Par Pacific Reaches Record Highs, But Will the Rally Last?
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 18 2025
0mins
Should l Buy PARR?
Source: Benzinga
Current Stock Performance: Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (PARR) has experienced a significant increase in stock price, rising from approximately $14 to near $45 since May, but is now in Phase 17 of its Adhishthana Cycle, indicating potential challenges ahead.
Triad Analysis: The stock's performance in Phases 14, 15, and 16 has shown persistent weakness, with a nearly 70% decline, which suggests that the necessary conditions for a successful Nirvana move in Phase 18 are not met.
Investor Outlook: Current investors are advised to hedge their long positions as the stock approaches Phase 18, which is expected to be characterized by consolidation and weaker momentum, rather than the explosive growth typically associated with Nirvana phases.
Advice for Prospective Buyers: Potential investors should refrain from chasing the current rally, as better entry points may arise once the anticipated consolidation in Phase 18 begins.
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Analyst Views on PARR
Wall Street analysts forecast PARR stock price to rise
8 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 41.410
Low
39.00
Averages
45.71
High
57.00
Current: 41.410
Low
39.00
Averages
45.71
High
57.00
About PARR
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. is an energy company, which provides both renewable and conventional fuels to the western United States. The Company owns and operates 219,000 barrels per day of combined refining capacity across three locations and an energy infrastructure network, including 13 million barrels of storage, and marine, rail, rack and pipeline assets. The Company’s Refining segment owns and operates four refineries with total operating crude oil throughput capacity of 219 thousand barrels per day (Mbpd). Retail segment operates fuel retail outlets in Hawaii, Washington and Idaho. It operates convenience stores and fuel retail sites under Hele and nomnom brands, 76 branded fuel retail sites and other sites operated by third parties that sell gasoline, diesel, and retail merchandise, such as soft drinks, prepared foods, and other sundries. The Logistics segment operates a multi-modal logistics network spanning the Pacific, the Northwest, and the Rocky Mountain regions.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Par Pacific to Release Q4 2025 Earnings on February 24, 2026
- Earnings Release Schedule: Par Pacific Holdings will announce its Q4 2025 results after the NYSE closes on February 24, 2026, providing investors with insights into its financial performance and market conditions.
- Investor Conference Call: The subsequent investor conference call is scheduled for February 25, 2026, at 9:00 a.m. Central Time, aimed at discussing the earnings report in detail and addressing investor inquiries.
- Participation Details: Investors are encouraged to dial in at least 10 minutes before the call starts, highlighting the company's commitment to effective communication with its stakeholders.
- Company Overview: Par Pacific operates in the western U.S. providing both renewable and conventional fuels, with a refining capacity of 219,000 bpd and a robust energy infrastructure, underscoring its competitive strength and growth potential in the energy market.
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- Stock Decline: Delek US's stock has fallen approximately 23% over the past month, currently trading at $29.66, close to its 52-week low of $11.02, reflecting market concerns about its short-term outlook.
- Oversold Condition: With a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 24, below the 30 threshold for being considered oversold, Delek US may be undervalued, presenting a potential buying opportunity for investors.
- Market Dynamics: Delek US's performance aligns with broader trends in the energy sector, highlighting the volatility and shifts in investor sentiment within the industry.
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- Market Performance Comparison: Over the past year, Par Pacific's stock surged by 119.3%, significantly outpacing Exxon Mobil's 16.1% gain, indicating strong performance and market appeal in the refining sector.
- Oil Price Forecast Impact: The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that the average price of West Texas Intermediate crude will drop to $51.42 per barrel in 2026, benefiting the refining industry, particularly Par Pacific, which relies on low oil prices for processing.
- Diversified Crude Sources: Par Pacific's strategy of sourcing crude from various origins, including U.S. inland oil fields and Canadian heavy oil, reduces reliance on a single source, thereby maintaining a competitive edge and enhancing profitability amid price fluctuations.
