Expedia Surpasses Estimates but Stock Drops
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy EXPE?
Source: Benzinga
- Earnings Beat: Expedia reported an 11% year-over-year revenue increase to $3.55 billion in Q4, exceeding the market expectation of $3.419 billion, showcasing the company's strong market execution and performance.
- Profitability Improvement: Adjusted EBITDA surged 32% year-over-year to $848 million, with EBITDA margin expanding by 368 basis points to 23.9%, reflecting successful cost control and operational efficiency.
- Increased Shareholder Returns: The company raised its dividend per share by 20% and repurchased approximately 9 million shares for $1.7 billion in 2025, demonstrating a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders.
- Cautious Future Outlook: While sales are projected between $15.6 billion and $16 billion for 2026, management expressed caution regarding the dynamic macro environment, which may lead to relatively muted performance throughout the year, impacting investor confidence.
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Analyst Views on EXPE
Wall Street analysts forecast EXPE stock price to rise
28 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
19 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 227.240
Low
220.00
Averages
284.79
High
360.00
Current: 227.240
Low
220.00
Averages
284.79
High
360.00
About EXPE
Expedia Group, Inc. is an online travel company. The Company’s segments include B2C, B2B, and trivago. The B2C segment provides a full range of travel and advertising services to its worldwide customers through a variety of consumer brands including: Expedia.com, Hotels.com, Vrbo, Orbitz, Travelocity, Wotif Group, ebookers, CheapTickets, Hotwire.com and CarRentals.com. The B2B segment fuels a wide range of travel and non-travel companies, including airlines, offline travel agents, online retailers, corporate travel management and financial institutions, who leverage travel technology and tap into its diverse supply to augment their offerings and market Expedia Group rates and availabilities to their travelers. Its trivago segment generates advertising revenue primarily from sending referrals to online travel companies and travel service providers from its hotel metasearch Websites. The trivago is its majority-owned hotel metasearch company, based in Dusseldorf, Germany.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Expedia Exceeds Q4 2025 Expectations with Strong Growth
- Significant Growth: Expedia reported an 11% increase in both gross bookings and revenue for Q4 2025, reaching $27 billion and $3.5 billion respectively, showcasing strong market performance, particularly with a 24% rise in B2B bookings, indicating the effectiveness of its business model and robust market demand.
- Margin Expansion: The company expanded its margins by 4 points in Q4, with B2C EBITDA margins reaching 31.5%, up 6 points year-over-year, reflecting improved operational efficiency and successful cost control, which enhances investor confidence in future profitability.
- Technology-Driven Innovation: Expedia's sites and apps are now 30% faster, with upgrades in AI integration and payment options enhancing user experience, which is expected to further drive customer conversion rates and loyalty, strengthening competitive positioning in the market.
- Optimistic Outlook: Management anticipates overall revenue growth of 6% to 9% for 2026 and plans to continue investing in B2B and advertising sectors to support long-term growth, demonstrating confidence in future market opportunities and strategic positioning.
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Expedia Exceeds Q4 2025 Expectations with Strong Growth
- Significant Growth: Expedia reported an 11% increase in both gross bookings and revenue for Q4 2025, reaching $27 billion and $3.5 billion respectively, showcasing strong market performance, particularly with a 24% rise in B2B bookings, indicating the effectiveness of its business model and robust market demand.
- Margin Expansion: The company expanded its margins by 4 points in Q4, with B2C EBITDA margins reaching 31.5%, up 6 points year-over-year, reflecting improved operational efficiency and successful cost control, which enhances investor confidence in future profitability.
- Technology-Driven Innovation: Expedia's sites and apps are now 30% faster, with upgrades in AI integration and payment options enhancing user experience, which is expected to further drive customer conversion rates and loyalty, strengthening competitive positioning in the market.
- Optimistic Outlook: Management anticipates overall revenue growth of 6% to 9% for 2026 and plans to continue investing in B2B and advertising sectors to support long-term growth, demonstrating confidence in future market opportunities and strategic positioning.
See More
U.S. Stocks Close Higher as Software Stocks Recover
- Market Recovery: The S&P 500 index rose by 0.05%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 0.10%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 0.18% on Friday, indicating a recovery after early losses, reflecting cautious optimism among investors regarding future economic prospects.
