Should I Buy PGY? PGY 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Pagaya Technologies Ltd (PGY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

18.640

1 Day change

11.95%

52 Week Range

44.990

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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PGY is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. The stock is in a clear short-term downtrend (bearish moving-average stack and weakening MACD), and pre-market trading is already pressing into/under near-term support. While options positioning and recent deal news lean constructive, the tape is still bearish and the short-term pattern odds skew negative over the next week/month. If you already own it, I’d hold rather than add until price reclaims key levels (back above ~21.60 pivot) with improving momentum.

Technical Analysis

Trend/price action: Bearish. Moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), signaling persistent downside control. Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.252 and expanding negatively, confirming downside momentum is strengthening. RSI: RSI_6 at 27.1 indicates the stock is oversold/washed out (despite the label provided), which can spark bounces, but oversold readings in strong downtrends can persist. Key levels: Pre-market ~19.77 sits below S1 (20.056) and above S2 (19.103). That makes 19.10–20.05 the immediate decision zone. Upside recovery needs a reclaim of the pivot ~21.60; resistance above that is ~23.14. Quant-style forward bias (from similar patterns): ~50% chance of only ~+0.21% next day, but expected drift is negative over the next week (-3.16%) and month (-3.67%), aligning with the bearish technical setup.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Put-call ratios below 1 (OI 0.57; volume 0.62) indicate call-leaning/bullish positioning versus puts. Positioning/flow: Option volume is slightly above its 30-day average (~~106%), and open interest is also elevated (~~113% vs average), suggesting active interest. Volatility: Very high (30D IV ~98.8 vs HV ~86.8; IV percentile ~75). This often reflects elevated uncertainty and/or event premium (earnings on 2026-02-09). Practically, it means the market expects big moves; direction is less certain even with call-leaning ratios.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Event-driven: Partnership with Sound Point Capital on a $720M loan deal (first forward-flow deal for point-of-sale loans) is a tangible platform/volume catalyst.
- Analyst stance remains optimistic overall (Buy/Outperform) with high targets (mid/high-30s), supporting the longer-term bull narrative.
- Options market positioning is call-tilted (PCRs < 1), implying bullish sentiment despite the price weakness.
- Earnings upcoming (2026-02-09 pre-market) can be a catalyst if results/guide validate the growth narrative.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Technical trend is decisively bearish (bearish MA stack + weakening MACD), increasing the odds that any bounce is sold.
- Short-term probabilistic outlook (pattern analogs) points to negative drift over the next week/month.
- Profitability volatility: latest quarter showed sharp YoY declines in net income and EPS, which can pressure sentiment into earnings if investors worry growth is not translating cleanly into bottom-line results.
- High implied volatility into earnings signals the market is pricing in large moves; downside gaps are plausible if expectations aren’t met.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.

Revenue: $339.9M, +36.35% YoY (strong top-line growth).
Gross margin: 40.99%, +1.86% YoY (modest improvement).
Net income: $21.3M, -131.55% YoY (material deterioration vs prior year).
EPS: 0.23, -124.73% YoY. Takeaway: Growth is strong, margins slightly better, but bottom-line metrics are volatile/declining YoY—this weakens the “buy right now” case ahead of earnings unless the chart turns.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent changes:

2026-01-02: Keefe Bruyette lowered PT to $35 from $38, maintained Outperform.
2025-11-11: Canaccord raised PT to $39 from $36, maintained Buy. Wall Street pros: Platform/inflection narrative (more lenders joining, improved monetization, better portfolio credit performance, diversified funding sources). Wall Street cons (implied by PT trim and financial volatility): Execution risk and earnings sensitivity—profitability can swing even when revenue is growing. Other flows: Hedge funds and insiders are neutral (no notable recent trend). Congress trading: no recent data.

6 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast PGY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PGY is 43.33 USD with a low forecast of 35 USD and a high forecast of 54 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 16.650

Low

Averages

43.33

High

Current: 16.650

Low

Averages

43.33

High

Freedom Capital

NULL -> Buy

initiated

$30

AI Analysis

2026-02-03

New

Reason

Freedom Capital

Price Target

$30

AI Analysis

2026-02-03

New

initiated

NULL -> Buy

Reason

Freedom Capital initiated coverage of Pagaya with a Buy rating and $30 price target. Pagaya is a leader in artificial intelligence-enabled credit underwriting with a "unique" two-sided ecosystem, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Keefe Bruyette

Outperform

NULL

downgrade

$38 -> $35

2026-01-02

Reason

Keefe Bruyette

Price Target

$38 -> $35

2026-01-02

downgrade

Outperform

NULL

Reason

Keefe Bruyette lowered the firm's price target on Pagaya to $35 from $38 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm adjusted price targets in consumer finance and payments groups.

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PGY Should I Buy

PGY Should I Buy

Should You Buy Pagaya Technologies Ltd (PGY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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