, potentially challenging the continuity of health policies.
- New Oversight Role: An email from HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. indicates that Chris Klomp, Director of Medicare and CMS Deputy Administrator, will now oversee all HHS operations, which could significantly alter the strategic direction of the department.
- Official Reassignments: Several CMS and FDA officials will be promoted to senior counselors at their respective agencies, which may impact the efficiency of drug regulation and policy implementation moving forward.
- Policy Implications: The ongoing shakeup in leadership at HHS raises uncertainties regarding policy execution and drug regulation, particularly in drug approvals and public health responses, potentially affecting market confidence.
See More
Eli Lilly Acquires Orna Therapeutics to Expand Drug Pipeline
- Market Leadership: Eli Lilly's tirzepatide became the best-selling drug globally last year, driving a 400% increase in stock price over the past five years, although a 4% decline in 2026 indicates market caution regarding future growth.
- Strategic Acquisition: Lilly's $2.4 billion cash acquisition of Boston-based Orna Therapeutics aims to enhance its drug pipeline, with Orna developing innovative medicines targeting autoimmune diseases, potentially leading to the next blockbuster drug.
- Technological Innovation: Orna's ORN-252 therapy utilizes in vivo chimeric antigen receptor T-cell technology, allowing the patient's body to generate necessary changes to combat diseases, showing promising potential despite being in early-stage development, which could revolutionize treatment approaches.
- Pipeline Expansion: Prior to the Orna acquisition, Lilly announced a $350 million collaboration with a Chinese biotech firm to develop treatments for immune disorders and cancer, reflecting its proactive strategy in drug development, although new drug marketing may take several years.
See More
Latest Wall Street Rating Updates
- Coinbase Rating Maintained: Bernstein reiterates Coinbase as outperform, noting that despite Q4 revenue missing estimates by 3% and a 28% drop in adjusted EPS to $0.66, the stock remains undervalued, indicating long-term optimism.
- Instacart's Strong Performance: Barclays maintains an overweight rating on Instacart, highlighting its rare beat-and-raise earnings report in the internet earnings cycle, suggesting a unique advantage in a competitive market that may attract more investor interest.
- Airbnb Upgraded to Buy: Deutsche Bank upgrades Airbnb from hold to buy, stating that while it faces AI disruption risks, its unique supply chain offers more insulation compared to peers, which is likely to draw more investor attention.
- CrowdStrike's Attractive Valuation: HSBC upgrades CrowdStrike from hold to buy, citing attractive current valuation and projecting a non-GAAP EPS CAGR of 38.3% over FY26-29, indicating strong growth potential.
See More
Deutsche Bank Upgrades Merck to Buy with $150 Target
- Rating Upgrade: Deutsche Bank analyst James Shin upgraded Merck from Hold to Buy, raising the price target from $115 to $150, indicating a potential 26% upside from Thursday's closing price of $119.24, reflecting the market's undervaluation of the company.
- Patent Cliff Concerns: The analyst noted that market fears regarding Keytruda's impending patent expiration have led to Merck's undervaluation, but he believes the company has a clear path to navigate this transition effectively, similar to AbbVie's successful management of Humira's patent cliff.
- Optimistic Earnings Outlook: Shin projects Merck's trough earnings at approximately $11 per share, exceeding the Street's consensus of around $10, with historical data showing that investing at points of trough clarity often presents significant opportunities, as evidenced by AbbVie's valuation multiple expansion from 11x to 15x.
- Pipeline Potential: Deutsche Bank's assessment suggests that Merck may already have visibility to low-single-digit terminal revenue growth excluding Keytruda, with its pipeline strengthened by acquisitions like Winrevair, Ohtuvayre, and CDTX, potentially providing over $35 billion in risk-adjusted revenue by 2035, easing the transition beyond Keytruda.
See More
Institutional Managers Anticipate Market Correction in 2026
- Market Correction Expectation: A survey by Natixis Investment Managers reveals that 74% of institutional money managers anticipate a market correction in 2026, citing concerns over the tech bubble, geopolitics, and macroeconomic factors, indicating a cautious outlook for future market conditions.
- Defensive Stock Performance: Pharmaceutical giants AbbVie and Merck are recognized as strong defensive stocks, having performed exceptionally well during market downturns, with AbbVie stock rising 24% and Merck 49% in the 2022 bear market, demonstrating their resilience in economic slowdowns.
- Stable Dividend Growth: AbbVie recently raised its dividend by 5% to $1.73 per share, marking the 13th consecutive year of increases, while Merck pays a quarterly dividend of $0.85 per share, having raised it for 15 years, both significantly exceeding the S&P 500 average yield.
- Future Growth Outlook: AbbVie projects adjusted diluted earnings per share of $14.37 to $14.57 in 2026, representing a 43% to 45% increase from 2025; Merck forecasts global sales of $65.5 billion to $67 billion, indicating strong growth potential for both companies in the upcoming market landscape.
