Should I Buy XPOF? XPOF 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

8.550

1 Day change

3.64%

52 Week Range

18.870

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader. Despite a small recent bounce, XPOF is still in a broader bearish trend (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5) with weak fundamentals (Q3’25 revenue down YoY and deeper losses) and a clear pattern of analyst price-target cuts tied to operational headwinds (studio closures). Options positioning is extremely call-skewed, but the absolute volume is tiny and IV is elevated, which makes the bullish read less reliable. I’d wait for a technical reclaim above ~$8.22 (R1) or a fresh proprietary buy signal before treating this as a buy.

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: Bearish moving-average stack (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) signals the primary trend remains down. Price closed at 7.81, below the pivot (7.932), which keeps near-term control with sellers. Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.066) but contracting, suggesting downside momentum is easing (not a confirmed reversal). RSI(6) ~51.6 is neutral—no strong edge. Levels: Immediate support S1 ~7.646 then S2 ~7.469. Resistance is pivot ~7.932, then R1 ~8.218 (key reclaim level), R2 ~8.395. Pattern-based odds: Similar-pattern model suggests modest upside probabilities (next day +0.81%, next week +1.7%, next month +8.53%), but this is fighting the bearish MA regime.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Extremely call-heavy (OI P/C 0.12; Volume P/C 0.02) implies bullish/speculative positioning. Quality of signal: Today’s total options volume is very low (121 contracts: calls 119 vs puts 2), so the put/call readings can be noisy. Volatility: 30D IV ~77.7 vs historical vol ~37.5 indicates options are pricing large moves; IV percentile ~50 is mid-range, but absolute IV is high—premiums are expensive. Net read: bullish tilt, but not strong enough by itself to override the bearish chart and weakening fundamentals.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Hedge funds are net buying (reported buying amount +342.65% QoQ), which can provide support.
Gross margin improved materially in Q3’25 (73.39%, +9.15% YoY), showing better unit economics.
One major bull on the Street (Guggenheim) maintains a Buy and views shares as undervalued, highlighting Club Pilates strength.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

No positive news flow in the last week; no obvious near-term catalyst from the provided feed.
Operational headwinds cited by analysts (elevated studio closures risk; refinement mode) are driving estimate cuts.
Primary technical trend remains bearish (downtrend MA structure); price is below pivot and needs to reclaim ~$8.22 to improve the setup.
Financial performance deteriorated YoY in Q3’25 (revenue down, losses deeper), limiting appetite for chasing bounces.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue was 78.824M (-2.12% YoY). Net income was -6.225M (down -33.19% YoY, i.e., larger loss). EPS was -0.18 (down -37.93% YoY). The notable bright spot is gross margin at 73.39% (+9.15% YoY), but profitability and top-line growth are currently trending the wrong way.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Mostly price-target cuts and cautious stances.

Stifel (2025-11-21): PT cut to $8 from $10, Hold; cites ongoing operational headwinds and higher assumed studio closures; FY26 EBITDA estimate reduced.
Guggenheim (2025-11-10): PT cut to $12 from $13, keeps Buy; sees undervaluation and strong Club Pilates contribution.
Baird (2025-11-07): PT cut to $8 from $9, Neutral.
B. Riley (2025-11-07): PT cut to $8 from $9, Neutral. Wall Street pros/cons view: Bulls see undervaluation and brand strength (especially Club Pilates). Bears focus on execution challenges, studio closures, and reduced forward EBITDA expectations—overall tone is cautious and de-risking via lower targets.

7 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast XPOF stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for XPOF is 9.57 USD with a low forecast of 8 USD and a high forecast of 13 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

5 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 8.250

Low

Averages

9.57

High

Current: 8.250

Low

Averages

9.57

High

Stifel

Chris O'Cull

Hold

downgrade

$10 -> $8

AI Analysis

2025-11-21

Reason

Stifel

Chris O'Cull

Price Target

$10 -> $8

AI Analysis

2025-11-21

downgrade

Hold

Reason

Stifel analyst Chris O'Cull lowered the firm's price target on Xponential Fitness to $8 from $10 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm, which is revising estimates to account for continued operational headwinds following the company's latest 10-Q filing, notes that its FY26 projection now assumes an elevated rate of studio closures and that it reduced its FY26 EBITDA estimate to about $110M.

Guggenheim

Buy

downgrade

$13 -> $12

2025-11-10

Reason

Guggenheim

Price Target

$13 -> $12

2025-11-10

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Guggenheim lowered the firm's price target on Xponential Fitness to $12 from $13 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The business "remains in refinement mode," but the firm sees shares as undervalued, especially given Club Pilates' "increasingly dominant contribution," the analyst tells investors.

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XPOF Should I Buy

XPOF Should I Buy

Should You Buy Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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