XPEV Should I Buy
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Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader. XPEV is in a clear short-term downtrend (bearish moving averages + expanding negative MACD) and price is trading below the key S1 support area, which often allows further downside before a durable bounce. While RSI is deeply oversold (could spark a snapback), there is no Intellectia buy signal today to justify forcing an entry immediately. Best call: hold/avoid new buys until it reclaims ~$18.18–$19.32 with improving momentum.
Trend/momentum is bearish: SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5 confirms a downtrend and the MACD histogram (-0.235) is below zero and negatively expanding (selling pressure strengthening). RSI_6 at ~19.8 is extremely oversold, so a short-term rebound is possible, but oversold can stay oversold in a downtrend. Key levels: Pivot ~19.324 (first meaningful reclaim level); Support S1 ~18.183 (now broken/being tested from below) and S2 ~17.479 (next downside level). Resistance levels: R1 ~20.464, R2 ~21.168. Pattern-based odds provided are bearish: ~50% chance of -5.73% next week and -8.51% next month.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Institutional confidence headline: Yong Rong Asset Management acquired 1.588M shares ($32.2M) and allocated ~9.76% of its assets to XPeng (supports sentiment). Wall Street tone has been improving with multiple upgrades/target hikes, and product/AI narratives (Mona sub-brand, VLA/Physical AI, robotaxi/robots TAM) remain supportive longer-term.
Price action/technicals are decisively bearish right now (downtrend + broken support). Guidance risk persists (noted by analysts as weak near-term). Competitive China EV landscape and ongoing profitability challenges can keep pressure on the stock. Probability model provided also leans to further downside over the next week/month.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue surged to ~2.85B (+101.9% YoY), showing strong top-line acceleration. Gross margin improved to ~20.14% (+32.0% YoY), a clear quality-of-growth positive. However, profitability is still negative: net income ~-53.2M (worse YoY per provided figure) and EPS -0.03 (also worse YoY per provided figure), meaning the company has not yet translated growth into consistent bottom-line improvement.
Recent trend is clearly more bullish: multiple upgrades and price target increases (Freedom Capital to Buy PT $25; Daiwa to Buy PT $29; BofA repeated Buy with PT up to $28; JPMorgan reiterated Overweight and sharply raised PT to $50). Wall Street pros: strong innovation/product cadence (Mona, VLA/Physical AI), potential new TAM (robotaxis/robots), improving margins and pricing power narratives. Cons: near-term outlook/guidance concerns and the fact that profitability remains a work-in-progress. Politicians/congress: no recent congress trading data available; hedge/insider activity listed as neutral.
