Pagaya Technologies Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 09 2026
0mins
Should l Buy PGY?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Highlights: Pagaya's Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.80 exceeded expectations by $0.03, indicating robust profitability, although revenue of $335 million, up 19.9% year-over-year, fell short of market expectations by $14.51 million.
- Adjusted EBITDA Growth: The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $98 million, a 53% increase year-over-year, reflecting significant improvement in profitability driven by growth in FRLPC and enhanced operating leverage, despite missing the guidance range of $99 million to $109 million.
- Network Volume Performance: Pagaya's network volume reached $2.7 billion, a 3% year-over-year increase, with a 34% growth when excluding SFR, demonstrating continued market expansion, although it did not meet the expected range of $2.65 billion to $2.9 billion.
- Future Outlook: The company anticipates network volume for FY26 to be between $11.25 billion and $13 billion, with total revenue and other income expected between $1.4 billion and $1.575 billion, indicating cautious optimism for future growth, albeit below the market consensus of $1.52 billion.
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Analyst Views on PGY
Wall Street analysts forecast PGY stock price to rise
6 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 12.400
Low
35.00
Averages
43.33
High
54.00
Current: 12.400
Low
35.00
Averages
43.33
High
54.00
About PGY
Pagaya Technologies Ltd is an Israel-based company. It is primarily engaged in financial technology (FinTech) industry. The Company develops data science, machine learning and AI technology (Artificial Intelligence) analytics, enabling accurate, real-time customer credit assessments. Company's customers are lending companies that, by connecting to the AI Pagaya network, have the opportunity to discover and approve new customers that meet their credit criteria. Thanks to the Company's solutions, its customers gains a customer without undue risk. Pagaya Technologies Ltd delivers technology that provides loan assistance such as personal, car and credit card loans. The Company serves its clients all over the world.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- SanDisk Growth Potential: SanDisk (SNDK) has seen its stock soar 1,410% in the past year, with a 61% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2, driven by a 64% quarter-over-quarter growth in data center revenue, highlighting strong demand and long-term growth prospects in the data storage market.
- Pagaya's Innovative Model: Pagaya leverages AI to drive its credit business and recently announced an $800 billion loan securitization, becoming the largest issuer of personal loan ABS in the U.S., showcasing its disruptive potential in the financial services sector.
- Market Competitive Landscape: While Nvidia remains the leader in AI stocks, companies like SanDisk and Pagaya, with lower valuations and rapid growth potential, may offer more attractive investment opportunities for risk-tolerant investors.
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- Severe Market Reaction: The disappointing earnings have shaken investor confidence, resulting in a significant decline in stock price, which raises questions about the company's profitability and competitive position, potentially affecting its future financing capabilities.
- Industry Updates: The video mentions recent updates regarding Microsoft and Reddit, although details are sparse, suggesting that developments in these companies could impact Pagaya, particularly amid intensifying competition in the tech and social media sectors.
- Investor Focus: The video encourages viewers to monitor Pagaya's future developments, highlighting the market's keen interest in the company's strategic adjustments, which may influence investor decisions and overall market sentiment.
See More
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- Market Reaction Volatility: After a 24% drop, Pagaya's shares rose 1.6% in premarket trading, illustrating investor optimism driven by analysts' bullish outlook, even amidst ongoing consumer uncertainty.
- Strong Financial Performance: Pagaya reported Q4 earnings per share of $0.80, exceeding the $0.77 consensus estimate, although revenue of $321 million fell short of the $349.5 million expectation, indicating sustained profitability.
- Tightened Credit Policy: The CEO noted that the company proactively tightened underwriting in Q4 to address consumer uncertainty, with plans to diversify its capital base and build nearly $3 billion in revolving credit capacity to enhance financial stability.
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- Significant Net Income Growth: The company reported a nearly sixfold increase in non-GAAP net income to $78.8 million ($0.80 per share), yet the network volume only grew by 3% to $2.7 billion, indicating weak overall growth.
- Impact of Strategic Exit: Pagaya's strategic exit from its single-family rental (SFR) operations, which was once a significant revenue source, contributed to the mismatch between revenue and network volume growth, disappointing investors.
- Pessimistic Future Guidance: The company anticipates flat or slightly declining network volume for the first quarter, with revenue projections between $315 million and $335 million, both below analyst expectations, highlighting uncertainty in future growth prospects.
See More
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- Stock Price Plunge: PGY shares dropped over 20% following the earnings report, with Benchmark analysts noting that the selloff was 'violent and largely disconnected' from management's comments during the earnings call, indicating an overreaction from the market regarding the company's outlook.
- Cautious Future Guidance: Pagaya forecasts Q1 2026 revenue between $315 million and $335 million, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $80 million and $95 million, reflecting a cautious stance that may further impact investor sentiment.
- Analyst Price Target Cut: Benchmark lowered its price target on Pagaya from $48 to $33 while maintaining a 'Buy' rating, indicating that the new target still suggests about a 127% upside from the current share price of $14.52, showcasing analysts' confidence in the company's long-term potential.
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- Strong Financial Performance: Pagaya achieved $34 million in GAAP net income and $80 million in operating cash flow in Q4 2025, with full-year revenues reaching $1.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA at $371 million, marking a significant shift towards sustained profitability.
- Risk Management Strategy: CEO Krubiner emphasized the company's disciplined approach to risk management by reducing exposure to higher-risk credit deals, aiming to avoid potential losses and laying the groundwork for long-term value creation.
- Partner Expansion: The company onboarded three new partners, including Achieve and GLS, which is expected to drive the maturation of multiproduct relationships, thereby enhancing earning power and cash flow generation.
