A. O. Smith Stock Undervalued by 18%, Future Cash Flow Estimated at $663.7 Million
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 10 2026
0mins
Should l Buy AOS?
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Valuation Assessment: A. O. Smith's current stock price of approximately $70.52 is deemed undervalued by 18% based on a discounted cash flow analysis that estimates its intrinsic value at $86.03, indicating a market underestimation of its future growth potential.
- Cash Flow Forecast: Analysts project A. O. Smith's free cash flow to reach $663.7 million by 2029, providing a positive outlook for future earnings that may attract more investor interest and confidence in the company's financial health.
- P/E Ratio Analysis: With a P/E ratio of 18.51, A. O. Smith trades below the building industry average of 21.56 and peer average of 29.51, highlighting its relative value attractiveness and potentially prompting investors to reassess their investment strategies.
- Market Positioning: Despite a 6.5% return over the past year, A. O. Smith's stock price remains undervalued compared to industry averages, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding its growth potential, which could impact future capital inflows.
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Analyst Views on AOS
Wall Street analysts forecast AOS stock price to fall
8 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 79.620
Low
75.00
Averages
79.17
High
85.00
Current: 79.620
Low
75.00
Averages
79.17
High
85.00
About AOS
A. O. Smith Corporation applies technologies and solutions to products manufactured and marketed worldwide. The Company operates through two segments: North America and Rest of World. Both the segments manufacture and market a comprehensive line of residential and commercial gas and electric water heaters, boilers, tanks, and water treatment products. Its Rest of World segment is primarily comprised of China, Europe, and India. The North America segment serves residential and commercial end markets with a range of products, including water heaters, boilers, water treatment products, and others. The Company also manufactures expansion tanks, commercial solar water heating systems, swimming pool and spa heaters, related products and parts. Its Lochinvar brand is a residential and commercial boiler brand in the United States. Its water softener branded products and problem well water solutions include the Hague, Water-Right, Master Water, Atlantic Filter, Impact, and Water Tec brands.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
A.O. Smith Reports Strong Q4 Earnings Amid Market Challenges
- Earnings Beat: A.O. Smith (AOS) reported adjusted earnings of $0.90 per share for Q4, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.84, indicating improved profitability despite sales pressures.
- Revenue Performance: The company’s Q4 revenue reached $912.5 million, falling short of analysts' expectations of $928 million, reflecting challenges in sales due to weak demand in China.
- Cash Flow and Buybacks: In 2025, A.O. Smith generated $616.8 million in operating cash flow and $546.0 million in free cash flow, while repurchasing 5.9 million shares for $400.8 million, extending its 86-year dividend payment streak.
- 2026 Outlook: A.O. Smith forecasts net sales of $3.9 billion to $4.02 billion for 2026, exceeding the consensus estimate of $3.80 billion, although management remains cautious about challenges in China and stable residential demand in North America.
See More
A. O. Smith Reports Record EPS and Strategic Growth Plans for 2026
- Sales Growth: A. O. Smith reported $3.8 billion in sales for 2025, a slight increase over the previous year, despite a 12% decline in China sales, with North American commercial water heater and boiler volumes partially offsetting this impact.
- Profitability Improvement: The company achieved a record EPS of $3.85, a 6% increase year-over-year, with North America segment earnings of $728 million rising 2% compared to 2024, indicating ongoing margin enhancement.
- Strategic Acquisition: The completion of the Leonard Valve acquisition expands A. O. Smith's reach in the water management market, enhancing digital capabilities and product portfolio, which is expected to drive future growth.
- 2026 Outlook: The company projects an EPS range of $3.85 to $4.15 for 2026, reflecting confidence in future growth, although challenges remain in the Chinese market, where sales are expected to decline in the mid-single digits.
See More
A O Smith AOS Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
See More
A.O. Smith Reports Fourth Quarter Earnings Growth
- Earnings Growth: A.O. Smith's fourth-quarter net income reached $125.4 million, translating to $0.90 per share, which is a significant increase from last year's $109.7 million and $0.75 per share, indicating enhanced profitability.
- Stable Revenue: The company's fourth-quarter revenue stood at $912.5 million, showing a marginal increase of 0.0% from $912.4 million last year, reflecting stable sales performance in the market environment.
- Adjusted Earnings: Excluding non-recurring items, A.O. Smith reported adjusted earnings of $125.4 million, or $0.90 per share, demonstrating the robustness of its core business operations.
- Year-over-Year Comparison: Compared to the same period last year, A.O. Smith achieved growth in both net income and earnings per share, highlighting the company's strong profitability and market adaptability in a competitive landscape.
See More
A.O. Smith Reports Strong 2025 Financial Results with Record EPS
- Solid Sales Performance: A.O. Smith achieved $3.8 billion in sales for 2025, a slight increase of 0.3% year-over-year, demonstrating sustained demand in the water heater and boiler markets despite challenges in residential water heater volumes.
- Profitability Improvement: The company reported net earnings of $546.2 million for 2025, up 2.2% from 2024, with a record EPS of $3.85, reflecting strong performance in the commercial water heater market.
- International Market Challenges: While sales in China decreased by 12%, organic sales in India grew by 13%, showcasing the company's adaptability and growth potential in diversified markets.
