Analysis of MP Materials Stock Volatility
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy MP?
Source: Fool
- Stock Volatility: MP Materials' stock has risen 14.6% in 2026, although it has retreated from a 16.3% increase at the end of January, reflecting ongoing market speculation about the prospects of rare-earth companies, with expectations of continued volatility ahead.
- Government Support: USA Rare Earth secured $3.1 billion in funding through an agreement with the U.S. government, which derisks its business plan; this signals ongoing governmental support for rare-earth magnet manufacturers, enhancing MP Materials' market position.
- Market Speculation: Despite the favorable implications of the USA Rare Earth agreement for MP Materials, concerns arose regarding the lack of price-floor commitments, leading to a sell-off in MP Materials' stock as investors grew anxious about future developments.
- Strategic Partnership: Apple's $500 million supply agreement with MP Materials underscores the company's critical role in securing the U.S. supply of rare-earth materials, suggesting it will continue to be favored by both government and market stakeholders.
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Analyst Views on MP
Wall Street analysts forecast MP stock price to rise
11 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 57.300
Low
55.27
Averages
76.13
High
94.00
Current: 57.300
Low
55.27
Averages
76.13
High
94.00
About MP
MP Materials Corp. produces specialty materials that are vital inputs for electrification and other advanced technologies. The Company owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility (Mountain Pass) located in California. It is also developing a rare earth metal, alloy and magnet manufacturing facility in Fort Worth, Texas (Independence Facility). The Company’s segments include Materials and Magnetics. The Materials segment operates Mountain Pass, which produces refined rare earth products as well as rare earth concentrate and related products. The Materials segment primarily generates revenue from sales of rare earth concentrate, primarily sold for further distribution to a single, principal customer in China, and sales of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide and metal, primarily sold to customers in Japan, South Korea, and broader Asia. The Magnetics segment operates the Independence Facility, where it produces magnetic precursor products.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
MP Materials Positioned for Growth Amid Rare Earth Political Landscape
- Government-Backed Price Floor: MP Materials has established a $110/kg price floor for NdPr through a Department of Defense agreement effective October 1, providing robust protection against volatility in the commodity market and ensuring stable profitability.
- Profitability Outlook: JPMorgan analysts expect MP Materials' EBITDA to turn positive in Q4 as DoD top-off payments commence, despite free cash flow pressures from capital expenditures and inventory build, with a long-term EBITDA floor projected at $650 million once production ramps up.
- Strategic Growth Potential: While the near-term market may appear quiet, investors are focused on MP's midstream NdPr production and the initial commercial magnet ramp targeted for the second half of 2026, laying the groundwork for future growth.
- Structural Importance of Rare Earth Security: Analysts emphasize that rare earth security is not cyclical but structural, indicating that MP Materials is not merely mining but building a strategic franchise, with significant growth potential driven by government price support and scaling magnet production.
See More
Competition Intensifies in U.S. Rare Earth Supply Chain
- Market Leadership: MP Materials owns the Mountain Pass mine in California, the only active rare-earth metals mine in the U.S., and is set to boost domestic magnet output to 10,000 metric tons through its Fort Worth Independence factory and the upcoming '10X Facility', thereby solidifying its market leadership.
- Financial Backing: In July 2025, MP Materials received a $400 million investment from the Department of Defense, which will fund the construction of its second magnet factory and includes a 100% purchase agreement for future production, significantly enhancing its financial stability and competitive edge.
- Future Potential: USA Rare Earth controls the Round Top deposit, one of the largest heavy rare-earth element deposits in the U.S., and while it is not operational yet, it aims for commercial production by 2028, potentially offering significant upside for investors if successful.
- Policy Impact: The Trump administration announced a $1.6 billion funding package for USA Rare Earth in early 2026 to support its mine development and the construction of its first magnet factory in Oklahoma, which will help reduce U.S. reliance on Chinese rare earths.
See More
Rising Importance of Rare Earth Materials in the U.S.
- Market Dynamics: MP Materials (NYSE: MP) has seen its stock rise by 14.6% in 2026, although it has retreated from a 16.3% increase at the end of January, indicating ongoing volatility in the rare earth sector and investor scrutiny.
- Government Support Agreement: USA Rare Earth secured $3.1 billion in government funding and private investment through an agreement with the U.S. government, which derisks its business plan and positively influences MP Materials' market outlook.
- Price Floor Risks: Unlike MP Materials, USA Rare Earth did not receive any price-floor commitments from the government, raising market concerns and leading to a sell-off in MP Materials' stock as investors reacted to uncertainties about future developments.