- Inflation Data Impact: The U.S. January Consumer Price Index rose by 2.4% year-over-year, below the expected 2.5%, marking the smallest increase in seven months, which may prompt the Fed to continue cutting rates, thus providing support for the stock market and alleviating concerns over rate hikes.
- Strong Software Stock Performance: Software stocks like Crowdstrike Holdings and ServiceNow rose over 4% and 3%, respectively, lifting the broader market and indicating a rebound in investor confidence in tech stocks, particularly amid rapid advancements in AI technology.
- Metal Stocks Retreat: Reports of the Trump administration's plans to narrow tariffs on steel and aluminum products led to declines in metal companies, with Century Aluminum falling over 7%, reflecting the negative impact of policy changes on the sector.
See More
US Stocks Edge Up, Led by Chipmakers' Gains
- Chipmaker Rebound: Applied Materials (AMAT) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.38, surpassing the consensus of $2.21, leading to a 10% stock price increase that helped lift the broader market, indicating strong recovery potential in tech stocks.
- Inflation Data Impact: The US January CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, below the expected 2.5%, which may prompt the Fed to continue cutting rates, with the 10-year T-note yield falling to 4.05%, providing support for the market.
- Earnings Performance: Over two-thirds of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 76% exceeding expectations, and Q4 earnings growth is projected at 8.4%, demonstrating corporate resilience and restoring market confidence.
- Market Sentiment Fluctuations: Despite the overall market rise, concerns over AI persist, putting pressure on certain stocks, particularly in tech and logistics, reflecting investor caution regarding future economic prospects.
See More
Significant Stock Movements for Moderna and Others
- Moderna's Positive Outlook: Moderna anticipates a revenue growth of up to 10% by 2025, surpassing the FactSet consensus of 5.9%, despite reporting a narrower fourth-quarter loss of $2.11 per share compared to the expected $2.54, indicating resilience in its market position.
- Maplebear's Strong Performance: Maplebear's Instacart forecasts gross transaction value between $10.13 billion and $10.28 billion for the current quarter, exceeding the $9.97 billion StreetAccount estimate, while adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $280 million and $290 million, reflecting improved profitability.
- Wendy's Earnings Beat: Wendy's reported adjusted earnings of 16 cents per share and revenue of $543 million for the fourth quarter, both exceeding FactSet expectations, demonstrating its sustained competitiveness in the fast-food market.
- Rivian's Upgraded Delivery Forecast: Rivian projects vehicle deliveries of 62,000 to 67,000 units in 2026, representing a 47% to 59% increase from 2025, and despite a fourth-quarter adjusted loss of 54 cents per share, revenue of $1.29 billion surpassed estimates, indicating strong market demand.
See More
US Stocks Decline Amid Rising AI Concerns
- Market Pressure Intensifies: The S&P 500 index fell by 0.22% and the Nasdaq 100 by 0.23%, reflecting investor concerns about AI technologies potentially disrupting multiple sectors, leading to a depressed market sentiment and extending Thursday's sharp losses.
- Inflation Data Impact: The US January Consumer Price Index rose by 2.4% year-over-year, below the expected 2.5%, marking the smallest increase in seven months, which drove the 10-year Treasury yield down to a 2.25-month low of 4.05%, potentially prompting the Fed to continue cutting rates.
- Earnings Optimism: Over two-thirds of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 76% exceeding expectations, and Q4 earnings growth is projected at 8.4%, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth, indicating resilience in corporate earnings.
- Tech Stocks Underperform: The so-called
See More
Severe Sell-off in Software Sector Raises Concerns
- Sector Sell-off: The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) has faced one of the most severe sell-offs in its history, dropping over 20% in just two days, reflecting investor concerns about AI coding tools potentially disrupting the industry.
- Significant Stock Impact: Stocks like Expedia have fallen 15% in the last two trading days, indicating investor fears that AI-powered search and booking tools could disintermediate traditional booking sites, leading to a perception that nearly all stocks are replaceable by AI.
- Market Sentiment Deterioration: On February 5, 2026, IGV traded at $79.27, slightly above the
See More