- Shareholder Return Strategy: In 2025, A.O. Smith repurchased 5.9 million shares at a cost of $400.8 million and declared a $0.36 per share dividend, marking 86 consecutive years of dividend payments, underscoring the company's commitment to its shareholders.
See More
A.O. Smith Q4 Earnings Exceed Expectations
- Earnings Beat: A.O. Smith reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.90, exceeding expectations by $0.06, indicating strong profitability and recovery in market demand.
- Significant Revenue Growth: The company achieved $3.8 billion in revenue for Q4, a staggering 316.5% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by $2.87 billion, reflecting robust execution and heightened product demand.
- Strong Cash Flow: Free cash flow reached $546 million, fully converting to net earnings, demonstrating effective capital management and providing substantial support for shareholder returns.
- Optimistic Outlook: The company projects diluted EPS for 2026 to be between $3.85 and $4.15, exceeding the market consensus of $3.80, showcasing confidence in future growth and sustained profitability.
See More
A.O. Smith Reports Strong Q4 Earnings Amid Market Challenges
- Earnings Beat: A.O. Smith (AOS) reported adjusted earnings of $0.90 per share for Q4, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.84, indicating improved profitability despite sales pressures.
- Revenue Performance: The company’s Q4 revenue reached $912.5 million, falling short of analysts' expectations of $928 million, reflecting challenges in sales due to weak demand in China.
- Cash Flow and Buybacks: In 2025, A.O. Smith generated $616.8 million in operating cash flow and $546.0 million in free cash flow, while repurchasing 5.9 million shares for $400.8 million, extending its 86-year dividend payment streak.
- 2026 Outlook: A.O. Smith forecasts net sales of $3.9 billion to $4.02 billion for 2026, exceeding the consensus estimate of $3.80 billion, although management remains cautious about challenges in China and stable residential demand in North America.
See More
A. O. Smith Reports Record EPS and Strategic Growth Plans for 2026
- Sales Growth: A. O. Smith reported $3.8 billion in sales for 2025, a slight increase over the previous year, despite a 12% decline in China sales, with North American commercial water heater and boiler volumes partially offsetting this impact.
- Profitability Improvement: The company achieved a record EPS of $3.85, a 6% increase year-over-year, with North America segment earnings of $728 million rising 2% compared to 2024, indicating ongoing margin enhancement.
- Strategic Acquisition: The completion of the Leonard Valve acquisition expands A. O. Smith's reach in the water management market, enhancing digital capabilities and product portfolio, which is expected to drive future growth.
- 2026 Outlook: The company projects an EPS range of $3.85 to $4.15 for 2026, reflecting confidence in future growth, although challenges remain in the Chinese market, where sales are expected to decline in the mid-single digits.
See More
A O Smith AOS Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
See More
A.O. Smith Reports Fourth Quarter Earnings Growth
- Earnings Growth: A.O. Smith's fourth-quarter net income reached $125.4 million, translating to $0.90 per share, which is a significant increase from last year's $109.7 million and $0.75 per share, indicating enhanced profitability.
- Stable Revenue: The company's fourth-quarter revenue stood at $912.5 million, showing a marginal increase of 0.0% from $912.4 million last year, reflecting stable sales performance in the market environment.
- Adjusted Earnings: Excluding non-recurring items, A.O. Smith reported adjusted earnings of $125.4 million, or $0.90 per share, demonstrating the robustness of its core business operations.
- Year-over-Year Comparison: Compared to the same period last year, A.O. Smith achieved growth in both net income and earnings per share, highlighting the company's strong profitability and market adaptability in a competitive landscape.
See More
A.O. Smith Reports Strong 2025 Financial Results with Record EPS
- Solid Sales Performance: A.O. Smith achieved $3.8 billion in sales for 2025, a slight increase of 0.3% year-over-year, demonstrating sustained demand in the water heater and boiler markets despite challenges in residential water heater volumes.
- Profitability Improvement: The company reported net earnings of $546.2 million for 2025, up 2.2% from 2024, with a record EPS of $3.85, reflecting strong performance in the commercial water heater market.
- International Market Challenges: While sales in China decreased by 12%, organic sales in India grew by 13%, showcasing the company's adaptability and growth potential in diversified markets.
- Shareholder Return Strategy: In 2025, A.O. Smith repurchased 5.9 million shares at a cost of $400.8 million and declared a $0.36 per share dividend, marking 86 consecutive years of dividend payments, underscoring the company's commitment to its shareholders.
See More
A.O. Smith Q4 Earnings Exceed Expectations
- Earnings Beat: A.O. Smith reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.90, exceeding expectations by $0.06, indicating strong profitability and recovery in market demand.
- Significant Revenue Growth: The company achieved $3.8 billion in revenue for Q4, a staggering 316.5% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by $2.87 billion, reflecting robust execution and heightened product demand.
- Strong Cash Flow: Free cash flow reached $546 million, fully converting to net earnings, demonstrating effective capital management and providing substantial support for shareholder returns.
- Optimistic Outlook: The company projects diluted EPS for 2026 to be between $3.85 and $4.15, exceeding the market consensus of $3.80, showcasing confidence in future growth and sustained profitability.
See More
