Not a good buy right now at ~$76.34 pre-market: price is extended (near/above resistance) while forward commentary/guidance tone is mixed (China weakness; 2026 revenue guidance light).
Upside looks limited versus most raised targets (clustered around $77–$78 Neutral/Hold), with the main upside case resting on the more bullish $85 target.
Options positioning is bullish (low put/call ratios), but elevated IV suggests the market is already pricing in movement—risk/reward for a new entry here is not attractive.
Volatility: IV_30d 30.17 vs historical vol 22.99 and IV percentile 84.34 → options are relatively expensive, implying elevated expectations are priced in.
Activity: Today’s option volume 41 with call volume 31 vs put volume 10 (call-skew), and open interest ~7,138.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
EPS beat: adjusted EPS $0.90; YoY EPS up 20% and net income up 14.31%.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Revenue growth is essentially flat (2025/Q4 revenue +0.01% YoY), and demand weakness in China was a key drag (reported ~12% sales decline in China).
2026 revenue guidance described as light and EPS midpoint below consensus (limits multiple expansion).
Recent move may have been aided by short covering (less durable demand-driven catalyst).
No supportive insider/hedge fund trend signals (both described as Neutral), and no notable politician/congress activity catalysts.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $912.5M, +0.01% YoY (flat top-line).
Net income: $125.4M, +14.31% YoY (profit growth driven more by efficiency/margins than sales).
EPS: $0.90, +20.00% YoY.
Gross margin: 38.4%, +3.62% YoY (constructive profitability trend, but needs re-acceleration in revenue to sustain stronger upside).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: price targets were lifted across multiple firms after Q4, but ratings are mostly Neutral/Hold.
Baird: Neutral, PT raised to $77 (from $76).
Citi: Neutral, PT raised to $78 (from $72).
Jefferies: Hold, PT $75 (resumed; cautious on shipment trends).
Stifel: Buy, PT raised to $85 (acknowledges mixed quarter; notes short covering).
Wall Street pros: improving margins/earnings resilience, post-earnings PT raises.
Wall Street cons: soft China demand and light 2026 revenue guidance cap enthusiasm; consensus stance remains cautious.
Wall Street analysts forecast AOS stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AOS is 76.86 USD with a low forecast of 72 USD and a high forecast of 85 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AOS stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AOS is 76.86 USD with a low forecast of 72 USD and a high forecast of 85 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 78.110
Low
72
Averages
76.86
High
85
Current: 78.110
Low
72
Averages
76.86
High
85
Baird
Michael Halloran
Neutral
maintain
$76 -> $77
AI Analysis
2026-01-30
Reason
Baird
Michael Halloran
Price Target
$76 -> $77
AI Analysis
2026-01-30
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Baird analyst Michael Halloran raised the firm's price target on A.O. Smith to $77 from $76 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following Q4 results where estimate accleration remains a key catalyst.
Stifel
Nathan Jones
Buy
maintain
$80 -> $85
2026-01-30
Reason
Stifel
Nathan Jones
Price Target
$80 -> $85
2026-01-30
maintain
Buy
Reason
Stifel analyst Nathan Jones raised the firm's price target on A.O. Smith to $85 from $80 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. A. O. Smith reported a Q4 EPS beat, but 2026 revenue guidance was light and the EPS midpoint was below consensus expectations, the analyst noted. Despite the mixed quarter, shares were up about 5%, which the firm thinks is likely due to short covering, the analyst added.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for AOS