- Strategic Partnership Outlook: MP Materials signed a $500 million supply agreement with Apple, underscoring its critical role in the U.S. rare earth supply chain, and is expected to continue receiving government and market support despite facing political risks.
See More
Analysis of MP Materials Stock Volatility
- Stock Volatility: MP Materials' stock has risen 14.6% in 2026, although it has retreated from a 16.3% increase at the end of January, reflecting ongoing market speculation about the prospects of rare-earth companies, with expectations of continued volatility ahead.
- Government Support: USA Rare Earth secured $3.1 billion in funding through an agreement with the U.S. government, which derisks its business plan; this signals ongoing governmental support for rare-earth magnet manufacturers, enhancing MP Materials' market position.
- Market Speculation: Despite the favorable implications of the USA Rare Earth agreement for MP Materials, concerns arose regarding the lack of price-floor commitments, leading to a sell-off in MP Materials' stock as investors grew anxious about future developments.
- Strategic Partnership: Apple's $500 million supply agreement with MP Materials underscores the company's critical role in securing the U.S. supply of rare-earth materials, suggesting it will continue to be favored by both government and market stakeholders.
See More
Critical Metals Stock Dips Below $10 Amid NATO Tensions
- Stock Volatility: Critical Metals (CRML) has seen its stock price dip below $10 after trading above $10 for over a month, opening at $10.50 today but currently down 8.3%, reflecting market unease about its future prospects.
- Market Reaction: Despite no negative news explaining the decline, investor anxiety is heightened by President Trump's aggressive rhetoric regarding Greenland's acquisition and NATO's military actions in the region, leading to a bearish market sentiment.
- Project Valuation: The Tanbreez Rare Earth Project, currently under development by Critical Metals, was assessed in March 2025 to have a before-tax net present value between $2.7 billion and $3.4 billion, indicating significant project potential, though geopolitical tensions may undermine investor confidence.
- Investor Alternatives: With Operation Arctic Sentry set to commence, conservative investors may prefer lower-risk rare earth investment opportunities like MP Materials stock to avoid the volatility associated with Critical Metals shares.
See More
NATO Conducts Military Exercises in Greenland Amid Tensions
- Stock Price Decline: Critical Metals (NASDAQ: CRML) has fallen back into single-digit territory after trading above $10 for over a month, opening at $10.50 today but currently trading below $10, reflecting an 8.3% drop that raises investor concerns about its future performance.
- Project Valuation: The Tanbreez Rare Earth Project being developed by Critical Metals has a preliminary economic assessment completed in March 2025 indicating a before-tax net present value between $2.7 billion and $3.4 billion, which continues to attract investor interest despite market volatility.
- NATO Military Operations: NATO has launched a new mission, Arctic Sentry, in Greenland to counter President Trump's aggressive stance on the territory's acquisition, with Sweden announcing the deployment of fighter jets and ground troops, indicating an increase in NATO's military presence in the region.
- Investment Recommendations: Despite the volatility surrounding Critical Metals, analysts suggest that conservative investors consider MP Materials as a lower-risk rare earth investment option, particularly in light of the current market uncertainties that may lead to a preference for more stable investment opportunities.
See More
MP Materials Positioned for Growth Amid Rare Earth Political Landscape
- Government-Backed Price Floor: MP Materials has established a $110/kg price floor for NdPr through a Department of Defense agreement effective October 1, providing robust protection against volatility in the commodity market and ensuring stable profitability.
- Profitability Outlook: JPMorgan analysts expect MP Materials' EBITDA to turn positive in Q4 as DoD top-off payments commence, despite free cash flow pressures from capital expenditures and inventory build, with a long-term EBITDA floor projected at $650 million once production ramps up.
- Strategic Growth Potential: While the near-term market may appear quiet, investors are focused on MP's midstream NdPr production and the initial commercial magnet ramp targeted for the second half of 2026, laying the groundwork for future growth.
- Structural Importance of Rare Earth Security: Analysts emphasize that rare earth security is not cyclical but structural, indicating that MP Materials is not merely mining but building a strategic franchise, with significant growth potential driven by government price support and scaling magnet production.
See More
Competition Intensifies in U.S. Rare Earth Supply Chain
- Market Leadership: MP Materials owns the Mountain Pass mine in California, the only active rare-earth metals mine in the U.S., and is set to boost domestic magnet output to 10,000 metric tons through its Fort Worth Independence factory and the upcoming '10X Facility', thereby solidifying its market leadership.
