Macy's Ability To Achieve Revised Outlook Amid Weak Macro Environment Is Doubtful: Analyst
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Aug 21 2024
0mins
Source: Benzinga
Macy's Financial Performance: Macy’s reported second-quarter sales of $4.94 billion, falling short of the expected $5.12 billion, while adjusted EPS of $0.53 exceeded expectations. The company has lowered its 2024 net sales forecast to between $22.1 billion and $22.4 billion.
Analyst Insights: Goldman Sachs analyst Brooke Roach expressed concerns over Macy's disappointing results and slowing sales trends across all banners, despite a strong profitability outlook. The analyst maintains a "Buy" rating with a price target of $23, while noting that Macy's stock has dropped 12.6% recently.
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Analyst Views on M
Wall Street analysts forecast M stock price to fall
12 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
9 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 21.830
Low
8.00
Averages
21.33
High
27.00
Current: 21.830
Low
8.00
Averages
21.33
High
27.00
About M
Macy's, Inc. is an omni-channel retail company. The Company operates stores, websites and mobile applications under three brands, Macy's, Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury, which sell a range of merchandise, including apparel and accessories (men's, women's and kids'), cosmetics, home furnishings and other consumer goods. The Company has stores in 43 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and Guam. Its operations are conducted through Macy's, Macy's Backstage, Macy's small format, Bloomingdale's, Bloomingdale's The Outlet, Bloomie's, and Bluemercury. In addition, Bloomingdale's in Dubai, United Arab Emirates and Al Zahra, Kuwait are operated under a license agreement with Al Tayer Insignia. The principal private label brands offered by the Company include Alfani, And Now This, Aqua, Bar III, Cerulean 6, Charter Club, Club Room, Epic Threads, first impressions, Giani Bernini, Holiday Lane, Home Design, Hotel Collection, Hudson Park, Ideology, I-N-C, jenni, JM Collection, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Walmart's Profitability: In the fiscal third quarter ending October 31, Walmart's adjusted operating profit grew 8% year-over-year to $7.2 billion, demonstrating its strong profitability that supports ongoing dividend payments, having raised dividends for over 50 consecutive years, earning the title of Dividend King.
- Macy's Turnaround Plan: Macy's reported a 3.4% increase in same-store sales for Q3 2023, indicating early success in its turnaround strategy; despite challenges, its 3.2% dividend yield attracts income-seeking investors.
- Free Cash Flow Comparison: Walmart generated $8.8 billion in free cash flow over the past nine months, significantly exceeding its $5.6 billion dividend payout, indicating financial strength; in contrast, Macy's free cash flow was $545.7 million, sufficient to cover its $200 million dividend payout, but still requires caution.
- Investment Risk Assessment: While Macy's higher dividend yield is appealing, the uncertainties in its turnaround process suggest that risk-averse investors should be cautious, whereas Walmart's stable earnings and history of dividend growth make it suitable for long-term investors.
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- Suncor's Strong Performance: Suncor slightly beat EPS and revenue expectations in its Q4 2025 report, prompting RBC Capital to raise its price target from $69 to $75, indicating over 35% potential upside, although short-term pullback risks remain.
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- Market Share Opportunity: Macy's (M) is identified by Jefferies as one of 14 stocks expected to benefit from the upcoming earnings releases, with the Saks bankruptcy restructuring potentially allowing it to gain market share through 2026 and exceed second-half earnings expectations.
- Impact of Saks Bankruptcy: Saks Global is undergoing Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings to restructure heavy debt from its 2024 Neiman Marcus acquisition, while core luxury brands continue to operate under some restrictions as the company renegotiates with creditors.
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- Share Sale Details: Dupree Financial Group sold 486,867 shares of Macy's in Q4, with an estimated transaction value of $9.97 million, reducing its stake in Macy's to 2.6% of its assets under management.
- Position Value Change: Following the sale, the value of Dupree's position in Macy's dropped by $7.40 million, indicating the impact of market price fluctuations on its investment portfolio.
- Macy's Performance Overview: Despite challenges like low margins and inventory risks, Macy's reported $4.7 billion in revenue in Q3, achieving its strongest comparable sales growth in 13 quarters, showcasing resilience in the retail market.
- Investor Focus: The sale reflects Dupree's strategic shift towards income and defensive investments; although Macy's has outperformed the S&P 500, it remains a tactical holding rather than a core investment, highlighting caution towards cyclical retailers.
See More
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- Job Cuts Announcement: Nike plans to eliminate 775 positions at U.S. distribution centers as part of its ongoing automation initiative, reflecting a broader restructuring trend in the retail sector that could impact operational efficiency and market competitiveness.
- Historical Layoffs: This reduction follows the disclosure of 1,000 corporate job cuts last summer, indicating that Nike is implementing aggressive cost-control measures in response to weak sales and declining margins.
- Technical Analysis: Nike's stock is currently priced at $63.66, trading 1.2% below its 20-day simple moving average and 4.6% below its 100-day simple moving average, indicating a bearish short-term trend that requires cautious investor response.
- Market Reaction: Following the announcement, Nike shares fell by 2.05%, nearing their 52-week lows, which challenges market confidence in the company's future performance, with key support at $63.00, below which further declines may occur.
See More
Comparing Dividends: Walmart vs. Macy's
- Walmart's Profitability: In the fiscal third quarter ending October 31, Walmart's adjusted operating profit grew 8% year-over-year to $7.2 billion, demonstrating its strong profitability that supports ongoing dividend payments, having raised dividends for over 50 consecutive years, earning the title of Dividend King.
