Not a good buy right now: price is breaking down toward support with weakening momentum (MACD negative/expanding) while event risk (earnings 2026-02-18) is close.
The stock is near key support (~68.32), but the tape is risk-off today (NTR -4.46% vs S&P -1.1%), and hedge funds have been net sellers.
Options positioning shows heavy put open interest (bearish hedging/positioning), even though today’s volume skew is call-heavy.
SwingMax: Entry signal was on 2026-01-13; stock is up ~12.08% since then, so the “fresh entry” edge is largely spent and today’s pullback looks more like a retest than a new signal.
Politicians/insiders: no congress activity provided; insiders neutral—no strong “smart money” buy confirmation.
Technical Analysis
Trend/momentum mix: Moving averages are still structurally bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), but momentum is turning down (MACD histogram -0.128 and negatively expanding).
RSI(6) ~42: not oversold yet; suggests there may still be room for downside before a higher-probability bounce.
Levels that matter:
Pivot: 70.34 (now below—bearish near-term)
Support S1: 68.32 (price 68.37 is sitting on it)
Next support S2: 67.08 (likely downside magnet if S1 fails)
Resistance: 70.34 then 72.35
Practical read: unless NTR reclaims ~70.34 quickly, the near-term bias is sell-rallies / cautious rather than chase-buying.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment from positioning: OI put/call 1.92 = significantly more puts outstanding than calls (skews defensive/bearish or hedged).
Sentiment from today’s flow: Volume put/call 0.18 = call volume dominates today (could be dip-buying/speculative calls), but it’s occurring on a sharp down day.
Volatility: IV30 ~36.33 vs HV ~36.04 (roughly aligned) but IV percentile ~92% = options are expensive relative to the past year; market is pricing elevated uncertainty into earnings.
Activity: today’s volume (2,223) is below the 5D avg (2,485) but close to 10D (~2,297), not a major “capitulation” print.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
on 2026-02-18 after hours could reset the narrative if guidance/cash flow surprises to the upside.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
News tone is cautious on fertilizers: risk of rising global supply pressuring nitrogen pricing later in the year; potash could shift to oversupply by late 2026.
Hedge fund flow: “Hedge Funds are Selling” with selling amount up 116.85% QoQ—a meaningful sentiment headwind.
Technical damage today: large down day and price below pivot increases odds of testing 67.08.
Pattern-based forecast provided: modestly negative bias over the next week (about -1%) suggests limited near-term upside urgency.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Growth improved materially YoY:
Revenue: $6.007B, +12.32% YoY
Net income: $464M, +2477.78% YoY (strong rebound vs weak prior-year comp)
EPS: $0.96, +2300% YoY
Gross margin: 32.7%, +16.58% YoY
Takeaway: fundamentals were strong in Q3, but the stock is currently trading more on forward fertilizer pricing/supply expectations and upcoming earnings risk than on backward-looking prints.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: price targets have mostly increased since mid-January (RBC $75, Oppenheimer $76, Scotiabank $70; Mizuho $68), while some firms remain Neutral/Sector Perform citing caution after spring and oversupply risks.
Cons: fertilizer pricing risk (nitrogen supply coming on; potential potash oversupply late 2026); cautious sector stance; stock viewed as fairly valued by some (Scotiabank).
Net: Street is mixed-to-moderately positive on targets, but conviction is tempered by commodity-cycle risk—consistent with a hold (not chase-buy) at today’s weak momentum.
Wall Street analysts forecast NTR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NTR is 66.08 USD with a low forecast of 58 USD and a high forecast of 76 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
15 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast NTR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NTR is 66.08 USD with a low forecast of 58 USD and a high forecast of 76 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
8 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 67.980
Low
58
Averages
66.08
High
76
Current: 67.980
Low
58
Averages
66.08
High
76
Scotiabank
Sector Perform
maintain
$63 -> $70
AI Analysis
2026-02-02
Reason
Scotiabank
Price Target
$63 -> $70
AI Analysis
2026-02-02
maintain
Sector Perform
Reason
Scotiabank raised the firm's price target on Nutrien to $70 from $63 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares. The firm sees several reasons to be cautious on fertilizers following the spring, the analyst tells investors. Scotiabank believes Nutrien is fairly valued.
Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer
Outperform
maintain
$64 -> $76
2026-01-27
Reason
Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer
Price Target
$64 -> $76
2026-01-27
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Oppenheimer raised the firm's price target on Nutrien to $76 from $64 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. On whole, the firm believes the agriculture sector is positioned for another challenging year, with pockets of stabilization and company specific catalysts driving stock performance. Oppenheimer sees consolidation, affordability, and innovation as key themes, with machinery positioned for cycle transition, inputs demand driven by customer value perception, and ingredients becoming a more interesting pocket of the coverage, looking for a catalyst.
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