Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: price is pressing key resistance (~325.5) while momentum is extremely overbought (RSI_6 ~88), skewing near-term risk to a pullback.
Trend is still bullish (bullish moving averages + expanding positive MACD), so it’s more of a “don’t chase here” than a bearish breakdown call.
Options are active with elevated implied volatility (IV percentile ~78.9) into earnings (Feb 11 pre-market), implying event-risk is priced and near-term swings are likely.
Sentiment is mixed-to-positive from Wall Street (multiple upgrades and higher targets), but recent Congress activity is net selling (4 sells, 0 buys), which is a caution flag.
Net: HOLD/AVOID NEW BUY at current price; better entry would typically be on a pullback toward the 316–308 support zone rather than at resistance.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, indicating strong uptrend across short/medium/long timeframes.
Overbought risk: RSI_6 at 88.417 → stretched/overbought; odds favor consolidation or pullback short term.
Key levels: Pivot 316.786; Resistance R1 325.507 (price ~325.03 is just below); next resistance R2 330.895. Supports: S1 308.065, S2 302.677.
Pattern-based forward odds (similar candlesticks): indicates mild negative drift probabilities (-0.46% next day, -1.91% next week, -4.28% next month), aligning with “overbought near resistance” risk.
Event timing: Earnings (QDEC 2025) on 2026-02-11 pre-market can override technicals in the short run.
Options Data
Neutral
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/sentiment: Open Interest Put-Call Ratio = 1.0 → broadly neutral positioning; Volume Put-Call Ratio = 0.51 → more call volume than puts today (bullish tilt).
Near-term focus: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-11 (pre-market) is the next key checkpoint for growth re-acceleration narrative.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Ratings have improved in early 2026 with multiple bullish moves—BTIG upgraded to Buy ($360) and Oppenheimer upgraded to Outperform ($355); several firms raised price targets (Barclays to $372, Truist to $356, KeyBanc to $340).
Latest change: Guggenheim raised PT to $325 from $310 but stayed Neutral—more constructive estimates, but not an outright bullish call.
Wall Street “pros” view: improving traffic/value perception, potential new product/platform catalysts, and expectations for revitalized earnings growth in 2026.
Wall Street “cons” view: sector demand/macro uncertainty and the stock’s tendency to trade range-bound around ~$300s; some firms remain Neutral, implying upside may be more incremental from current levels.
Wall Street analysts forecast MCD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MCD is 337.63 USD with a low forecast of 300 USD and a high forecast of 375 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
23 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MCD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MCD is 337.63 USD with a low forecast of 300 USD and a high forecast of 375 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Buy
11 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 323.480
Low
300
Averages
337.63
High
375
Current: 323.480
Low
300
Averages
337.63
High
375
Mizuho
Neutral
maintain
$300 -> $325
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
Reason
Mizuho
Price Target
$300 -> $325
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Mizuho raised the firm's price target on McDonald's to $325 from $300 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm cites the company's Q4 upside for the target boost. However, upside to 2026 estimates is "not a given," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Guggenheim
Gregory Francfort
Neutral
maintain
$310 -> $325
2026-02-03
New
Reason
Guggenheim
Gregory Francfort
Price Target
$310 -> $325
2026-02-03
New
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Guggenheim analyst Gregory Francfort raised the firm's price target on McDonald's to $325 from $310 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm, which is raising its same-store sales and EPS estimates, is moving Q4 SSS growth to up 6.0% for the U.S. and up 3.8% for IOM while taking 2026 EPS up to $13.55 from $13.20.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for MCD