- Valuation Discrepancy: While Exxon Mobil trades at a 7.74x enterprise value to EBITDA ratio, above the industry average of 4.46x, Par Pacific offers a different risk-reward profile that appeals to risk-tolerant investors.
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Hawaiian Airlines and Alaska Airlines Invest in Sustainable Aviation Fuel Development
- Sustainable Fuel Collaboration: Hawaiian Airlines and Alaska Airlines are jointly investing in the development of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), with plans to deliver Hawaii's first locally produced SAF in Q1 2026, which is expected to reduce carbon emissions by up to 80%, driving a green transformation in the aviation sector.
- Agricultural Support Initiative: The project will utilize Camelina sativa as feedstock for SAF, promoting local agricultural development and creating new economic opportunities, which is anticipated to significantly benefit Hawaii's farmers and agricultural sector.
- Energy Independence Strategy: By establishing a local SAF supply chain, Hawaiian and Alaska Airlines will not only reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels but also enhance Hawaii's energy independence, contributing to state economic growth.
- Investment and Innovation: Par Hawaii has invested $100 million to retrofit its refinery to produce renewable fuels, and combined with the airlines' demand for SAF, this is expected to create a new energy industry in Hawaii, enhancing overall environmental sustainability.
See More
Hawaiian Airlines and Alaska Airlines Invest in Sustainable Aviation Fuel Development
- Sustainable Fuel Production: Hawaiian Airlines and Alaska Airlines are jointly investing in the development of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), with plans to take delivery of the first locally produced SAF in early 2026, driving an environmental transformation in Hawaii's aviation industry while supporting local agriculture.
- Economic Benefits: This initiative is expected to create jobs and enhance Hawaii's energy independence by establishing a new energy sector and fuel supply chain, with potential carbon emissions reductions of up to 80% for the aviation industry.
- Agricultural Support: Pono Pacific will utilize Camelina sativa as feedstock for SAF, promoting agricultural diversification and providing more economic opportunities for farmers while reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels.
- Industry Collaboration: The partnership has received backing from Alaska Air Group's venture capital, highlighting the close collaboration between airlines and fuel producers to achieve long-term emission reduction goals and sustainable development.
See More
Par Petroleum (PARR) May Soon Discover Support: Reasons to Consider Buying the Stock Now
Recent Stock Performance: Par Petroleum (PARR) has experienced a 6.5% decline over the past week, but a hammer chart pattern suggests a potential trend reversal as buying interest may be emerging.
Technical Analysis: The hammer pattern indicates that selling pressure may be subsiding, signaling a possible bottom in the stock's price movement, which could lead to a bullish trend.
Earnings Estimates: Wall Street analysts have raised earnings estimates for PARR by 1.3% over the last month, indicating strong consensus on the company's improved earnings potential.
Zacks Rank: PARR holds a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of stocks based on earnings estimate revisions, which historically correlates with positive stock performance.
See More
Par Pacific to Release Q4 2025 Earnings on February 24, 2026
- Earnings Release Schedule: Par Pacific Holdings will announce its Q4 2025 results after the NYSE closes on February 24, 2026, providing investors with insights into its financial performance and market conditions.
- Investor Conference Call: The subsequent investor conference call is scheduled for February 25, 2026, at 9:00 a.m. Central Time, aimed at discussing the earnings report in detail and addressing investor inquiries.
- Participation Details: Investors are encouraged to dial in at least 10 minutes before the call starts, highlighting the company's commitment to effective communication with its stakeholders.
- Company Overview: Par Pacific operates in the western U.S. providing both renewable and conventional fuels, with a refining capacity of 219,000 bpd and a robust energy infrastructure, underscoring its competitive strength and growth potential in the energy market.
See More
Delek US Holdings Maintains Outperform Rating, Price Target Raised to $51
- Rating Maintained: On December 12, Mizuho analyst Nitin Kumar maintained an Outperform rating for Delek US Holdings and raised the price target from $45 to $51, indicating confidence in the company's future performance.
- Stock Decline: Delek US's stock has fallen approximately 23% over the past month, currently trading at $29.66, close to its 52-week low of $11.02, reflecting market concerns about its short-term outlook.
