Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: trend is still bearish (MACD negative and worsening) and the pattern-based forecast skews slightly negative into earnings.
While options positioning is bullish-leaning (call-heavy), the stock is sitting just above support and could easily break lower if earnings disappoint on 2026-02-06 (pre-market).
Technical Analysis
Price context (pre-market): ~58.28, sitting just above S1 support at 57.292; next support S2 at 55.485. Key upside pivot/resistance is ~60.216 then 63.14.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.754 and negatively expanding → downside momentum is strengthening.
RSI(6) ~28.97 → near-oversold/washed-out, which can allow bounces, but not a confirmed reversal signal by itself.
Moving averages: converging → no clear trend change confirmation yet.
Pattern/quant read: similar-candle analog suggests ~60% chance of small drift lower (-0.57% next day, -0.59% next week).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/sentiment: Put/Call ratios (OI 0.58, Volume 0.3) indicate call-heavy interest → more bullish sentiment/positioning than bearish hedging.
Volatility: IV (30d) ~36.33 vs HV ~37.02; IV Rank ~5 and IV percentile ~35 → options are relatively cheap vs the past year, suggesting the market is not pricing extreme moves.
Activity: today’s option volume (~1,145) is ~65% of 30D average → not a strong “rush” into protection/speculation; OI is elevated (today vs avg ~109.6%), implying positioning exists but without a major new surge.
Technical Summary
Sell
6
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
Near-term event: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-06 (pre-market) could catalyze a rebound if fees/realizations and forward commentary improve.
News/Street tone: Goldman Sachs highlighted Carlyle as a buy ahead of earnings (supports near-term optimism).
Sector backdrop: analysts cite improving deal activity and a better start to 2026 for alternative asset managers, potentially supporting earnings power and realizations into 2026.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
showed sharp YoY deterioration (revenue, net income, EPS), which can weigh on sentiment into the print.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 780.5M, -47.5% YoY (sharp contraction).
Net income: 0.9M, -99.85% YoY (profitability collapsed).
EPS: down to ~0 (-100% YoY).
Gross margin: 73.47%, -15.62% YoY.
Overall: the latest quarter snapshot shows significant weakening vs prior year, increasing reliance on the upcoming earnings report/guidance to change the narrative.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: price targets have been raised into late Jan 2026.
Morgan Stanley (2026-01-27): PT raised to $71 (from $67), rating Equal Weight.
Evercore ISI (2026-01-22): PT raised to $62 (from $57), rating In Line.
Wall Street pros: improving deal activity backdrop, optimism for stronger monetizations in 2026, and supportive capital markets narrative.
Wall Street cons: despite higher PTs, key firms remain neutral (Equal Weight/In Line), implying upside exists but not enough (yet) to justify a strong buy rating; realizations expected weaker in Q4 per Evercore preview.
Politicians/congress trading: No recent congress trading data available (no signal from that channel).
Wall Street analysts forecast CG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CG is 67.91 USD with a low forecast of 53 USD and a high forecast of 83 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CG is 67.91 USD with a low forecast of 53 USD and a high forecast of 83 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 55.410
Low
53
Averages
67.91
High
83
Current: 55.410
Low
53
Averages
67.91
High
83
Morgan Stanley
Michael Cyprys
Equal Weight
maintain
$67 -> $71
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Michael Cyprys
Price Target
$67 -> $71
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Cyprys raised the firm's price target on Carlyle to $71 from $67 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Ramping deal activity should be supportive for the alternative asset managers into Q4 and 2026, says the analyst, who raised EPS estimates by 4% and 1% ahead of consensus on average among the group as part of the firm's Q4 earnings preview.
Evercore ISI
In Line
maintain
$57 -> $62
2026-01-22
Reason
Evercore ISI
Price Target
$57 -> $62
2026-01-22
maintain
In Line
Reason
Evercore ISI raised the firm's price target on Carlyle to $62 from $57 and keeps an In Line rating on the shares. 2026 is off to a better start for alternative asset managers, with stocks up about 3% year-to-date as the sector navigates a tricky landscape, the analyst tells investors in a preview for the group. Realizations are expected to be weaker in Q4, but there's optimism for strong monetizations in 2026 due to a favorable capital markets environment, the analyst added.
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