Buy now: the pullback to ~$57 is near key support and is being treated by multiple top banks (notably JPM) as a dip-buying opportunity.
Near-term setup favors a rebound trade: RSI is depressed and options flow is call-leaning, while policy/news flow is increasingly supportive for U.S. critical minerals.
Key level to watch: holding the $54–$58 support zone keeps the bounce thesis intact; a reclaim of ~$64 (pivot) is the first upside confirmation, then ~$70–$74 resistance.
Technical Analysis
Trend/momentum: bearish short-term—MACD histogram is negative (-1.089) and expanding lower, signaling downside momentum is still active.
RSI (6): ~35.1, weak/near-oversold condition; selling pressure looks extended but not yet reversed.
Moving averages: converging MAs suggest the downtrend may be maturing, but there’s no clear bullish crossover confirmation.
Levels: S1 ~57.68 is being tested/breached (price ~57); next support S2 ~53.75. Upside: pivot ~64.04, then R1 ~70.40 and R2 ~74.33.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment tilt: volume put/call at 0.47 indicates bullish near-term positioning (calls outweigh puts on the day).
Positioning: open-interest put/call at 0.90 is more balanced/hedged, suggesting investors still carry meaningful protection.
Volatility: IV30 84.3 with very high IV percentile (86.9) implies the market is pricing large moves (event/policy sensitivity).
Activity: today’s option volume is below the 30-day average (~80.6%), so sentiment is positive but not “crowded.”
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
Policy tailwind: multiple reports of the U.S. pushing minimum pricing/price floors for critical minerals via partnerships (Mexico, EU, Japan) within short timelines—directly supportive for rare-earth economics.
Strategic support theme: continued emphasis on reducing dependence on China and building stockpiles/financing mechanisms (e.g., mineral stockpile initiative; potential Ex-Im capacity expansion) benefits domestically aligned producers like MP.
Company-specific angle from analysts: JPM notes MP disputes the Reuters “stepping back” narrative and reiterates its DoD deal is binding (including a price floor), framing weakness as buyable.
Upcoming catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-26 (after hours) with EPS estimate ~0.03—potential sentiment inflection if profitability trajectory improves.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
and momentum remains bearish (MACD worsening), raising the probability of a flush toward S2 (~53.
before a durable rebound.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $53.55M, down -14.9% YoY (top-line pressure).
Net income: -$41.78M, improved +63.7% YoY (loss narrowing meaningfully).
EPS: -$0.24, improved +50.0% YoY.
Gross margin: -32.53%, improved vs prior year (still negative, but trending better).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent analyst trend is strongly positive: multiple upgrades/initiations to Buy/Overweight/Outperform since mid-Nov 2025 (JPM, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, BMO, Goldman), reinforcing a pro-consensus stance.
Price targets cluster mostly in the low-to-mid $70s (MS $71; DB $71; JPM $74; BMO $75; GS $77) with BofA higher at $94 (trimmed from $112).
Wall Street “pros” view: unique Western Hemisphere scale + mine-to-magnet integration + government alignment/price-floor visibility + upside from downstream magnet/refining deals.
Wall Street “cons” view: macro/commodity demand uncertainty and heavy policy headline sensitivity; execution required to translate strategic positioning into sustained profits.
Influential/politician activity: no recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders are reported as neutral with no notable recent trend.
Wall Street analysts forecast MP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MP is 76.13 USD with a low forecast of 55.27 USD and a high forecast of 94 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MP is 76.13 USD with a low forecast of 55.27 USD and a high forecast of 94 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 56.550
Low
55.27
Averages
76.13
High
94
Current: 56.550
Low
55.27
Averages
76.13
High
94
JPMorgan
Bill Peterson
Strong Buy
maintain
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
Reason
JPMorgan
Bill Peterson
Price Target
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
maintain
Strong Buy
Reason
JPMorgan analyst Bill Peterson says shares of MP Materials traded lower after Reuters reported last night that the Trump administration is "stepping back" from plans to guarantee a minimum price for U.S. critical minerals projects amid a lack of congressional funding. However, in a post on X, MP rebuked the report as "inaccurate, misleading and inconsistent with the facts," noting that its deal with the Department of Defense is binding and remains in force, including the price floor, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan views any pullback in the stock as an opportunity to buy. It continues to view MP's investment case as "unmatched," saying it offers government-backed guaranteed earnings visibility plus potential upside in the coming years.
Morgan Stanley
NULL -> Overweight
upgrade
2025-12-09
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
2025-12-09
upgrade
NULL -> Overweight
Reason
Mixed options sentiment in MP Materials (MP), with shares down 60c near $60.59. Options volume relatively light with 5218 contracts traded and calls leading puts for a put/call ratio of 0.98, compared to a typical level near 0.52. Implied volatility (IV30) dropped 1.48 near 70.03,and below the 52wk median, suggesting an expected daily move of $2.67. Put-call skew flattened, suggesting a modestly bullish tone, following an upgrade to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
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