Should I Buy M? M 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Macy's Inc (M) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

22.700

1 Day change

5.48%

52 Week Range

24.410

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is sitting just below near-term resistance (~21.59) after a down day, while fundamentals show weak profit conversion (EPS and net income down ~60% YoY in 2026/Q3).
Technicals are mildly constructive (positive, expanding MACD) but not strong enough to justify chasing without a clear breakout above resistance.
Options positioning is mixed: open interest leans defensive (put-heavy), while today’s volume leans bullish (call-heavy), suggesting uncertainty rather than a clean upside consensus.
Analyst sentiment has improved (multiple targets raised), but the Street still frames Macy’s as a “show-me” story with meaningful competitive/profitability concerns.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.0847) and expanding, indicating improving upside momentum, but not an aggressive trend.
RSI: RSI(6) at 53.28 is neutral—no oversold bounce signal and no overbought strength.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest consolidation/range trade rather than a strong directional move.
Key levels: Pivot 20.782 (near-term line in the sand). Resistance R1 21.592 then R2 22.092. Support S1 19.973.
Practical read: With price at 21.18, upside is immediately capped by ~21.59 unless it breaks and holds above it.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment split: Put-heavy open interest (PCR 1.13) implies more hedging/defensive positioning, but today’s flow is call-skewed (volume PCR 0.41).
Volatility: 30D IV 52.84 vs historical vol 39.65 indicates options are priced for larger moves than the recent realized trend.
Activity: Today’s option volume (8,625) is below 30D average (~58.6% of avg), suggesting no major surge in conviction today.
Positioning size: Total OI ~183,860 with puts (97,570) > calls (86,290), consistent with a cautious base positioning into upcoming catalysts.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Operations improving sequentially: reported strongest comparable sales growth in 13 quarters (per news summary).
- Multiple firms raised price targets after Q3 and cited better trends/holiday setup (Jefferies, Citi, Goldman, Evercore, Telsey, others).
- Potential upside drivers highlighted by bulls: momentum-led upside, Bloomingdale’s strength, and possible credit card revenue strength (Jefferies commentary).
- Pattern-based forecast in provided data points to a positive 1-month bias (+7.51% next month) despite near-term choppiness.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Profitability deterioration: 2026/Q3 net income -60.71% YoY and EPS -60% YoY despite slightly higher revenue.
- Event/flow negative: Dupree Financial Group sold 486,867 shares (~$9.97M), signaling a shift away from Macy’s as they rotate to more defensive/income exposure.
- Competitive/structural bear case persists: UBS remains Sell (very low target) citing continued market share losses and disadvantaged positioning.
- Near-term statistical trend from provided pattern set is negative over the next week (-2.25%), implying potential near-term pressure.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter (2026/Q3): Revenue $4.913B (+0.20% YoY) — essentially flat growth.
Earnings quality weakened: Net income $11M (-60.71% YoY) and EPS $0.04 (-60.00% YoY), indicating margin/expense pressure below gross profit.
Gross margin: 41.89% (+0.72% YoY) improved modestly, but did not translate into bottom-line growth.
Takeaway: Top-line is stabilizing, but profitability is the key problem that needs to improve for the stock to re-rate sustainably.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Broad price-target raising cycle after Q3 (Evercore 14→21, Goldman 16.5→22, Citi 19→24, Jefferies 18.5→26 and later 26→27, Telsey 22→25, others), reflecting improved near-term operating trends.
Ratings mix: Still largely Neutral/Hold/Market Perform (Guggenheim Neutral, Goldman Neutral, Citi Neutral, Morgan Stanley Equal Weight, TD Cowen Hold, Telsey Market Perform) with Jefferies as a notable Buy; UBS remains a bearish outlier with Sell.
Wall Street pros: improving comps/holiday setup, potential momentum and incremental revenue levers.
Wall Street cons: “show-me” execution risk, competitive pressure, and weak EPS/net income trajectory despite stable sales.
Influential trading check: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders are Neutral with no significant recent trend.

12 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast M stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for M is 21.33 USD with a low forecast of 8 USD and a high forecast of 27 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

9 Hold

1 Sell

Hold

Current: 21.520

Low

Averages

21.33

High

Current: 21.520

Low

Averages

21.33

High

Jefferies

Buy

maintain

$26 -> $27

AI Analysis

2025-12-12

Reason

Jefferies

Price Target

$26 -> $27

AI Analysis

2025-12-12

maintain

Buy

Reason

Jefferies raised the firm's price target on Macy's to $27 from $26 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm, which adjusted targets among its fashion brands coverage, would prioritize momentum-led upside to estimates versus turnarounds at this point. The firm, which believes across the fashion space that the market is expecting a more resilient consumer and constructive tariff backdrop at least for the near-term, has a 2026 base case that assumes stable consumer spend, although still pressured at the low-end, the analyst tells investors.

Guggenheim

Simeon Siegel

Neutral

initiated

2025-12-09

Reason

Guggenheim

Simeon Siegel

Price Target

2025-12-09

initiated

Neutral

Reason

Guggenheim analyst Simeon Siegel initiated coverage of Macy's with a Neutral rating and no price target. The retail sector still seems to be perceived as "structurally sick," but the firm says "holiday brought the cheer," tariffs have been manageable so far and "most importantly and likely going unnoticed" is the fact that the majority of the firm's coverage actually operates at, or close to, their gross margin peaks.

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M Should I Buy

M Should I Buy

Should You Buy Macy's Inc (M) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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