Cleveland-Cliffs Reports Disappointing Q4 Results Amid Optimism for 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 6 days ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Disappointing Performance: Cleveland-Cliffs reported flat sales in Q4, failing to meet analysts' expectations for mid-single-digit growth, resulting in a 25% drop in stock price despite a 50% increase over the past six months.
- Loss Exceeds Expectations: The company's quarterly loss was greater than anticipated, although it showed improvement compared to the previous year, highlighting ongoing challenges amid a sluggish automotive market and weak Canadian demand.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: CEO Lourenco Goncalves noted improvements entering 2026, having signed multi-year contracts with major automotive customers, reduced unit costs, extended debt maturities, and lowered capital expenditures, indicating proactive measures to address challenges.
- Expected Shipment Growth: Cleveland-Cliffs anticipates a shipment volume increase of about 3.4% in 2026, aligning with Nucor's 5% growth forecast, suggesting a recovery in steel demand, while investors await further details on strategic partnerships.
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Analyst Views on CLF
Wall Street analysts forecast CLF stock price to rise
9 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
5 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 10.760
Low
5.75
Averages
12.78
High
17.00
Current: 10.760
Low
5.75
Averages
12.78
High
17.00
About CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a steel producer with a focus on value-added sheet products, particularly for the automotive industry in North America. The Company is vertically integrated from the mining of iron ore, production of pellets and direct reduced iron, and processing of ferrous scrap through primary steelmaking and downstream finishing, stamping, tooling, and tubing. Its offering includes advanced high-strength steel, hot-dipped galvanized, aluminized, galvalume, electrogalvanized, galvanneal, hot-rolled coil (HRC), cold-rolled coil, plate, grain oriented electrical steel (GOES), non-oriented electrical steel (NOES), stainless steels, tool and die, stamped components, rail, slab and cast ingot. Its Other Businesses primarily include the Tubular and Tooling and Stamping segments that provide customer solutions with carbon and stainless steel tubing products, advanced-engineered solutions, tool design and build, hot- and cold-stamped steel components and complex assemblies.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Turiya Advisors Acquires $96.28M Stake in Cleveland-Cliffs
- New Investment Position: Turiya Advisors Asia Ltd initiated a new position in Cleveland-Cliffs during Q4 by acquiring 7.25 million shares valued at approximately $96.28 million, representing 14.75% of its reportable assets, indicating a strategic focus on the steel sector.
- Financial Performance Overview: Cleveland-Cliffs reported fourth-quarter revenue of $4.3 billion, flat year-over-year, alongside a net loss of $235 million, with full-year revenue declining from $19.2 billion to $18.6 billion, highlighting the challenges faced amid market fluctuations.
- Market Position Analysis: As a leading North American steel producer with a vertically integrated business model, Cleveland-Cliffs serves key customers in the automotive and infrastructure sectors, underscoring its significant role in economically sensitive industries.
- Investor Focus: Despite quarterly losses, Turiya Advisors' substantial investment suggests confidence in a steel market recovery, particularly in light of improving trade dynamics and automotive demand, which could lead to sustained margin recovery.
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- Inflation Data Impact: The U.S. January Consumer Price Index rose by 2.4% year-over-year, below the expected 2.5%, marking the smallest increase in seven months, which may prompt the Fed to continue cutting rates, thus providing support for the stock market and alleviating concerns over rate hikes.
- Strong Software Stock Performance: Software stocks like Crowdstrike Holdings and ServiceNow rose over 4% and 3%, respectively, lifting the broader market and indicating a rebound in investor confidence in tech stocks, particularly amid rapid advancements in AI technology.
- Metal Stocks Retreat: Reports of the Trump administration's plans to narrow tariffs on steel and aluminum products led to declines in metal companies, with Century Aluminum falling over 7%, reflecting the negative impact of policy changes on the sector.
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Cleveland-Cliffs CEO's Share Sale Sparks Market Concerns
- CEO Share Sale: Cleveland-Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves sold 3 million shares at approximately $12.42 each, totaling about $37.3 million, which represents nearly half of his total holdings, raising investor concerns about the company's future.
- Tariff Uncertainty: Reports of the Trump administration considering lowering steel and aluminum tariffs have caused market fluctuations, although White House officials denied any changes, stating that only the president could announce such adjustments, putting pressure on the company's stock price.
- Retail Sentiment Surge: Despite CLF shares declining over 20% in the past five days, retail sentiment on Stocktwits surged from 'bullish' to 'extremely bullish' within 24 hours, indicating strong investor confidence in the company's future prospects.