- Financial Backing: In July 2025, MP Materials received a $400 million investment from the Department of Defense, which will fund the construction of its second magnet factory and includes a 100% purchase agreement for future production, significantly enhancing its financial stability and competitive edge.
- Future Potential: USA Rare Earth controls the Round Top deposit, one of the largest heavy rare-earth element deposits in the U.S., and while it is not operational yet, it aims for commercial production by 2028, potentially offering significant upside for investors if successful.
- Policy Impact: The Trump administration announced a $1.6 billion funding package for USA Rare Earth in early 2026 to support its mine development and the construction of its first magnet factory in Oklahoma, which will help reduce U.S. reliance on Chinese rare earths.
See More
Rising Importance of Rare Earth Materials in the U.S.
- Market Dynamics: MP Materials (NYSE: MP) has seen its stock rise by 14.6% in 2026, although it has retreated from a 16.3% increase at the end of January, indicating ongoing volatility in the rare earth sector and investor scrutiny.
- Government Support Agreement: USA Rare Earth secured $3.1 billion in government funding and private investment through an agreement with the U.S. government, which derisks its business plan and positively influences MP Materials' market outlook.
- Price Floor Risks: Unlike MP Materials, USA Rare Earth did not receive any price-floor commitments from the government, raising market concerns and leading to a sell-off in MP Materials' stock as investors reacted to uncertainties about future developments.
- Strategic Partnership Outlook: MP Materials signed a $500 million supply agreement with Apple, underscoring its critical role in the U.S. rare earth supply chain, and is expected to continue receiving government and market support despite facing political risks.
See More
Analysis of MP Materials Stock Volatility
- Stock Volatility: MP Materials' stock has risen 14.6% in 2026, although it has retreated from a 16.3% increase at the end of January, reflecting ongoing market speculation about the prospects of rare-earth companies, with expectations of continued volatility ahead.
- Government Support: USA Rare Earth secured $3.1 billion in funding through an agreement with the U.S. government, which derisks its business plan; this signals ongoing governmental support for rare-earth magnet manufacturers, enhancing MP Materials' market position.
- Market Speculation: Despite the favorable implications of the USA Rare Earth agreement for MP Materials, concerns arose regarding the lack of price-floor commitments, leading to a sell-off in MP Materials' stock as investors grew anxious about future developments.
- Strategic Partnership: Apple's $500 million supply agreement with MP Materials underscores the company's critical role in securing the U.S. supply of rare-earth materials, suggesting it will continue to be favored by both government and market stakeholders.
See More
Critical Metals Stock Dips Below $10 Amid NATO Tensions
- Stock Volatility: Critical Metals (CRML) has seen its stock price dip below $10 after trading above $10 for over a month, opening at $10.50 today but currently down 8.3%, reflecting market unease about its future prospects.
- Market Reaction: Despite no negative news explaining the decline, investor anxiety is heightened by President Trump's aggressive rhetoric regarding Greenland's acquisition and NATO's military actions in the region, leading to a bearish market sentiment.
- Project Valuation: The Tanbreez Rare Earth Project, currently under development by Critical Metals, was assessed in March 2025 to have a before-tax net present value between $2.7 billion and $3.4 billion, indicating significant project potential, though geopolitical tensions may undermine investor confidence.
- Investor Alternatives: With Operation Arctic Sentry set to commence, conservative investors may prefer lower-risk rare earth investment opportunities like MP Materials stock to avoid the volatility associated with Critical Metals shares.
See More
NATO Conducts Military Exercises in Greenland Amid Tensions
- Stock Price Decline: Critical Metals (NASDAQ: CRML) has fallen back into single-digit territory after trading above $10 for over a month, opening at $10.50 today but currently trading below $10, reflecting an 8.3% drop that raises investor concerns about its future performance.
- Project Valuation: The Tanbreez Rare Earth Project being developed by Critical Metals has a preliminary economic assessment completed in March 2025 indicating a before-tax net present value between $2.7 billion and $3.4 billion, which continues to attract investor interest despite market volatility.
- NATO Military Operations: NATO has launched a new mission, Arctic Sentry, in Greenland to counter President Trump's aggressive stance on the territory's acquisition, with Sweden announcing the deployment of fighter jets and ground troops, indicating an increase in NATO's military presence in the region.
- Investment Recommendations: Despite the volatility surrounding Critical Metals, analysts suggest that conservative investors consider MP Materials as a lower-risk rare earth investment option, particularly in light of the current market uncertainties that may lead to a preference for more stable investment opportunities.
See More