See More
Growth Stocks Decline, Value Stocks Poised for Opportunity
- Uber's Value Potential: Uber Technologies (UBER) achieved a 20% revenue growth in its recently ended fourth quarter, and despite a 25% pullback due to market concerns, its current P/E ratio of 16 indicates its potential as a value stock, especially with the autonomous driving market projected to grow at an annualized rate of 52.5% in the coming years.
- Merck's Strategic Shift: Merck (MRK) faces challenges with its cancer drug Keytruda nearing patent expiration, yet through acquisitions like Prometheus and Cidara, it expects to add $70 billion in annual revenue by the mid-2030s, with a current P/E ratio of only 12, highlighting significant future growth potential.
- Bank of America's Value Rebound: Bank of America (BAC) has seen its stock price double since late 2023, and despite pressures from declining interest rates and rising loan delinquency rates, its current P/E ratio below 13 suggests that negative market expectations may already be priced in, offering a compelling entry point for investors.
- Market Self-Correction: Since early 2024, the S&P 500 Growth Index has outperformed the Value Index, but the trend of market self-correction may lead to a resurgence in value stocks, prompting investors to consider increasing their allocation to value stocks to navigate future market fluctuations.
See More
Ongoing Shakeup at HHS with Deputy Secretary Departure
- Leadership Departure: HHS Deputy Secretary Jim O'Neill is set to leave his position, and while he also serves as acting director of the CDC, it remains unclear if this change will affect that role, potentially challenging the continuity of health policies.
- New Oversight Role: An email from HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. indicates that Chris Klomp, Director of Medicare and CMS Deputy Administrator, will now oversee all HHS operations, which could significantly alter the strategic direction of the department.
- Official Reassignments: Several CMS and FDA officials will be promoted to senior counselors at their respective agencies, which may impact the efficiency of drug regulation and policy implementation moving forward.
- Policy Implications: The ongoing shakeup in leadership at HHS raises uncertainties regarding policy execution and drug regulation, particularly in drug approvals and public health responses, potentially affecting market confidence.
See More
Eli Lilly Acquires Orna Therapeutics to Expand Drug Pipeline
- Market Leadership: Eli Lilly's tirzepatide became the best-selling drug globally last year, driving a 400% increase in stock price over the past five years, although a 4% decline in 2026 indicates market caution regarding future growth.
- Strategic Acquisition: Lilly's $2.4 billion cash acquisition of Boston-based Orna Therapeutics aims to enhance its drug pipeline, with Orna developing innovative medicines targeting autoimmune diseases, potentially leading to the next blockbuster drug.
- Technological Innovation: Orna's ORN-252 therapy utilizes in vivo chimeric antigen receptor T-cell technology, allowing the patient's body to generate necessary changes to combat diseases, showing promising potential despite being in early-stage development, which could revolutionize treatment approaches.
- Pipeline Expansion: Prior to the Orna acquisition, Lilly announced a $350 million collaboration with a Chinese biotech firm to develop treatments for immune disorders and cancer, reflecting its proactive strategy in drug development, although new drug marketing may take several years.
See More
Latest Wall Street Rating Updates
- Coinbase Rating Maintained: Bernstein reiterates Coinbase as outperform, noting that despite Q4 revenue missing estimates by 3% and a 28% drop in adjusted EPS to $0.66, the stock remains undervalued, indicating long-term optimism.
- Instacart's Strong Performance: Barclays maintains an overweight rating on Instacart, highlighting its rare beat-and-raise earnings report in the internet earnings cycle, suggesting a unique advantage in a competitive market that may attract more investor interest.
- Airbnb Upgraded to Buy: Deutsche Bank upgrades Airbnb from hold to buy, stating that while it faces AI disruption risks, its unique supply chain offers more insulation compared to peers, which is likely to draw more investor attention.
- CrowdStrike's Attractive Valuation: HSBC upgrades CrowdStrike from hold to buy, citing attractive current valuation and projecting a non-GAAP EPS CAGR of 38.3% over FY26-29, indicating strong growth potential.
See More
Deutsche Bank Upgrades Merck to Buy with $150 Target
- Rating Upgrade: Deutsche Bank analyst James Shin upgraded Merck from Hold to Buy, raising the price target from $115 to $150, indicating a potential 26% upside from Thursday's closing price of $119.24, reflecting the market's undervaluation of the company.
- Patent Cliff Concerns: The analyst noted that market fears regarding Keytruda's impending patent expiration have led to Merck's undervaluation, but he believes the company has a clear path to navigate this transition effectively, similar to AbbVie's successful management of Humira's patent cliff.
- Optimistic Earnings Outlook: Shin projects Merck's trough earnings at approximately $11 per share, exceeding the Street's consensus of around $10, with historical data showing that investing at points of trough clarity often presents significant opportunities, as evidenced by AbbVie's valuation multiple expansion from 11x to 15x.
- Pipeline Potential: Deutsche Bank's assessment suggests that Merck may already have visibility to low-single-digit terminal revenue growth excluding Keytruda, with its pipeline strengthened by acquisitions like Winrevair, Ohtuvayre, and CDTX, potentially providing over $35 billion in risk-adjusted revenue by 2035, easing the transition beyond Keytruda.
See More
