Should I Buy EXPE? EXPE 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Expedia Group Inc (EXPE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

236.850

1 Day change

2.40%

52 Week Range

303.800

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: price momentum is still deteriorating (bearish MACD expansion) and the stock is heading into earnings (2026-02-12) with very elevated implied volatility.
Attractive longer-term fundamental backdrop (travel demand + strong FY2025 Q3 growth), but the near-term setup favors waiting for either (1) a clean rebound/confirmation above key levels or (2) post-earnings clarity.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
No supportive “smart money” urgency indicated: hedge funds/insiders neutral; no recent congress trading data.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram at -5.123 (below zero) and negatively expanding → downside momentum remains in control.
RSI: RSI(6) at 24.2 → oversold/mean-reversion potential, but oversold alone is not a buy trigger while MACD worsens.
Moving averages: converging MAs → transition phase, but not yet confirming a new uptrend.
Levels: Price (~236–237) is sitting just above S1 ~232.9 (near-term support). A breakdown below ~233 increases risk toward S2 ~218.3. Upside recovery likely needs to reclaim the pivot ~256.5 to shift the technical tone.
Pattern-based short-horizon odds provided: next day slightly negative bias; next week modestly positive; next month mildly negative → choppy, not a clean entry window.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: OI put/call > 1 suggests more outstanding put protection (cautious to bearish hedging). Daily volume put/call < 1 suggests today’s flow leaned somewhat more to calls (tactical dip-buying), but not overwhelmingly.
Volatility: 30D IV 65.2 with IV percentile ~94 → options are pricing a large move (earnings soon) and premiums are expensive; this typically signals heightened event risk rather than a calm “buy-the-dip” environment.
Activity: today’s volume below recent averages (per provided vs-avg metrics), implying no strong conviction surge in fresh options demand.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- News: Expanded partnership makes Affirm the exclusive BNPL option for major Expedia travel brands in the U.S. → potential conversion lift and product/checkout support.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Technical risk: bearish momentum still accelerating downward (MACD negative and expanding).
- Earnings risk: with IV extremely high, even “good” results can be punished if expectations are already priced in.
- Street concern recurring theme: AI disintermediation/agentic AI remains an overhang on OTA multiples and long-term traffic acquisition dynamics.
- Options positioning: OI put/call > 1 signals meaningful hedging demand.
- If ~233 support fails, technical downside opens toward ~218.

Financial Performance

Latest provided quarter: FY2025 Q3.
Revenue: $4.412B, +8.67% YoY → steady top-line growth.
Profitability: Net income $959M, +40.2% YoY; EPS $7.32, +45.24% YoY → strong operating leverage.
Gross margin: 86.38%, up +1.33% YoY → margin trend improving.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: a clear wave of price target increases across the Street (UBS, Goldman, Barclays, Wells Fargo, BTIG, Bernstein, Wedbush, BofA, Jefferies), indicating improved confidence in the 2026 backdrop.
Ratings mix: multiple Buys (e.g., Goldman, BTIG, BofA) but also several Neutral/Equal Weight/Hold stances (UBS, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Bernstein, Wedbush, Jefferies, BNP initiation Neutral).
Wall Street “pros”: improving travel/OTA demand, raised forecasts/targets, and reduced near-term fear around AI disintermediation vs prior periods.
Wall Street “cons”: expectations are high (“high buyside bar”), ongoing AI/agentic disruption debate, and concerns that investment cycles can limit margin expansion/multiple upside.

28 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast EXPE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EXPE is 284.79 USD with a low forecast of 220 USD and a high forecast of 360 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

9 Buy

19 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 231.300

Low

220

Averages

284.79

High

360

Current: 231.300

Low

220

Averages

284.79

High

360

Wedbush

Neutral

downgrade

$290 -> $260

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

Reason

Wedbush

Price Target

$290 -> $260

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

Wedbush lowered the firm's price target on Expedia to $260 from $290 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm notes management has observed healthier sentiment and a more constructive demand backdrop versus initial expectations as the company works to demonstrate steady demand improvement across all key brands. Commentary has been encouraging vs. initial expectations, with management observing longer lengths of stay and extended booking windows last quarter. Wedbush sees upside to near-term estimates, though it remains sidelined and waits for more evidence of sustained improvements in demand trends.

UBS

Neutral

maintain

$257 -> $270

2026-02-03

Reason

UBS

Price Target

$257 -> $270

2026-02-03

maintain

Neutral

Reason

UBS raised the firm's price target on Expedia to $270 from $257 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

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EXPE Should I Buy

EXPE Should I Buy

Should You Buy Expedia Group Inc (EXPE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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