Validea Martin Zweig Strategy Daily Upgrade Report - 5/9/2025
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 09 2025
0mins
Should l Buy CG?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Carlyle Group Inc. Rating Update: The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) received an upgraded rating from 62% to 85% based on Martin Zweig's growth investment strategy, indicating strong interest in the stock due to its solid fundamentals and valuation.
About Validea and Martin Zweig: Validea is an investment research service that analyzes stocks based on strategies from renowned investors like Martin Zweig, who achieved an average annual return of 15.9% over 15 years with his stock recommendation newsletter.
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Analyst Views on CG
Wall Street analysts forecast CG stock price to rise
12 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 54.450
Low
53.00
Averages
67.91
High
83.00
Current: 54.450
Low
53.00
Averages
67.91
High
83.00
About CG
The Carlyle Group Inc. is a global investment company. The Company's segments include Global Private Equity, Global Credit and Carlyle AlpInvest. The Global Private Equity segment advises the Company's buyout, growth, real estate, infrastructure, and natural resources funds. The segment also includes the NGP Carry Funds advised by NGP Energy Capital Management (NGP). The Global Credit segment advises funds and vehicles that pursue investment strategies including insurance solutions, liquid credit, opportunistic credit, direct lending, asset-backed finance, aviation finance, infrastructure credit, cross-platform credit products, and global capital markets. The Carlyle AlpInvest segment advises global private equity programs that pursue secondary purchases and financing of existing portfolios, managed co-investment programs, and primary fund investments. The Carlyle AlpInvest segment helps investors meet their objectives through tailored portfolio construction and investment selection.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Carlyle Group Dividend and Options Analysis
- Dividend Yield Expectation: Carlyle Group's latest dividend is projected to yield an annualized 2.5%, reflecting increased investor confidence based on historical profitability fluctuations, suggesting a stable dividend outlook.
- Historical Volatility Insight: The trailing twelve-month volatility for Carlyle Group stands at 45%, indicating significant price fluctuations, which necessitates caution for investors considering selling covered calls at the $75 strike price to avoid missing potential upside.
- Options Trading Dynamics: As of Wednesday afternoon, the put volume among S&P 500 components reached 1.16 million contracts, while call volume hit 2.26 million, indicating a strong preference for calls among investors, reflecting an optimistic market sentiment.
- Options Market Trends: The current put:call ratio of 0.51 is significantly lower than the long-term median of 0.65, suggesting a strong bullish outlook among traders, as they increasingly favor call options in their trading strategies.
See More
Carlyle to Acquire 45% Stake in Edelweiss's Nido Home Finance for $232 Million
- Acquisition Scale: U.S.-based asset manager Carlyle is set to acquire a 45% stake in Edelweiss Financial's Nido Home Finance for 21 billion rupees (approximately $232 million), indicating strong interest in India's housing finance market.
- Market Potential: This acquisition not only provides Carlyle with an entry point into the rapidly growing Indian housing finance sector but also enhances Edelweiss's capital base, potentially boosting its competitive position in the market.
- Strategic Collaboration: The partnership formed through this transaction will facilitate resource integration between Carlyle and Edelweiss, driving innovation and business expansion to meet the increasing demand for housing loans.
- Investment Context: Carlyle's investment reflects a long-term commitment to the Indian market, particularly in housing finance, which is expected to lay the groundwork for future growth and profitability.
See More
Private Credit Markets Face AI Disruption Risks
- Increased Pressure on Software Sector: The introduction of new AI tools by Anthropic has triggered a sell-off in software data provider shares, intensifying uncertainty in the private credit market, particularly regarding lending risks to software companies.
- Decline in Asset Management Stocks: Ares Management fell over 12%, Blue Owl Capital dropped more than 8%, and KKR and TPG saw declines of nearly 10% and 7%, respectively, reflecting investor concerns about AI's potential impact on cash flows and default risks.
- Rising Default Risks: UBS Group has warned that in an aggressive disruption scenario, default rates in U.S. private credit could rise to 13%, significantly higher than the projected stress for leveraged loans and high-yield bonds, estimated at 8% and 4%, respectively.
- Liquidity Issues Intensified: Although strains in private credit predate AI concerns, Jeffrey C. Hooke noted that existing liquidity and loan extension issues have been exacerbated by recent developments, adding new challenges to an already pressured sector.
