PARR Should I Buy
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PARR is not a good buy right now. Despite supportive sell-side targets and bullish options positioning, there’s no Intellectia buy signal, insider selling has surged, and the near-term pattern-based outlook skews slightly negative (expected drift lower over the next day/week/month). For an impatient buyer looking to enter immediately, the risk/reward at ~36.4 is not compelling enough to justify a fresh buy today; the better call is to hold off rather than chase an entry without a catalyst.
Trend/price context: Pre-market ~36.42 (-0.14%) with the broader market softer (S&P 500 -0.53%). Price is sitting just below the pivot (36.739), implying the stock is currently in a “decision zone” rather than a confirmed breakout.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.0689) and expanding, which is mildly bullish and suggests improving momentum.
RSI: RSI(6) at 53.15 is neutral—no overbought pressure, but also not signaling a strong upside thrust.
Moving averages: Converging moving averages typically indicate consolidation and a potential upcoming larger move, but direction is not confirmed yet.
Key levels:
Quant/pattern bias: Similar-pattern analysis implies a modest negative drift (-0.48% next day, -0.72% next week, -2.82% next month), which argues against buying immediately.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Upcoming earnings: Q4/Dec 2025 earnings on 2026-02-25 after hours (street EPS est. ~1.21). Earnings can be a catalyst if refining margins/capture rates stay strong.
Industry tailwinds (per Piper): Expectation of incrementally tighter refining supply/demand and crude differential tailwinds could support margins.
Sell-side upside: Recent price targets remain well above current price (e.g., Piper $59 Overweight; Mizuho $49 Neutral), implying meaningful upside if fundamentals hold.
Insider selling: Insiders are selling and the selling amount increased ~587% over the last month—this is a near-term negative signal for fresh entries.
Sector macro: Entering 2026, commentary highlights a bearish crude outlook and difficulty for the sector to outperform broadly, even if refining is comparatively better.
No near-term news catalyst: No notable news in the last week to drive an immediate re-rating.
Near-term statistical drift: Pattern-based outlook points to slightly negative returns over the next day/week/month, which is unfavorable for an impatient entry.
Congress/influential trading: No recent congress trading data available (no supportive signal from that channel).
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Growth/quality signals:
Interpretation: Profitability and margins surged dramatically in Q3 (likely driven by margin/capture strength and favorable refining economics), even as revenue declined. That’s fundamentally supportive, but also suggests results may be cyclical/commodity-margin dependent—making timing and catalysts more important for a “buy right now” decision.
Recent trend: Ratings have been stable-to-improving overall with multiple target increases after Q3 strength, though the most recent notable change (2026-01-08 Piper) was a modest price target cut to $59 from $62 while maintaining Overweight.
Notable actions:
Wall Street pros: Margin resilience, improving/tightening refining market setup into 2026, and large implied upside vs current price.
Wall Street cons: Macro/oil oversupply concerns weigh on energy sentiment; refining seen as less favored by at least one neutral shop; targets can be sensitive to crack spreads and crude differentials.
