YETI Should I Buy
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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. YETI is technically weak (bearish momentum and trading below key levels) and fundamentals are showing margin/EPS pressure, while hedge funds have been heavy sellers. Options positioning is bullish/constructive, and Wall Street targets have been raised into 2026, but without a proprietary buy signal and with downside momentum still active, the risk of near-term further downside outweighs the immediate upside.
Trend/momentum is currently bearish. The MACD histogram is negative (-0.628) and expanding lower, which typically signals accelerating downside momentum. RSI(6) at ~25 is oversold (despite the provided note calling it “neutral”), which can support a short-term bounce, but oversold readings can persist in downtrends. Price (44.95) is below S1 (45.45) and well below the pivot (47.93), making prior support a likely overhead resistance zone. Key levels: immediate support at S2 ~43.92; a break below increases downside risk. For bullish reversal odds, reclaiming ~45.45 first and then holding above ~47.93 (pivot) would improve the setup; resistance after that sits around ~50.40 (R1).
Street narrative improving into 2026: KeyBanc upgrade to Overweight with $57 PT and multiple price target raises suggest growing confidence in a demand stabilization story.
Operational/corporate actions: management plans to reduce reliance on Chinese manufacturing (tariff mitigation over time) and increased the stock buyback program (supportive for shares).
Category drivers cited by analysts: drinkware stabilization, innovation pipeline, bags scaling momentum, cooler expansion, and international growth.
Event catalyst: next earnings (QDEC
on 2026-02-16 pre-market could reset the narrative if margins stabilize and guidance improves.
Technical pressure: bearish MACD and price below key levels (S1/pivot) implies sellers still control the tape.
Profitability erosion in the latest reported quarter: gross margin down and EPS/net income down sharply YoY.
Tariffs/product mix headwinds: Q3 margin decline was attributed to tariffs and mix; near-term impact can persist even if mitigation is planned.
Positioning/flow risk: Hedge funds are reported as selling aggressively (selling amount up ~1019% over last quarter), which can cap rallies.
Competitive/promotional environment: analysts flag elevated promotionality in drinkware, which can pressure pricing and margins.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew modestly to $487.8M (+1.95% YoY), but profitability deteriorated: Net Income $39.4M (-30% YoY) and EPS $0.48 (-27.3% YoY). Gross margin fell to 55.87% (-3.76% YoY). Net: top-line is stable-to-slightly growing, but the quality of earnings/margins weakened, which is a key near-term overhang until the company proves margin recovery.
Recent trend is improving but still mixed: multiple firms raised price targets (Goldman to $45 Neutral; Morgan Stanley to $48 Equal Weight; Stifel to $43 Hold; Canaccord to $40 Hold), and KeyBanc upgraded to Overweight with a $57 target (most bullish in the list). Baird remains Outperform with a $47 target. Wall Street pros: stabilization thesis (drinkware), international growth, product innovation, bags/coolers expansion, and potential easing of tariff headwinds plus buybacks. Cons: margin pressure from tariffs/mix, brand/appeal questions with younger consumers (per Canaccord survey work), and competitive promotional intensity. Overall: sentiment is trending better via higher targets, but consensus quality is not uniformly bullish (many Holds/Neutrals), and Goldman’s $45 PT sits near the current price—limiting immediate upside from that view.
