Tesla (TSLA) Market Share Drops to 9.9%, Behind Toyota and Honda
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 23 2026
0mins
Should l Buy TSLA?
Source: stocktwits
- Market Share Decline: Tesla's market share in California has fallen to 9.9%, down from 11.6% in 2024, indicating increased market pressure amid intensifying competition and waning consumer demand.
- Registration Decrease: In 2025, Tesla's registrations in California dropped to 179,656 from 202,865 the previous year, reflecting the first decline in overall EV registrations since 2020, highlighting a challenging market environment.
- Intensifying Competition: While other EV makers like Polestar and Rivian also saw declines in registrations, their market shares did not drop as significantly as Tesla's, suggesting a challenge to Tesla's leadership position in the market.
- Global Sales Dip: Tesla experienced a nearly 9% drop in global sales in 2025, primarily due to an aging vehicle lineup, increased competition, and the loss of $7,500 federal tax credits, impacting its market performance and future growth potential.
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Analyst Views on TSLA
Wall Street analysts forecast TSLA stock price to fall
30 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
11 Hold
7 Sell
Hold
Current: 417.070
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
Current: 417.070
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
About TSLA
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offers services related to its products. Its segments include automotive, and energy generation and storage. The automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales and leasing of high-performance fully electric vehicles, and sales of automotive regulatory credits. It also includes sales of used vehicles, non-warranty maintenance services and collisions, part sales, paid supercharging, insurance services revenue and retail merchandise sales. The energy generation and storage segment include the design, manufacture, installation, sales and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products and related services and sales of solar energy systems incentives. Its consumer vehicles include the Model 3, Y, S, X and Cybertruck. Its lithium-ion battery energy storage products include Powerwall and Megapack.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Market Challenges Intensify: Despite the positive outlook, Tesla's sales fell by 3% in 2025, marking its first annual decline, while earnings plummeted 47% year-over-year to $1.08 per share, highlighting risks from weakened consumer demand and brand damage.
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- Diversified Factory Investments: Among the six new factories, three are dedicated to electric vehicle production, including a lithium refinery and a low-cost lithium iron phosphate battery factory, directly supporting EV growth and strengthening Tesla's market position.
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