BJ's Wholesale Included in Evercore ISI's 'Tactical Outperform' List
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Aug 18 2025
0mins
Should l Buy BJ?
Analyst Recommendation: Evercore ISI analyst Greg Melich has added BJ's Wholesale to the "Tactical Outperform" list ahead of its fiscal Q2 earnings release on August 22.
Earnings Expectations: There are widespread expectations for a Q2 comparable sales miss and softening earnings guidance.
Future Outlook: The firm believes that comparable sales will improve in the second half of the year, contrary to Street expectations.
Price Target: Melich maintains an In Line rating with a price target of $117 on BJ's Wholesale shares.
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Analyst Views on BJ
Wall Street analysts forecast BJ stock price to rise
17 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
7 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 100.560
Low
90.00
Averages
104.43
High
123.00
Current: 100.560
Low
90.00
Averages
104.43
High
123.00
About BJ
BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. is an operator of membership warehouse clubs concentrated primarily on the eastern half of the United States. The Company provides a wide assortment of fresh foods, produce, a full-service deli, fresh bakery, household essentials and gas. It also offers technology, home decor, apparel, seasonal items, among others. It groups its merchandise offerings into two divisions: perishables, grocery and sundries, and general merchandise and services. Perishables, grocery, and sundries consist of meat, produce, dairy, deli and frozen products, packaged foods, beverages, detergents, disinfectants, paper products, beauty care, adult and baby care, and pet foods. General merchandise and services consist of electronics, apparel, seasonal goods, small appliances, televisions, furniture, optical, tires and third-party gift cards. It offers specialty services, such as full-service optical centers, tire installation services, a propane tank filling service, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
JPMorgan: Costco to Benefit Most from Tax Season
- Tax Season Gains: JPMorgan analysts highlight that Costco is poised to benefit the most in the upcoming tax season, as consumers are expected to receive larger refunds, particularly compared to BJ's Wholesale and Walmart's Sam's Club.
- Market Performance Insight: Costco's stock has risen about 15% year-to-date in 2026, recovering from a 6% decline in 2025, indicating strong potential for recovery driven by tax stimulus.
- Consumer Demographic Advantage: With a membership base skewed towards mid- to high-end consumers, analysts believe Costco is well-positioned to attract shoppers during the tax season, especially with its strong performance in big-ticket merchandise.
- Overall Retail Impact: JPMorgan estimates that last year's tax law changes could lead to over a 1% increase in core retail sales in 2026, with the impact being particularly pronounced during the tax refund season, further solidifying Costco's market position.
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Investment Outlook for Costco Wholesale
- Consistent Performance: As of November 23, 2025, Costco's same-store sales grew by 3.1% in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, demonstrating strong market resilience and ongoing revenue growth potential amid declining consumer spending.
- Clear Expansion Plans: The company plans to open 28 new warehouses in fiscal 2026, with management explicitly stating a goal of at least 30 net new openings per year, which will further drive future revenue growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 7.6% from fiscal 2025 to 2028.
- High Market Valuation: Costco's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 52.9, which is 106% higher than the S&P 500 index and represents premiums of 18% and 138% over competitors Walmart and BJ's Wholesale, indicating strong market recognition of its stable financial performance.
- Investor Holding Recommendation: Although Costco's stock is currently 8% below its peak, it has risen 15% in 2026, and given the solid fundamentals, it makes sense to hold the stock without recommending new purchases or sales at this time.
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Costco's Financial Performance Remains Steady Amid Market Challenges
- Stable Financial Performance: Costco's ability to maintain consistent financial performance across various macroeconomic scenarios reduces investor risk, with a current P/E ratio of 52.9, which is 106% higher than the S&P 500, indicating a high market valuation.
- Expansion Plans: Management aims to open at least 30 new warehouses annually, with 28 expected in fiscal 2026, supporting stable revenue growth; analysts project a 7.6% compound annual growth rate in revenue from fiscal 2025 to 2028.
- Sales Growth Trend: In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, same-store sales increased by 3.1%, demonstrating Costco's resilience and appeal even as consumer spending tightens, highlighting its strong market position.
- Investor Perspective: Despite a 15% rise in Costco's stock in 2026, analysts suggest it is not a buying opportunity at this time, recommending existing shareholders to hold, reflecting solid fundamentals but high market valuation.
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- Investment Opportunity: The decline in retail stock prices may attract bargain hunters seeking to capitalize on lower valuations.
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BJ's Wholesale Club to Open Second BJ's Market Location in Florida
- New Store Opening: BJ's Wholesale Club is set to open its second BJ's Market in Delray Beach, Florida, covering approximately 55,000 square feet, which is about half the size of a typical BJ's store, indicating the company's confidence in a smaller grocery-centric warehouse model.
- Market Positioning: The new location is strategically situated in a former Winn-Dixie site, positioned between several full-size BJ's clubs in South Florida, aiming to attract convenience-oriented shoppers and enhance market penetration.
- Innovation Lab: BJ's Market serves as an innovation lab, offering fresh food and seasonal items while integrating digital tools like ExpressPay and same-day delivery to enhance customer experience and drive membership traffic.
