Tesla Stock (TSLA) Rises Despite Caution About Potential Impact on EV Deliveries in 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 26 2025
0mins
Should l Buy TSLA?
Source: TipRanks
Tesla's Sales Decline: Tesla's shares rose over 1% despite a significant 48.5% drop in new EV registrations in Europe and a three-year low in China sales, attributed to increased competition from local automakers.
Analyst Concerns: Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh warned that upcoming subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China could negatively impact Tesla's delivery forecasts for 2026 and 2027, predicting lower delivery numbers than Wall Street's consensus.
Price Target Adjustment: Rakesh reduced his price target for Tesla from $485 to $475, indicating a potential upside of over 13% from current levels, despite ongoing concerns about the stock's performance.
Market Sentiment: Analysts maintain a cautious outlook on Tesla, with a Hold consensus rating and an average price target suggesting nearly 9% downside risk from the current trading price of $383.04.
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Analyst Views on TSLA
Wall Street analysts forecast TSLA stock price to fall
30 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
11 Hold
7 Sell
Hold
Current: 417.070
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
Current: 417.070
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
About TSLA
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offers services related to its products. Its segments include automotive, and energy generation and storage. The automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales and leasing of high-performance fully electric vehicles, and sales of automotive regulatory credits. It also includes sales of used vehicles, non-warranty maintenance services and collisions, part sales, paid supercharging, insurance services revenue and retail merchandise sales. The energy generation and storage segment include the design, manufacture, installation, sales and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products and related services and sales of solar energy systems incentives. Its consumer vehicles include the Model 3, Y, S, X and Cybertruck. Its lithium-ion battery energy storage products include Powerwall and Megapack.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Existing User Protection: Current owners who have paid for FSD will retain lifetime access, a strategy that not only safeguards existing customers' investments but also has the potential to attract new users, thereby expanding Tesla's customer base.
- Technical Foundation and Market Positioning: FSD is built on Tesla's Autopilot foundation, incorporating features like adaptive cruise control and lane-keeping; although classified as a Level 2 driver-assistance system, its long-term goal is to achieve higher levels of autonomy, enhancing competitive positioning in the market.
- Future Growth Potential: Analysts view the high-margin software revenue from FSD as a stabilizing factor for Tesla amid challenges in other business areas, while its integration with future robotaxi networks is expected to further enhance the company's long-term value.
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- Market Challenges Intensify: Despite the positive outlook, Tesla's sales fell by 3% in 2025, marking its first annual decline, while earnings plummeted 47% year-over-year to $1.08 per share, highlighting risks from weakened consumer demand and brand damage.
- Valuation Risks: With a price-to-earnings ratio of 393, significantly above the tech sector average of 43, investors face high risks buying Tesla stock at current prices, suggesting caution until the company's financial situation improves.
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- Surge in Capital Expenditure: Tesla plans to invest over $20 billion in capital spending by 2026, more than double last year's expenditure, highlighting its ambitious vision for the electric vehicle market, especially as competitors scale back their investments.
- Diversified Factory Investments: Among the six new factories, three are dedicated to electric vehicle production, including a lithium refinery and a low-cost lithium iron phosphate battery factory, directly supporting EV growth and strengthening Tesla's market position.
- Autonomous Driving Vision: CEO Elon Musk clearly stated in the recent earnings call that only 1% to 5% of miles driven will be by humans in the future, indicating Tesla's leadership in autonomous driving, with expectations that Cybercab production will surpass all other models combined.
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