- Diverse Market Reactions: Users on Stocktwits expressed that there is 'zero chance' Trump will reduce steel tariffs, encouraging buying the dip, while others suggested the need for new leadership, reflecting varied opinions on the company's governance.
See More
Cleveland-Cliffs Shares Plunge 32.5% Amid Earnings Report
- Significant Losses: Cleveland-Cliffs reported a net loss of $1.4 billion for 2025, nearly double the loss from 2024, reflecting dual pressures from weak automotive market demand and declining steel prices, which has left investors concerned about future prospects.
- Contract Termination Impact: The company ended a five-year steel slab contract with ArcelorMittal USA in 2025 due to unprofitability driven by tariff-induced price gaps, a decision that will affect future revenue streams significantly.
- Executive Sell-off Triggers Panic: CEO Lourenco Goncalves sold three million shares at an average price of $12.42 on February 11, and while executive sales may be for tax planning, the magnitude of the sale during a stock slump has unsettled investors.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Despite current challenges, management anticipates a strong recovery in 2026, with automotive volumes rebounding and rising steel prices expected to drive revenue growth, particularly with hot-rolled oil-steel prices projected to be nearly $60 per ton higher sequentially.
See More
US Stocks Edge Up, Led by Chipmakers' Gains
- Chipmaker Rebound: Applied Materials (AMAT) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.38, surpassing the consensus of $2.21, leading to a 10% stock price increase that helped lift the broader market, indicating strong recovery potential in tech stocks.
- Inflation Data Impact: The US January CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, below the expected 2.5%, which may prompt the Fed to continue cutting rates, with the 10-year T-note yield falling to 4.05%, providing support for the market.
- Earnings Performance: Over two-thirds of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 76% exceeding expectations, and Q4 earnings growth is projected at 8.4%, demonstrating corporate resilience and restoring market confidence.
- Market Sentiment Fluctuations: Despite the overall market rise, concerns over AI persist, putting pressure on certain stocks, particularly in tech and logistics, reflecting investor caution regarding future economic prospects.
See More
Cleveland-Cliffs Reports $1.4 Billion Loss in 2025
- Massive Loss: Cleveland-Cliffs reported a staggering $1.4 billion net loss for 2025, nearly double the loss from 2024, highlighting the company's vulnerability under the dual pressures of weak automotive demand and declining steel prices.
- Stock Price Plunge: Following the disappointing earnings report, Cleveland-Cliffs' stock plummeted 32.5% at its lowest point this week, severely undermining investor confidence, particularly after CEO Lourenco Goncalves sold three million shares, which intensified market jitters.
- Recovery Expectations: Despite the poor performance in 2025, management anticipates a strong recovery in 2026, driven by rebounding automotive volumes and rising steel prices, with hot-rolled oil-steel prices expected to be nearly $60 per ton higher sequentially in the first quarter.
- Policy Benefits: Cleveland-Cliffs' Canadian subsidiary Stelco is poised to benefit from the Canadian government's restrictions on steel imports starting December 2025, which will help improve its market conditions and enhance profitability.
See More
Turiya Advisors Acquires $96.28M Stake in Cleveland-Cliffs
- New Investment Position: Turiya Advisors Asia Ltd initiated a new position in Cleveland-Cliffs during Q4 by acquiring 7.25 million shares valued at approximately $96.28 million, representing 14.75% of its reportable assets, indicating a strategic focus on the steel sector.
- Financial Performance Overview: Cleveland-Cliffs reported fourth-quarter revenue of $4.3 billion, flat year-over-year, alongside a net loss of $235 million, with full-year revenue declining from $19.2 billion to $18.6 billion, highlighting the challenges faced amid market fluctuations.
- Market Position Analysis: As a leading North American steel producer with a vertically integrated business model, Cleveland-Cliffs serves key customers in the automotive and infrastructure sectors, underscoring its significant role in economically sensitive industries.
- Investor Focus: Despite quarterly losses, Turiya Advisors' substantial investment suggests confidence in a steel market recovery, particularly in light of improving trade dynamics and automotive demand, which could lead to sustained margin recovery.
See More
U.S. Stocks Close Higher as Software Stocks Recover
- Market Recovery: The S&P 500 index rose by 0.05%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 0.10%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 0.18% on Friday, indicating a recovery after early losses, reflecting cautious optimism among investors regarding future economic prospects.
