TSLA Should I Buy
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TSLA is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. The stock is near the pivot (~433) after a sharp move up, momentum is not cleanly bullish (MACD still negative), insiders are aggressively selling, and the latest quarter showed meaningful YoY deterioration in revenue/earnings despite margin improvement. With no Intellectia buy signal today, the risk/reward favors waiting or avoiding a fresh chase at ~430–433 rather than buying immediately.
Price/levels: Post-market ~429.6, sitting just below the pivot at 433.4. Near-term resistance is 447.8 then 456.8; supports are 418.9 then 410.0. Trend/momentum: MACD histogram is -1.426 (still below zero), but it is negatively contracting, which often signals downside pressure is easing rather than a strong uptrend starting. RSI(6) ~46.6 is neutral, indicating no momentum extreme. Moving averages are converging, consistent with consolidation/indecision after recent movement. Read-through: Technically this looks more like a pause/transition zone than a high-conviction breakout. A clean buy setup would typically be either (a) a decisive push and hold above ~448, or (b) a pullback toward ~419–410 with stabilization—neither is confirmed at the current price.
News-driven optimism: Reports that Elon Musk is considering a merger of SpaceX, Tesla, and xAI is acting as a clear sentiment catalyst; TSLA reportedly jumped on the merger discussion.
Strategic narrative: Bulls are leaning into Tesla’s pivot toward autonomy/robotaxi, humanoid robotics (Optimus), and broader AI/energy ecosystem.
Margin note: Q4 margins were stronger than expected per multiple desks, helping the bull case despite weak YoY earnings.
Insider behavior: Insiders are selling, with selling amount up ~2182.84% over the last month—this is a meaningful near-term bearish signal.
Fundamental deterioration: The latest quarter showed YoY declines in revenue, net income, and EPS.
Capex overhang: Tesla guided to very large 2026 capex ($20B+ per the analyst notes), and JPMorgan highlights expectations of no free cash flow in 2026 and 2027—this can pressure valuation and increase scrutiny on execution.
Timeline risk: Robotaxi/Optimus and autonomy timelines continue to be discussed as pushed/uncertain by some analysts, which can cause volatility if milestones slip.
Market backdrop: S&P 500 slightly down (-0.18%) post-market—no broad tailwind today.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Revenue: $24.90B, down -3.14% YoY (top-line contraction). Net income: $0.84B, down -63.70% YoY (profitability down sharply). EPS: $0.24, down -63.64% YoY (earnings power materially weaker YoY). Gross margin: 20.12%, up +23.74% YoY (a bright spot; margins improved even as earnings fell). Overall: Operational profitability improved at the gross level, but the big YoY drop in net income/EPS suggests heavier opex/other costs and/or mix/investment impacts, aligning with the market’s concern about rising capex and near-term FCF pressure.
Recent trend (last few days): Price targets were mostly revised downward or kept conservative by several firms, with multiple Underweight/Sell stances reiterated, while a few bullish firms maintained high targets on the autonomy/AI re-rating narrative. Notable changes:
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