Should I Buy BJ? BJ 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

100.400

1 Day change

1.13%

52 Week Range

121.100

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

Should I buy Analysis is updated weekly. For real time "Should I Buy" analysis, please sign up to get free answers.

Not a good buy right now: the trend is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and institutional flow is negative (hedge funds selling sharply).
Price (~95.76 pre-market) is stuck between pivot support (94.07) and near-term resistance (97.59); risk/reward is not attractive for an impatient entry unless it breaks and holds above ~97.6.
Options positioning is call-leaning, but elevated implied volatility suggests the market is pricing uncertainty; that’s not the clean “must-buy now” setup.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: Bearish moving average stack (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) indicates the broader downtrend/weak structure is still in control.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.118 (below zero) = bearish momentum, but “negatively contracting” suggests downside pressure is easing rather than accelerating.
RSI: RSI_6 at 61.1 = neutral-to-slightly-strong, not overbought; supports the idea of a bounce attempt, but not a confirmed trend reversal.
Key levels: Pivot 94.07 is the main near-term support; if lost, next supports are ~90.55 then ~88.37. Resistance is ~97.59 then ~99.77; a clean reclaim of 97.6 would improve the buy case.
Probabilistic pattern read: Similar-pattern stats imply modest upside bias over 1W–1M, but it conflicts with the still-bearish MA setup, so confirmation (break above resistance) matters.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment skew: Put/call ratios (OI 0.73; volume 0.39) lean bullish (more calls than puts), suggesting traders are positioning for upside or using calls to express risk.
Volatility: 30D IV ~42.54 vs historical vol ~24.9; IV percentile 88.8 = options are expensive, reflecting elevated uncertainty and making long premium less attractive.
Activity: Today’s volume is below recent averages (today vs 30D avg ~77%), implying no major “urgent” positioning wave.
Interpretation: Options sentiment is supportive, but it’s not strong enough (given high IV + weak technical trend) to override the lack of a clean technical buy signal.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Expansion/format innovation: Opening a second BJ’s Market (smaller, grocery-centric) can broaden addressable demand and improve convenience-driven trips.
- Macro/sector narrative: News flow suggests retail stocks are undervalued; club/value formats can benefit if consumers remain value-focused.
- Potential upside into catalyst: Next earnings scheduled 2026-03-05 (pre-market) can re-rate the stock if comps/margins surprise positively.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Institutional flow: Hedge funds are selling and the selling amount rose ~145% QoQ — a meaningful near-term headwind.
- Analyst skepticism rising: Multiple recent downgrades (Jefferies, Melius, Barclays) cite slowing comps, tougher comparisons, expansion execution risk, and margin pressure.
- Profitability pressure: Latest quarter shows margin and EPS declines despite revenue growth.
- Technical resistance overhead: ~97.6 and ~99.8 are near-term ceilings; failure to break can keep the stock range-bound or rolling over.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2026/Q3.
Growth: Revenue increased to 5.35B (+4.88% YoY), indicating demand is still growing.
Profitability: Net income 152.05M (-2.37% YoY) and EPS 1.15 (-1.71% YoY) declined — growth is not translating into earnings.
Margins: Gross margin 18.97% (down ~0.84 YoY) confirms ongoing margin pressure (likely pricing/investment competition).
Takeaway: Top-line is healthy, but the trend in margins/EPS is weakening — not ideal for an aggressive “buy now” decision.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Clear cooling in Street stance with multiple downgrades in January (Jefferies to Hold PT $90; Melius to Hold PT $100; Barclays to Underweight PT $90; Deutsche resumed Hold PT $97).
Counterpoint: Goldman Sachs still rates Buy but cut PT to $123 from $139 — bullish long-term view, but even the bull is trimming expectations.
Wall Street pros: Defensive/value club format, membership model resilience, and expansion opportunities.
Wall Street cons: Comps potentially decelerating toward ~2% (below consensus), tougher comparisons, execution risk in new markets (West/DFW), and near-term margin/earnings pressure from investments.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; insider trading trend is neutral.

17 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast BJ stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BJ is 107.36 USD with a low forecast of 90 USD and a high forecast of 139 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

10 Buy

6 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 99.280

Low

Averages

107.36

High

139

Current: 99.280

Low

Averages

107.36

High

139

Goldman Sachs

Buy

downgrade

$139 -> $123

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

Reason

Goldman Sachs

Price Target

$139 -> $123

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on BJ's Wholesale to $123 from $139 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

Jefferies

Buy

Hold

downgrade

$120 -> $90

2026-01-28

Reason

Jefferies

Price Target

$120 -> $90

2026-01-28

downgrade

Buy

Hold

Reason

Jefferies downgraded BJ's Wholesale to Hold from Buy with a price target of $90, down from $120. The company's growth is shifting toward competitive markets, which raises its execution and margin risk, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Jefferies' analysis shows that BJ's space in core regions is limited, while its Western expansion and Dallas-Fort Worth rollout add risk. With these potential headwinds and its concerns around food inflation, Jefferies sees the company's comps trending closer to 2%, below the 3% consensus estimates, through 2028.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for BJ

Unlock Now

BJ Should I Buy

BJ Should I Buy

Should You Buy BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch