McDonald's Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations, Analysts Bullish
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy MCD?
Source: CNBC
- Earnings Beat: McDonald's reported an adjusted EPS of $3.12 for Q4, exceeding the $3.05 expected by analysts, with revenues hitting $7 billion, surpassing forecasts of $6.84 billion, indicating robust financial performance.
- Same-Store Sales Growth: U.S. same-store sales rose by 6.8%, significantly improving from last year's -1.4%, primarily driven by promotions like the Grinch Meal and Monopoly, which attracted more customers and boosted sales.
- Analyst Optimism: Wall Street analysts are generally bullish on McDonald's, anticipating continued benefits from value-driven strategies, with Citi analysts noting that franchisee profit growth will lead to strong system alignment around new initiatives.
- Positive Market Reaction: Although shares rose less than 1% on Thursday morning, they have increased nearly 6% year-to-date, reflecting investor confidence in the company's growth potential, with multiple firms raising their price targets, indicating strong market sentiment towards McDonald's.
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Analyst Views on MCD
Wall Street analysts forecast MCD stock price to rise
23 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
11 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 332.080
Low
300.00
Averages
337.63
High
375.00
Current: 332.080
Low
300.00
Averages
337.63
High
375.00
About MCD
McDonald's Corporation is a global foodservice retailer. Its segment includes U.S., International Operated Markets, and International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate. The U.S. segment is its largest market and is 95% franchised. The International Operated Markets segment is comprised of markets, or countries in which it operates and franchises restaurants, including Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the United Kingdom. This segment is 89% franchised. The International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate segment is comprised of developmental licensee and affiliate markets, including equity method investments in China and Japan. This segment is 99% franchised. Its menu features hamburgers and cheeseburgers, the Big Mac, the Quarter Pounder with Cheese, the Filet-O-Fish, and several chicken sandwiches, such as the McChicken and McCrispy as well as Chicken McNuggets, Fries, shakes, sundaes, cookies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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McDonald's Q4 Earnings Report: McDonald's reported strong Q4 earnings, showcasing significant growth driven by accelerated comp-store sales and an increase in store count, indicating resilience among consumers despite economic pressures.
Stock Buybacks and Price Action: The company has a history of stock buybacks, reducing its share count by approximately 25% since 2016, which has contributed to the recent upswing in stock price, supported by solid cash flow and capital returns.
Analyst Upgrades and Market Sentiment: Following the Q4 release, several analysts issued upgrades and increased price targets for McDonald's, reflecting a positive shift in sentiment and suggesting continued stock price growth.
Dividend Stability and Institutional Interest: McDonald's maintains a high dividend payout ratio and is on track for Dividend Kings status in 2026, attracting institutional interest and indicating a solid support base for its stock amidst market fluctuations.
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- Strong Same-Store Sales: Global same-store sales rose by 5.7%, significantly exceeding analyst projections of 3.9%, with U.S. same-store sales climbing 6.8%, reflecting the success of promotional activities.
- Successful Promotions: The launch of the Grinch Meal and the McValue platform resonated well with consumers, with over 50 million pairs of Grinch socks sold within days, driving sales growth.
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- Profitability Boost: Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose by 8% to $3.12, surpassing the $3.05 analyst estimate, reflecting effective strategies in cost control and sales growth, which bolster investor confidence.
- Successful Promotions: U.S. same-store sales climbed 6.8%, driven by the Grinch Meal and promotional items, with over 50 million pairs of Grinch socks sold shortly after launch, demonstrating the direct impact of innovative promotions on sales.
- Future Expansion Plans: McDonald's aims to open approximately 2,600 new restaurants in 2026, including 750 in the U.S., with an overall unit count growth of 4.5%, indicating strong confidence in future growth and positive market demand.
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- Strong Same-Store Sales: Global same-store sales rose by 5.7%, well above the analyst forecast of 3.9%, with U.S. same-store sales climbing 6.8%, reflecting positive consumer response to promotional activities, particularly the success of the Grinch Meal and the launch of the McValue platform.
- Future Expansion Plans: The company plans to open approximately 2,600 new restaurants in 2026, with 750 in the U.S. and 1,000 in China, indicating McDonald's confidence in future markets and its strategic expansion plans, aiming for a 4.5% growth in unit count overall.