- Inflation Data Impact: The U.S. January Consumer Price Index rose by 2.4% year-over-year, below the expected 2.5%, marking the smallest increase in seven months, which may prompt the Fed to continue cutting rates, thus providing support for the stock market and alleviating concerns over rate hikes.
- Strong Software Stock Performance: Software stocks like Crowdstrike Holdings and ServiceNow rose over 4% and 3%, respectively, lifting the broader market and indicating a rebound in investor confidence in tech stocks, particularly amid rapid advancements in AI technology.
- Metal Stocks Retreat: Reports of the Trump administration's plans to narrow tariffs on steel and aluminum products led to declines in metal companies, with Century Aluminum falling over 7%, reflecting the negative impact of policy changes on the sector.
See More
Cleveland-Cliffs CEO's Share Sale Sparks Market Concerns
- CEO Share Sale: Cleveland-Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves sold 3 million shares at approximately $12.42 each, totaling about $37.3 million, which represents nearly half of his total holdings, raising investor concerns about the company's future.
- Tariff Uncertainty: Reports of the Trump administration considering lowering steel and aluminum tariffs have caused market fluctuations, although White House officials denied any changes, stating that only the president could announce such adjustments, putting pressure on the company's stock price.
- Retail Sentiment Surge: Despite CLF shares declining over 20% in the past five days, retail sentiment on Stocktwits surged from 'bullish' to 'extremely bullish' within 24 hours, indicating strong investor confidence in the company's future prospects.
- Diverse Market Reactions: Users on Stocktwits expressed that there is 'zero chance' Trump will reduce steel tariffs, encouraging buying the dip, while others suggested the need for new leadership, reflecting varied opinions on the company's governance.
See More
Cleveland-Cliffs Shares Plunge 32.5% Amid Earnings Report
- Significant Losses: Cleveland-Cliffs reported a net loss of $1.4 billion for 2025, nearly double the loss from 2024, reflecting dual pressures from weak automotive market demand and declining steel prices, which has left investors concerned about future prospects.
- Contract Termination Impact: The company ended a five-year steel slab contract with ArcelorMittal USA in 2025 due to unprofitability driven by tariff-induced price gaps, a decision that will affect future revenue streams significantly.
- Executive Sell-off Triggers Panic: CEO Lourenco Goncalves sold three million shares at an average price of $12.42 on February 11, and while executive sales may be for tax planning, the magnitude of the sale during a stock slump has unsettled investors.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Despite current challenges, management anticipates a strong recovery in 2026, with automotive volumes rebounding and rising steel prices expected to drive revenue growth, particularly with hot-rolled oil-steel prices projected to be nearly $60 per ton higher sequentially.
See More
US Stocks Edge Up, Led by Chipmakers' Gains
- Chipmaker Rebound: Applied Materials (AMAT) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.38, surpassing the consensus of $2.21, leading to a 10% stock price increase that helped lift the broader market, indicating strong recovery potential in tech stocks.
- Inflation Data Impact: The US January CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, below the expected 2.5%, which may prompt the Fed to continue cutting rates, with the 10-year T-note yield falling to 4.05%, providing support for the market.
- Earnings Performance: Over two-thirds of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 76% exceeding expectations, and Q4 earnings growth is projected at 8.4%, demonstrating corporate resilience and restoring market confidence.
- Market Sentiment Fluctuations: Despite the overall market rise, concerns over AI persist, putting pressure on certain stocks, particularly in tech and logistics, reflecting investor caution regarding future economic prospects.
See More
Cleveland-Cliffs Reports $1.4 Billion Loss in 2025
- Massive Loss: Cleveland-Cliffs reported a staggering $1.4 billion net loss for 2025, nearly double the loss from 2024, highlighting the company's vulnerability under the dual pressures of weak automotive demand and declining steel prices.
- Stock Price Plunge: Following the disappointing earnings report, Cleveland-Cliffs' stock plummeted 32.5% at its lowest point this week, severely undermining investor confidence, particularly after CEO Lourenco Goncalves sold three million shares, which intensified market jitters.
- Recovery Expectations: Despite the poor performance in 2025, management anticipates a strong recovery in 2026, driven by rebounding automotive volumes and rising steel prices, with hot-rolled oil-steel prices expected to be nearly $60 per ton higher sequentially in the first quarter.
- Policy Benefits: Cleveland-Cliffs' Canadian subsidiary Stelco is poised to benefit from the Canadian government's restrictions on steel imports starting December 2025, which will help improve its market conditions and enhance profitability.
See More