- Oversold Condition: With a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 24, below the 30 threshold for being considered oversold, Delek US may be undervalued, presenting a potential buying opportunity for investors.
- Market Dynamics: Delek US's performance aligns with broader trends in the energy sector, highlighting the volatility and shifts in investor sentiment within the industry.
See More
Par Pacific Expects Refining Business to Benefit from Low Oil Prices in 2026
- Market Performance Comparison: Over the past year, Par Pacific's stock surged by 119.3%, significantly outpacing Exxon Mobil's 16.1% gain, indicating strong performance and market appeal in the refining sector.
- Oil Price Forecast Impact: The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that the average price of West Texas Intermediate crude will drop to $51.42 per barrel in 2026, benefiting the refining industry, particularly Par Pacific, which relies on low oil prices for processing.
- Diversified Crude Sources: Par Pacific's strategy of sourcing crude from various origins, including U.S. inland oil fields and Canadian heavy oil, reduces reliance on a single source, thereby maintaining a competitive edge and enhancing profitability amid price fluctuations.
- Valuation Discrepancy: While Exxon Mobil trades at a 7.74x enterprise value to EBITDA ratio, above the industry average of 4.46x, Par Pacific offers a different risk-reward profile that appeals to risk-tolerant investors.
See More
Hawaiian Airlines and Alaska Airlines Invest in Sustainable Aviation Fuel Development
- Sustainable Fuel Collaboration: Hawaiian Airlines and Alaska Airlines are jointly investing in the development of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), with plans to deliver Hawaii's first locally produced SAF in Q1 2026, which is expected to reduce carbon emissions by up to 80%, driving a green transformation in the aviation sector.
- Agricultural Support Initiative: The project will utilize Camelina sativa as feedstock for SAF, promoting local agricultural development and creating new economic opportunities, which is anticipated to significantly benefit Hawaii's farmers and agricultural sector.
- Energy Independence Strategy: By establishing a local SAF supply chain, Hawaiian and Alaska Airlines will not only reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels but also enhance Hawaii's energy independence, contributing to state economic growth.
- Investment and Innovation: Par Hawaii has invested $100 million to retrofit its refinery to produce renewable fuels, and combined with the airlines' demand for SAF, this is expected to create a new energy industry in Hawaii, enhancing overall environmental sustainability.
See More
Hawaiian Airlines and Alaska Airlines Invest in Sustainable Aviation Fuel Development
- Sustainable Fuel Production: Hawaiian Airlines and Alaska Airlines are jointly investing in the development of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), with plans to take delivery of the first locally produced SAF in early 2026, driving an environmental transformation in Hawaii's aviation industry while supporting local agriculture.
- Economic Benefits: This initiative is expected to create jobs and enhance Hawaii's energy independence by establishing a new energy sector and fuel supply chain, with potential carbon emissions reductions of up to 80% for the aviation industry.
- Agricultural Support: Pono Pacific will utilize Camelina sativa as feedstock for SAF, promoting agricultural diversification and providing more economic opportunities for farmers while reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels.
- Industry Collaboration: The partnership has received backing from Alaska Air Group's venture capital, highlighting the close collaboration between airlines and fuel producers to achieve long-term emission reduction goals and sustainable development.
See More
Par Petroleum (PARR) May Soon Discover Support: Reasons to Consider Buying the Stock Now
Recent Stock Performance: Par Petroleum (PARR) has experienced a 6.5% decline over the past week, but a hammer chart pattern suggests a potential trend reversal as buying interest may be emerging.
Technical Analysis: The hammer pattern indicates that selling pressure may be subsiding, signaling a possible bottom in the stock's price movement, which could lead to a bullish trend.
Earnings Estimates: Wall Street analysts have raised earnings estimates for PARR by 1.3% over the last month, indicating strong consensus on the company's improved earnings potential.
Zacks Rank: PARR holds a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of stocks based on earnings estimate revisions, which historically correlates with positive stock performance.
See More