See More
Asset Managers Face AI-Driven Shock Amid Software Selloff
- Market Capitalization Loss: The software sector's selloff has wiped out nearly $1 trillion in market capitalization, leading the Dow Jones US Asset Managers Index to decline nearly 5% this week, reflecting investor concerns over loan and leverage exposure.
- Declining Private Equity Deal Volumes: Morgan Stanley noted that technology services deal volumes account for nearly 21% of overall private equity activity, with TPG, Carlyle, and KKR slightly above this level, indicating weakened market confidence in software-related investments.
- Rising Loan Risks: Software borrowers are shouldering an average debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 7.4 times, significantly higher than the 5.9 times average across a $1 trillion loan pool studied by KBRA, highlighting the private credit market's heavy reliance on the software sector and its associated risks.
- Portfolio Review: Companies like Ares and KKR are reviewing their portfolios to assess the impact of AI on their software investments, demonstrating a cautious approach among asset managers in the face of market volatility.
See More
Carlyle Group Reports Record Q4 2025 Earnings Performance
- Record Performance: Carlyle Group achieved a record fee-related earnings of $1.2 billion in 2025, reflecting a 12% year-over-year growth that significantly exceeded initial targets, showcasing robust business growth potential.
- Assets Under Management Surge: By the end of 2025, Carlyle's assets under management reached $477 billion, positioning the firm as a leader in sponsor-backed IPOs, thereby solidifying its market dominance.
- Transaction Fees Soar: The firm reported transaction fees of $225 million in 2025, up nearly 40% year-over-year, which not only highlights strong market performance but also lays a solid foundation for future revenue growth.
- Optimistic Outlook: Management anticipates continued growth into 2026, supported by global wealth expansion and improving capital market conditions, and plans to share multi-year financial targets at the upcoming shareholder update, further boosting investor confidence.
See More
Carlyle Group Q4 Earnings Exceed Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Carlyle Group reported Q4 distributable EPS of $1.01, surpassing the analyst estimate of $0.99, and rising from $0.96 in Q3 and $0.92 a year ago, indicating sustained profitability improvements.
- Significant Revenue Growth: The total segment revenue for Q4 reached $1.09 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.05 billion, and increasing from $782.5 million in the prior quarter and $948.5 million a year ago, reflecting strong market performance.
- Asset Management Expansion: As of December 31, 2025, Carlyle's total assets under management grew to $477 billion, up 0.6% quarter-over-quarter and 8% year-over-year, driven by a 20% increase in Carlyle AlpInvest AUM, showcasing robust growth potential in asset management.
- Strong Inflows: The firm saw $9.2 billion in inflows during Q4, down from $16.9 billion in Q3, yet total inflows for the year grew by 32% to $53.7 billion, indicating strong demand in global credit and asset-backed financing sectors.
See More
Carlyle Group Dividend and Options Analysis
- Dividend Yield Expectation: Carlyle Group's latest dividend is projected to yield an annualized 2.5%, reflecting increased investor confidence based on historical profitability fluctuations, suggesting a stable dividend outlook.
- Historical Volatility Insight: The trailing twelve-month volatility for Carlyle Group stands at 45%, indicating significant price fluctuations, which necessitates caution for investors considering selling covered calls at the $75 strike price to avoid missing potential upside.
- Options Trading Dynamics: As of Wednesday afternoon, the put volume among S&P 500 components reached 1.16 million contracts, while call volume hit 2.26 million, indicating a strong preference for calls among investors, reflecting an optimistic market sentiment.
- Options Market Trends: The current put:call ratio of 0.51 is significantly lower than the long-term median of 0.65, suggesting a strong bullish outlook among traders, as they increasingly favor call options in their trading strategies.
See More
Carlyle to Acquire 45% Stake in Edelweiss's Nido Home Finance for $232 Million
- Acquisition Scale: U.S.-based asset manager Carlyle is set to acquire a 45% stake in Edelweiss Financial's Nido Home Finance for 21 billion rupees (approximately $232 million), indicating strong interest in India's housing finance market.