- 2026 Outlook: Pagaya projects network volume for 2026 to be between $11.25 billion and $13 billion, with GAAP net income expected to range from $100 million to $150 million, indicating growth potential while managing risk effectively.
See More
Nvidia Stock Slows Down as Other AI Stocks Rise
- Nvidia Stock Performance: Despite Nvidia's (NVDA) impressive 1,220% increase over the past five years, its stock has only risen 3% in the last six months, indicating market caution regarding its future growth, which could impact investor confidence.
- SanDisk Growth Potential: SanDisk (SNDK) has seen its stock soar 1,410% in the past year, with a 61% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2, driven by a 64% quarter-over-quarter growth in data center revenue, highlighting strong demand and long-term growth prospects in the data storage market.
- Pagaya's Innovative Model: Pagaya leverages AI to drive its credit business and recently announced an $800 billion loan securitization, becoming the largest issuer of personal loan ABS in the U.S., showcasing its disruptive potential in the financial services sector.
- Market Competitive Landscape: While Nvidia remains the leader in AI stocks, companies like SanDisk and Pagaya, with lower valuations and rapid growth potential, may offer more attractive investment opportunities for risk-tolerant investors.
See More
Pagaya Earnings Report Analysis and Stock Crash Reasons
- Earnings Report Shortfall: Pagaya's recent earnings report revealed revenues falling short of expectations, leading to a 4.24% drop in stock price on February 9, 2026, indicating market concerns about future growth prospects.
- Severe Market Reaction: The disappointing earnings have shaken investor confidence, resulting in a significant decline in stock price, which raises questions about the company's profitability and competitive position, potentially affecting its future financing capabilities.
- Industry Updates: The video mentions recent updates regarding Microsoft and Reddit, although details are sparse, suggesting that developments in these companies could impact Pagaya, particularly amid intensifying competition in the tech and social media sectors.
- Investor Focus: The video encourages viewers to monitor Pagaya's future developments, highlighting the market's keen interest in the company's strategic adjustments, which may influence investor decisions and overall market sentiment.
See More
Pagaya Technologies Price Targets Cut Amid Bullish Outlook
- Analyst Target Cuts: Stephens lowered Pagaya's price target from $33 to $25, indicating a 68% upside while maintaining an 'Overweight' rating, reflecting confidence in the company's future performance despite recent challenges.
- Market Reaction Volatility: After a 24% drop, Pagaya's shares rose 1.6% in premarket trading, illustrating investor optimism driven by analysts' bullish outlook, even amidst ongoing consumer uncertainty.
- Strong Financial Performance: Pagaya reported Q4 earnings per share of $0.80, exceeding the $0.77 consensus estimate, although revenue of $321 million fell short of the $349.5 million expectation, indicating sustained profitability.
- Tightened Credit Policy: The CEO noted that the company proactively tightened underwriting in Q4 to address consumer uncertainty, with plans to diversify its capital base and build nearly $3 billion in revolving credit capacity to enhance financial stability.
See More
Pagaya Technologies Reports Disappointing Earnings, Shares Plunge Nearly 24%
- Disappointing Earnings Report: Pagaya's fourth-quarter and annual results revealed total revenue of $335 million, a 20% year-over-year increase, but fell short of the $349 million consensus estimate, resulting in a nearly 24% drop in share price.
- Significant Net Income Growth: The company reported a nearly sixfold increase in non-GAAP net income to $78.8 million ($0.80 per share), yet the network volume only grew by 3% to $2.7 billion, indicating weak overall growth.
- Impact of Strategic Exit: Pagaya's strategic exit from its single-family rental (SFR) operations, which was once a significant revenue source, contributed to the mismatch between revenue and network volume growth, disappointing investors.
- Pessimistic Future Guidance: The company anticipates flat or slightly declining network volume for the first quarter, with revenue projections between $315 million and $335 million, both below analyst expectations, highlighting uncertainty in future growth prospects.
See More
Pagaya Shares Plunge Over 20% After Earnings Miss and Soft Guidance
- Earnings Miss: Pagaya reported revenue of $321 million, reflecting a 16.5% year-over-year growth, yet it fell short of Wall Street's expectations of $349.5 million, leading to diminished market confidence in its future performance.
- Stock Price Plunge: PGY shares dropped over 20% following the earnings report, with Benchmark analysts noting that the selloff was 'violent and largely disconnected' from management's comments during the earnings call, indicating an overreaction from the market regarding the company's outlook.
- Cautious Future Guidance: Pagaya forecasts Q1 2026 revenue between $315 million and $335 million, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $80 million and $95 million, reflecting a cautious stance that may further impact investor sentiment.
- Analyst Price Target Cut: Benchmark lowered its price target on Pagaya from $48 to $33 while maintaining a 'Buy' rating, indicating that the new target still suggests about a 127% upside from the current share price of $14.52, showcasing analysts' confidence in the company's long-term potential.
See More
Pagaya Technologies Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights
- Strong Financial Performance: Pagaya achieved $34 million in GAAP net income and $80 million in operating cash flow in Q4 2025, with full-year revenues reaching $1.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA at $371 million, marking a significant shift towards sustained profitability.
- Risk Management Strategy: CEO Krubiner emphasized the company's disciplined approach to risk management by reducing exposure to higher-risk credit deals, aiming to avoid potential losses and laying the groundwork for long-term value creation.
- Partner Expansion: The company onboarded three new partners, including Achieve and GLS, which is expected to drive the maturation of multiproduct relationships, thereby enhancing earning power and cash flow generation.
- 2026 Outlook: Pagaya projects network volume for 2026 to be between $11.25 billion and $13 billion, with GAAP net income expected to range from $100 million to $150 million, indicating growth potential while managing risk effectively.
See More