- Innovation Driving Sales: McDonald's will continue to introduce innovative beverage items and expand its chicken offerings to drive sales growth, and combined with its current value strategies, this is expected to further enhance its competitiveness in the fast-food market.
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Reduction in Shareholding: Kempczinski has reduced his shareholding in McDonald's by 26,277 shares since February 12, 2026, with a total value of around $8.71 million.
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McDonald's Q4 Earnings Report: McDonald's reported strong Q4 earnings, showcasing significant growth driven by accelerated comp-store sales and an increase in store count, indicating resilience among consumers despite economic pressures.
Stock Buybacks and Price Action: The company has a history of stock buybacks, reducing its share count by approximately 25% since 2016, which has contributed to the recent upswing in stock price, supported by solid cash flow and capital returns.
Analyst Upgrades and Market Sentiment: Following the Q4 release, several analysts issued upgrades and increased price targets for McDonald's, reflecting a positive shift in sentiment and suggesting continued stock price growth.
Dividend Stability and Institutional Interest: McDonald's maintains a high dividend payout ratio and is on track for Dividend Kings status in 2026, attracting institutional interest and indicating a solid support base for its stock amidst market fluctuations.
See More
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- Earnings Report: The company's earnings exceeded expectations, leading to positive reactions from several brokerages.
See More
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- Significant Revenue Growth: McDonald's reported a 10% year-over-year revenue increase in Q4, reaching $7 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $6.84 billion, demonstrating the company's strong performance in a value-driven environment.
- Strong Same-Store Sales: Global same-store sales rose by 5.7%, significantly exceeding analyst projections of 3.9%, with U.S. same-store sales climbing 6.8%, reflecting the success of promotional activities.
- Successful Promotions: The launch of the Grinch Meal and the McValue platform resonated well with consumers, with over 50 million pairs of Grinch socks sold within days, driving sales growth.
- Future Expansion Plans: McDonald's aims to open approximately 2,600 new restaurants in 2026, including 750 in the U.S., with an overall unit count growth of 4.5%, indicating the company's confidence in future growth.
See More
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- Same-Store Sales Surge: McDonald's Q4 revenue increased by 10% to $7 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $6.84 billion, indicating strong performance in a value-driven environment that is likely to enhance market share further.
- Profitability Boost: Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose by 8% to $3.12, surpassing the $3.05 analyst estimate, reflecting effective strategies in cost control and sales growth, which bolster investor confidence.
- Successful Promotions: U.S. same-store sales climbed 6.8%, driven by the Grinch Meal and promotional items, with over 50 million pairs of Grinch socks sold shortly after launch, demonstrating the direct impact of innovative promotions on sales.
- Future Expansion Plans: McDonald's aims to open approximately 2,600 new restaurants in 2026, including 750 in the U.S., with an overall unit count growth of 4.5%, indicating strong confidence in future growth and positive market demand.
See More
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- Significant Sales Growth: McDonald's Q4 revenue increased by 10% year-over-year to $7 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $6.84 billion, demonstrating the company's strong performance in a value-driven promotional environment, thereby reinforcing its market leadership.
- Strong Same-Store Sales: Global same-store sales rose by 5.7%, well above the analyst forecast of 3.9%, with U.S. same-store sales climbing 6.8%, reflecting positive consumer response to promotional activities, particularly the success of the Grinch Meal and the launch of the McValue platform.
- Future Expansion Plans: The company plans to open approximately 2,600 new restaurants in 2026, with 750 in the U.S. and 1,000 in China, indicating McDonald's confidence in future markets and its strategic expansion plans, aiming for a 4.5% growth in unit count overall.
- Innovation Driving Sales: McDonald's will continue to introduce innovative beverage items and expand its chicken offerings to drive sales growth, and combined with its current value strategies, this is expected to further enhance its competitiveness in the fast-food market.
See More
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Stock Sale Announcement: McDonald's Director Christopher Kempczinski plans to sell 26,276 shares of the company's common stock on February 13, with a total market value of approximately $8.73 million.
Reduction in Shareholding: Kempczinski has reduced his shareholding in McDonald's by 26,277 shares since February 12, 2026, with a total value of around $8.71 million.
See More
