Morgan Stanley Upgrades Nutrien (NTR) to Overweight, Raises Price Target to $77
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 14 2026
0mins
Should l Buy NTR?
Source: seekingalpha
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Morgan Stanley upgraded Nutrien's rating to Overweight, forecasting that the global potash market will enter a 'tighter for longer' phase, supporting price and earnings growth, with valuation multiples expected to be influenced through at least 2028.
- Consistent Shipment Growth: Global potash shipments are projected to grow for the fourth consecutive year in 2026, a trend not seen since 2005, reflecting robust agricultural demand driven particularly by emerging markets.
- Price Expectations Revised Upward: Morgan Stanley raised its price forecasts for potash in key regions like the U.S., Brazil, and Southeast Asia, anticipating moderate price increases in 2026, primarily due to global effective capacity utilization remaining above 90%, ensuring price stability.
- Nutrien's Competitive Edge: The firm estimates that Nutrien's earnings will exceed market expectations by approximately 12% in 2026, and its reliance on potash and retail operations provides resilience against risks faced by nitrogen and phosphate producers.
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Analyst Views on NTR
Wall Street analysts forecast NTR stock price to fall
15 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
8 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 70.430
Low
58.00
Averages
66.08
High
76.00
Current: 70.430
Low
58.00
Averages
66.08
High
76.00
About NTR
Nutrien Ltd. is a global provider of crop inputs and services. The Company operates a network of production, distribution and ag retail facilities. The Company’s segments include Nutrien Ag Solutions (Retail), Potash, Nitrogen and Phosphate. Its downstream Retail segment distributes crop nutrients, crop protection products, seed and merchandise, and provides agronomic application services and solutions, including the services offered through Nutrien Financial. The Retail segment also manufactures and distributes proprietary products and provides services directly to farmers through a network of retail locations in North America, South America and Australia. Its upstream Potash, Nitrogen and Phosphate segments are differentiated by the chemical nutrient contained in the products that each segment produces and are supported by midstream activities, which include the global sales, freight, transportation and distribution of its products.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Nitrogen Market Outlook: While nitrogen prices remain firm due to seasonality and geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Scotiabank anticipates that rising global supply and the potential for renewed Chinese exports will pressure prices and margins in the second half of the year, urging caution among investors.
- Potash Market Tightness: The potash market appears tight in the near term, supported by low inventories in Brazil and ongoing restocking in Southeast Asia; however, Scotiabank warns that new production capacity and slowing demand growth could lead to oversupply by late 2026, limiting upside for prices and equities.
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- Conference Call Details: The company will host a conference call on February 19 at 10:00 a.m. EST to discuss the results and outlook, with investors able to join by dialing 1-800-990-2777 or 1-416-855-9085.
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