- Macy's Turnaround Plan: Macy's reported a 3.4% increase in same-store sales for Q3 2023, indicating early success in its turnaround strategy; despite challenges, its 3.2% dividend yield attracts income-seeking investors.
- Free Cash Flow Comparison: Walmart generated $8.8 billion in free cash flow over the past nine months, significantly exceeding its $5.6 billion dividend payout, indicating financial strength; in contrast, Macy's free cash flow was $545.7 million, sufficient to cover its $200 million dividend payout, but still requires caution.
- Investment Risk Assessment: While Macy's higher dividend yield is appealing, the uncertainties in its turnaround process suggest that risk-averse investors should be cautious, whereas Walmart's stable earnings and history of dividend growth make it suitable for long-term investors.
See More
Significant Rotation Trends in the 2026 Stock Market
- Ford's Positive Outlook: Ford expects its tariff burden to decrease to $1 billion in 2026 from $2 billion in 2025, with a sustainable dividend yield of 4.4% and a payout ratio of 52%, which should continue to attract investor interest.
- Suncor's Strong Performance: Suncor slightly beat EPS and revenue expectations in its Q4 2025 report, prompting RBC Capital to raise its price target from $69 to $75, indicating over 35% potential upside, although short-term pullback risks remain.
- Macy's Positive Technical Signals: Following a surprising earnings beat in Q3 2025, Macy's stock has shown signs of upward momentum despite dipping below the 50-day SMA, with both RSI and MACD indicating a potential resumption of the uptrend.
- BP's Technical Support: Despite a more than 5% drop following stock buyback news, BP's shares have stabilized around the 50-day SMA, with RSI and MACD indicators suggesting technical support, positioning the stock to potentially overcome the negative impact of mixed earnings results.
See More
AstraZeneca Reports Strong FY 2025 Performance and Outlook
- Strong Financial Performance: AstraZeneca reported total revenue of $58.739 billion for FY 2025, an 8% increase driven by demand in oncology, cardiovascular, renal, and rare diseases, indicating robust market performance across multiple therapeutic areas.
- Earnings Per Share Growth: Core EPS rose by 11% to $9.16, reflecting effective cost management and sales growth strategies, which further bolster investor confidence in the company's financial health.
- Pipeline Advancements: The company achieved 16 positive Phase 3 trial results and secured 43 approvals in major regions over the past year, underscoring its leadership in innovative drug development and setting the stage for future revenue growth.
- Strategic Investment Plans: AstraZeneca announced a $15 billion investment in China by 2030 to enhance manufacturing and R&D capabilities, demonstrating its commitment to the Chinese market and strategic positioning in global operations.
See More
Macy's Positioned to Gain Market Share Amid Saks Bankruptcy Restructuring
- Market Share Opportunity: Macy's (M) is identified by Jefferies as one of 14 stocks expected to benefit from the upcoming earnings releases, with the Saks bankruptcy restructuring potentially allowing it to gain market share through 2026 and exceed second-half earnings expectations.
- Impact of Saks Bankruptcy: Saks Global is undergoing Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings to restructure heavy debt from its 2024 Neiman Marcus acquisition, while core luxury brands continue to operate under some restrictions as the company renegotiates with creditors.
- Store Adjustment Strategy: Saks plans to close most Saks OFF 5TH locations and all remaining Neiman Marcus Last Call outlets, with liquidation sales already in progress, focusing resources on high-income customers and full-price selling.
- Stock Price Volatility: Shares of Macy's (M) fell 4.2% in late Monday trading, reflecting market caution regarding its future performance, despite the potential opportunities arising from the restructuring.
See More
Dupree Financial Group Sells 486,867 Shares of Macy's
- Share Sale Details: Dupree Financial Group sold 486,867 shares of Macy's in Q4, with an estimated transaction value of $9.97 million, reducing its stake in Macy's to 2.6% of its assets under management.
- Position Value Change: Following the sale, the value of Dupree's position in Macy's dropped by $7.40 million, indicating the impact of market price fluctuations on its investment portfolio.
- Macy's Performance Overview: Despite challenges like low margins and inventory risks, Macy's reported $4.7 billion in revenue in Q3, achieving its strongest comparable sales growth in 13 quarters, showcasing resilience in the retail market.
- Investor Focus: The sale reflects Dupree's strategic shift towards income and defensive investments; although Macy's has outperformed the S&P 500, it remains a tactical holding rather than a core investment, highlighting caution towards cyclical retailers.
See More
Nike Plans to Cut 775 Jobs Amid Automation Push
- Job Cuts Announcement: Nike plans to eliminate 775 positions at U.S. distribution centers as part of its ongoing automation initiative, reflecting a broader restructuring trend in the retail sector that could impact operational efficiency and market competitiveness.
- Historical Layoffs: This reduction follows the disclosure of 1,000 corporate job cuts last summer, indicating that Nike is implementing aggressive cost-control measures in response to weak sales and declining margins.
- Technical Analysis: Nike's stock is currently priced at $63.66, trading 1.2% below its 20-day simple moving average and 4.6% below its 100-day simple moving average, indicating a bearish short-term trend that requires cautious investor response.
- Market Reaction: Following the announcement, Nike shares fell by 2.05%, nearing their 52-week lows, which challenges market confidence in the company's future performance, with key support at $63.00, below which further declines may occur.
See More
