Airline Stocks Hit Headwinds As Carriers Cut Guidance, ETFs Enter Turbulence
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 25 2025
0mins
Source: Benzinga
Airline Industry Outlook: Major U.S. airlines like American Airlines, Southwest, and Alaska Air have withdrawn their 2025 forecasts due to economic uncertainty, leading to significant declines in their stock prices and affecting airline-themed ETFs such as JETS, IYT, and XTN.
Investor Sentiment: Despite some strong first-quarter results, the overall sentiment remains cautious as airlines face challenges from domestic demand weakness and geopolitical factors, leaving investors in a holding pattern until clearer economic signals emerge.
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Analyst Views on ALK
Wall Street analysts forecast ALK stock price to rise
10 Analyst Rating
10 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 55.690
Low
64.00
Averages
73.00
High
94.00
Current: 55.690
Low
64.00
Averages
73.00
High
94.00
About ALK
Alaska Air Group, Inc. is engaged in operating airlines. The Company operates through its subsidiaries Alaska Airlines, Inc., Hawaiian Holdings, Inc., Horizon Air Industries, Inc., and McGee Air Services. The Company's segments include Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional. The Alaska Airlines segment includes scheduled air transportation on Alaska's Boeing jet aircraft for passengers and cargo. The Hawaiian Airlines segment includes scheduled air transportation on Hawaiian's Boeing and Airbus jet aircraft for passengers and cargo. The Regional segment includes Horizon's and other third-party carriers’ scheduled air transportation on E175 jet aircraft for passengers under capacity purchase agreements (CPAs). The Company serves more than 140 destinations throughout North America, Central America, Asia and across the Pacific. The Company provides freight and mail services (cargo) using both freighter aircraft and the bellies of its passenger aircraft.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Revenue Expectations: The revenue estimate stands at $3.29 billion, representing a 4.8% year-over-year increase; however, the negative EPS outlook may raise investor concerns regarding the company's overall financial health despite revenue growth.
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- Revenue Expectations: The revenue estimate stands at $3.29 billion, representing a 4.8% year-over-year increase; however, the negative EPS outlook may raise investor concerns regarding the company's overall financial health despite revenue growth.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, Alaska Air has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and revenue estimates 63% of the time, indicating a degree of stability in financial performance, although recent revisions show downward trends in both EPS and revenue forecasts.
- Future Outlook: Alaska Air anticipates a 'meaningful' improvement in EPS by 2026 and notes a pickup in bookings late in Q4 2022, which may provide support for a recovery in future performance.
See More
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- Flight Suspension: The FAA temporarily halted all flights within an 11-mile radius of El Paso International Airport due to suspected cartel-operated drones entering U.S. airspace, highlighting significant security concerns.
- Military Response: The U.S. military took action to neutralize the drones using various counter-drone tools, including electronic disruption systems and directed energy weapons, indicating a robust defense against aerial threats.
- Flight Resumption: Hours later, the FAA lifted the restrictions, confirming that commercial aviation was not at risk and normal operations could resume, demonstrating a quick assessment and response to aviation safety.
- Increased Drone Activity: Criminal groups have increasingly deployed drones along the southern border for monitoring and smuggling, with U.S. Northern Command reporting over 1,000 drone incursions monthly, underscoring the growing severity of this emerging threat.
See More
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- Background of Restrictions: The FAA had imposed restrictions on Tuesday night, barring flights within an 11-mile radius of El Paso International Airport and below 18,000 feet for up to 10 days, indicating a serious concern for security issues.
- Local Reaction: Local leaders expressed shock at the sudden decision, with El Paso City Rep. Chris Canales noting that neither local government nor military bases received advance notice, highlighting a lack of transparency in government security management.
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See More
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- Market Resilience: The resilience of transportation shares suggests that investor confidence may remain strong, supporting overall market performance.
- Stock Market Dynamics: The interplay between transportation stocks and broader market trends highlights the importance of sector performance in stock market recovery.
- Investor Sentiment: Positive movements in specific sectors like transportation can influence overall investor sentiment and market outlook.
See More
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- Chip Stocks Rally: Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks performed strongly on Monday, with Sandisk (SNDK) surging over 15% to lead the S&P 500 gainers, reflecting strong demand for tech stocks and a recovery in investor confidence.
- Energy Stocks Under Pressure: Energy producers faced headwinds as WTI crude oil prices fell more than 4%, with Diamondback Energy (FANG) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) both declining over 3%, indicating growing concerns in the energy sector.
- Cryptocurrency Market Retreats: Bitcoin plummeted over 7% to a 9.75-month low, leading to widespread declines in cryptocurrency-related stocks, with Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) and Strategy (MSTR) both dropping over 6%, reflecting weakened investor confidence in the crypto market.
See More
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- Rising Delivery Numbers: The company delivered 600 airplanes last year, nearly double the number from 2024 and the highest since 2018, demonstrating a substantial increase in production capacity.
- Strong Cash Flow: Boeing's cash flow reached $400 million in Q4, nearly double Wall Street's expectations, reflecting improvements in operational efficiency and financial health.
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