- Strategic Implications: This move not only provides BJ's with a new lever for growth with lower capital intensity but also helps the company expand in mature markets, although investors will need to monitor unit economics and potential competitive impacts.
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JPMorgan: Costco to Benefit Most from Tax Season
- Tax Season Gains: JPMorgan analysts highlight that Costco is poised to benefit the most in the upcoming tax season, as consumers are expected to receive larger refunds, particularly compared to BJ's Wholesale and Walmart's Sam's Club.
- Market Performance Insight: Costco's stock has risen about 15% year-to-date in 2026, recovering from a 6% decline in 2025, indicating strong potential for recovery driven by tax stimulus.
- Consumer Demographic Advantage: With a membership base skewed towards mid- to high-end consumers, analysts believe Costco is well-positioned to attract shoppers during the tax season, especially with its strong performance in big-ticket merchandise.
- Overall Retail Impact: JPMorgan estimates that last year's tax law changes could lead to over a 1% increase in core retail sales in 2026, with the impact being particularly pronounced during the tax refund season, further solidifying Costco's market position.
See More
Investment Outlook for Costco Wholesale
- Consistent Performance: As of November 23, 2025, Costco's same-store sales grew by 3.1% in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, demonstrating strong market resilience and ongoing revenue growth potential amid declining consumer spending.
- Clear Expansion Plans: The company plans to open 28 new warehouses in fiscal 2026, with management explicitly stating a goal of at least 30 net new openings per year, which will further drive future revenue growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 7.6% from fiscal 2025 to 2028.
- High Market Valuation: Costco's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 52.9, which is 106% higher than the S&P 500 index and represents premiums of 18% and 138% over competitors Walmart and BJ's Wholesale, indicating strong market recognition of its stable financial performance.
- Investor Holding Recommendation: Although Costco's stock is currently 8% below its peak, it has risen 15% in 2026, and given the solid fundamentals, it makes sense to hold the stock without recommending new purchases or sales at this time.
See More
Costco's Financial Performance Remains Steady Amid Market Challenges
- Stable Financial Performance: Costco's ability to maintain consistent financial performance across various macroeconomic scenarios reduces investor risk, with a current P/E ratio of 52.9, which is 106% higher than the S&P 500, indicating a high market valuation.
- Expansion Plans: Management aims to open at least 30 new warehouses annually, with 28 expected in fiscal 2026, supporting stable revenue growth; analysts project a 7.6% compound annual growth rate in revenue from fiscal 2025 to 2028.
- Sales Growth Trend: In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, same-store sales increased by 3.1%, demonstrating Costco's resilience and appeal even as consumer spending tightens, highlighting its strong market position.
- Investor Perspective: Despite a 15% rise in Costco's stock in 2026, analysts suggest it is not a buying opportunity at this time, recommending existing shareholders to hold, reflecting solid fundamentals but high market valuation.
See More
"BJ's, Kroger, and 8 Additional Stocks Poised to Gain from Retail Sector Decline"
- Retail Stocks on Sale: Retail stocks are currently undervalued, presenting a potential opportunity for investors looking for bargains.
- Investment Opportunity: The decline in retail stock prices may attract bargain hunters seeking to capitalize on lower valuations.
See More
BJ's Wholesale Club to Open Second BJ's Market Location in Florida
- New Store Opening: BJ's Wholesale Club is set to open its second BJ's Market in Delray Beach, Florida, covering approximately 55,000 square feet, which is about half the size of a typical BJ's store, indicating the company's confidence in a smaller grocery-centric warehouse model.
- Market Positioning: The new location is strategically situated in a former Winn-Dixie site, positioned between several full-size BJ's clubs in South Florida, aiming to attract convenience-oriented shoppers and enhance market penetration.
- Innovation Lab: BJ's Market serves as an innovation lab, offering fresh food and seasonal items while integrating digital tools like ExpressPay and same-day delivery to enhance customer experience and drive membership traffic.
- Strategic Implications: This move not only provides BJ's with a new lever for growth with lower capital intensity but also helps the company expand in mature markets, although investors will need to monitor unit economics and potential competitive impacts.
See More
Latest Rating Changes on Wall Street
- Mizuho Upgrades Applied Materials: Mizuho upgrades Applied Materials (AMAT) to Outperform from Neutral, raising the price target to $370, reflecting confidence in the semiconductor company's accelerating growth, which is expected to boost its stock price.
- Jefferies Downgrades BJ's Wholesale: Jefferies downgrades BJ's Wholesale from Buy to Hold, citing slower growth and increased risks in competitive markets, which may lead to underperformance and affect investor sentiment.
- Morgan Stanley Upgrades Johnson & Johnson: Morgan Stanley upgrades Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) to Overweight with a price target increase to $252, based on expectations of new product contributions and a higher P/E ratio, likely driving future earnings growth.
- Barclays Initiates TPG as Overweight: Barclays initiates TPG with an Overweight rating, highlighting its strong positioning for medium-term growth in a recovering capital markets environment, which is expected to attract more investor interest.
See More
