Should I Buy ALK? ALK 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

59.450

1 Day change

7.58%

52 Week Range

78.080

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Buy now (tactical buy): Trend is bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 + expanding positive MACD), and Wall Street remains broadly constructive with price targets mostly clustered around the high-60s/low-70s vs. mid-50s price.
Near-term risk is elevated: RSI_6 ~74 (overbought) and pattern stats imply slightly negative next-day/next-week drift, so expect chop/pullback risk even if the bigger trend is up.
Fund flow backdrop helps: Hedge funds are reportedly increasing buying sharply (+298.58% QoQ).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with moving averages stacked positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.565 and expanding → bullish momentum remains intact.
Overbought/entry timing: RSI_6 at ~74 suggests the stock is stretched short-term; odds of a brief mean-reversion dip are higher even within an uptrend.
Key levels:
- Pivot: 51.97 (important trend/structure reference)
- Resistance: R1 55.38 (price is around/just above this pre-market), then R2 57.49
- Support: S1 48.56, then S2 46.46
Quant/pattern note: Similar-pattern projection shows ~60% chance of -0.4% next day and -0.34% next week, but +2.05% over the next month (short-term choppy, medium-term constructive).

Options Data

Neutral

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning (Open Interest PCR 1.05): Slightly more puts than calls in open interest → mildly cautious/hedged positioning.
Flow (Volume PCR 0.28): Calls dominated today’s volume → near-term trading sentiment leaning bullish.
Volatility: 30D IV ~46.66 vs HV ~43.65 (modest premium). IV percentile ~37 and IV rank ~9.8 → volatility is not extreme; options are not pricing an unusually large move.
Activity: Today’s option volume (2,129) is below 30D average (~65% of avg) → not a “crowded” options signal day.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Analyst backdrop is supportive: Multiple firms raised targets into 2026 airline setup; ratings skew Buy/Outperform/Positive.
- Industry narrative into 2026 (per analysts): capacity/pricing discipline, loyalty/ancillary revenue resilience, and “constructive fundamental backdrop.”
- Hedge fund buying trend: Reported +298.58% QoQ increase in buying suggests institutional accumulation.
- Potential catalyst window: Airline earnings/guidance season tone-setting (peer read-throughs can lift the group).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Profitability deterioration (latest quarter): Net income and EPS fell sharply YoY, with margin pressure.
- Short-term technical stretch: RSI ~74 increases probability of near-term pullback/chop.
- Options positioning slightly defensive: Open interest put-call ratio at ~1.05 indicates meaningful hedging.
- No fresh news catalyst this week: Lacks an immediate event-driven push from headlines.
- No proprietary “strong buy” triggers today: No AI Stock Picker or SwingMax entry signal currently.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4
- Revenue: $3.632B, +2.77% YoY (modest top-line growth)
- Net Income: $21M, -70.42% YoY (major profitability drop)
- EPS: $0.18, -67.27% YoY (earnings contraction)
- Gross Margin: 50.17%, -2.11% YoY (margin pressure)
Read-through: Demand/revenue held up, but cost/margin dynamics hurt earnings power—key fundamental “con” despite the improving forward-looking industry narrative.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Net-positive—multiple price target increases in early Jan 2026 (Susquehanna 70 from 52; Citi 69 from 61; BofA 70 from 62; Raymond James 71 from 65), with one minor late-Jan trim (TD Cowen 63 from 64) while maintaining Buy.
Current Street stance (pros): Constructive 2026 setup, improving travel indicators (business travel barometer bottoming), capacity/pricing discipline, and ALK positioned to benefit.
Current Street stance (cons): Guidance risk (expectation for conservative 2026 outlooks) and sensitivity to cost/fuel/operational disruptions; recent earnings/margin softness underscores execution risk.
Targets vs price: Targets mostly in the ~63–71 zone (and one UBS still higher historically), implying meaningful upside from the mid-50s if the 2026 thesis plays out.

10 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ALK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALK is 73 USD with a low forecast of 64 USD and a high forecast of 94 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

10 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 55.260

Low

Averages

High

Current: 55.260

Low

Averages

High

TD Cowen

Tom Fitzgerald

Buy

downgrade

$64 -> $63

AI Analysis

2026-01-30

Reason

TD Cowen

Tom Fitzgerald

Price Target

$64 -> $63

AI Analysis

2026-01-30

downgrade

Buy

Reason

TD Cowen analyst Tom Fitzgerald lowered the firm's price target on Alaska Air to $63 from $64 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated estimates to incorporate guidance for 1Q/FY26

Susquehanna

Positive

maintain

$52 -> $70

2026-01-09

Reason

Susquehanna

Price Target

$52 -> $70

2026-01-09

maintain

Positive

Reason

Susquehanna raised the firm's price target on Alaska Air to $70 from $52 and keeps a Positive rating on the shares as part of a Q4 preview. The firm sees a "constructive fundamental backdrop" for the airlines into fiscal 2026. Select carriers will benefit from brand loyalty and diverse revenue streams, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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ALK Should I Buy

ALK Should I Buy

Should You Buy Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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