- Market Potential: This acquisition not only provides Carlyle with an entry point into the rapidly growing Indian housing finance sector but also enhances Edelweiss's capital base, potentially boosting its competitive position in the market.
- Strategic Collaboration: The partnership formed through this transaction will facilitate resource integration between Carlyle and Edelweiss, driving innovation and business expansion to meet the increasing demand for housing loans.
- Investment Context: Carlyle's investment reflects a long-term commitment to the Indian market, particularly in housing finance, which is expected to lay the groundwork for future growth and profitability.
See More
Private Credit Markets Face AI Disruption Risks
- Increased Pressure on Software Sector: The introduction of new AI tools by Anthropic has triggered a sell-off in software data provider shares, intensifying uncertainty in the private credit market, particularly regarding lending risks to software companies.
- Decline in Asset Management Stocks: Ares Management fell over 12%, Blue Owl Capital dropped more than 8%, and KKR and TPG saw declines of nearly 10% and 7%, respectively, reflecting investor concerns about AI's potential impact on cash flows and default risks.
- Rising Default Risks: UBS Group has warned that in an aggressive disruption scenario, default rates in U.S. private credit could rise to 13%, significantly higher than the projected stress for leveraged loans and high-yield bonds, estimated at 8% and 4%, respectively.
- Liquidity Issues Intensified: Although strains in private credit predate AI concerns, Jeffrey C. Hooke noted that existing liquidity and loan extension issues have been exacerbated by recent developments, adding new challenges to an already pressured sector.
See More
Asset Managers Face AI-Driven Shock Amid Software Selloff
- Market Capitalization Loss: The software sector's selloff has wiped out nearly $1 trillion in market capitalization, leading the Dow Jones US Asset Managers Index to decline nearly 5% this week, reflecting investor concerns over loan and leverage exposure.
- Declining Private Equity Deal Volumes: Morgan Stanley noted that technology services deal volumes account for nearly 21% of overall private equity activity, with TPG, Carlyle, and KKR slightly above this level, indicating weakened market confidence in software-related investments.
- Rising Loan Risks: Software borrowers are shouldering an average debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 7.4 times, significantly higher than the 5.9 times average across a $1 trillion loan pool studied by KBRA, highlighting the private credit market's heavy reliance on the software sector and its associated risks.
- Portfolio Review: Companies like Ares and KKR are reviewing their portfolios to assess the impact of AI on their software investments, demonstrating a cautious approach among asset managers in the face of market volatility.
See More
Carlyle Group Reports Record Q4 2025 Earnings Performance
- Record Performance: Carlyle Group achieved a record fee-related earnings of $1.2 billion in 2025, reflecting a 12% year-over-year growth that significantly exceeded initial targets, showcasing robust business growth potential.
- Assets Under Management Surge: By the end of 2025, Carlyle's assets under management reached $477 billion, positioning the firm as a leader in sponsor-backed IPOs, thereby solidifying its market dominance.
- Transaction Fees Soar: The firm reported transaction fees of $225 million in 2025, up nearly 40% year-over-year, which not only highlights strong market performance but also lays a solid foundation for future revenue growth.
- Optimistic Outlook: Management anticipates continued growth into 2026, supported by global wealth expansion and improving capital market conditions, and plans to share multi-year financial targets at the upcoming shareholder update, further boosting investor confidence.
See More
Carlyle Group Q4 Earnings Exceed Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Carlyle Group reported Q4 distributable EPS of $1.01, surpassing the analyst estimate of $0.99, and rising from $0.96 in Q3 and $0.92 a year ago, indicating sustained profitability improvements.
- Significant Revenue Growth: The total segment revenue for Q4 reached $1.09 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.05 billion, and increasing from $782.5 million in the prior quarter and $948.5 million a year ago, reflecting strong market performance.
- Asset Management Expansion: As of December 31, 2025, Carlyle's total assets under management grew to $477 billion, up 0.6% quarter-over-quarter and 8% year-over-year, driven by a 20% increase in Carlyle AlpInvest AUM, showcasing robust growth potential in asset management.
- Strong Inflows: The firm saw $9.2 billion in inflows during Q4, down from $16.9 billion in Q3, yet total inflows for the year grew by 32% to $53.7 billion, indicating strong demand in global credit and asset-backed financing sectors.
See More
