Should I Buy XOMA? XOMA 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Xoma Royalty Corp (XOMA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

24.860

1 Day change

-0.24%

52 Week Range

39.920

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

Should I buy Analysis is updated weekly. For real time "Should I Buy" analysis, please sign up to get free answers.

Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. Despite a strong single analyst initiation (Buy, $76 PT), the chart is still in a bearish structure (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5) with weakening momentum, and the short-term probabilistic trend model also leans negative over the next day/week/month. I would not chase here near the pivot; as of now it’s a “hold/avoid new buys” until price strength improves (e.g., a decisive reclaim above ~26.54 with follow-through).

Technical Analysis

Price: 25.66 (+2.76% vs prior close 24.97) while the broader market was down ~0.3%.

Trend / structure:

Moving averages: Bearish alignment (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) suggests the intermediate/long trend is still down.
MACD: Histogram -0.14 and negatively contracting → bearish momentum is still present, though the contraction hints selling pressure may be easing rather than reversing.
RSI(6): 44.13 (neutral-to-soft) → not oversold; no strong mean-reversion buy signal.

Levels:

Pivot: 26.539 (key near-term “line in the sand”). Price is below it, which keeps the near-term bias cautious.
Support: S1 24.506, then S2 23.251.
Resistance: R1 28.571, R2 29.826.

Quant/Pattern tilt:

Similar-candlestick model: 60% chance of -0.86% (next day), -2.79% (next week), -3.38% (next month) → near-term odds favor drift lower.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment/positioning from options (limited reliability due to tiny volume):

Open Interest: Calls 71 vs Puts 33 → Put/Call OI ratio 0.46 (constructive/bullish skew in positioning).
Volume: essentially none (total volume ~1 contract; put-call volume ratio 0.0) → today’s flow is too thin to read real sentiment.
Implied Vol (30d): ~107.75 vs Historical Vol ~43.69 → options are pricing large moves.
IV percentile ~10.4 → IV is relatively low versus its own recent distribution, but still high in absolute terms; could reflect a name that is often volatile.

Bottom line: OI skew is mildly bullish, but the near-zero volume means options are not giving a strong actionable “buy now” signal.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Analyst catalyst: Lucid Capital initiated coverage with a Buy and a $76 price target, highlighting a diversified royalty portfolio and potential to collect >$1B in milestones/royalties over ~15 years.
- Revenue growth: 2025/Q3 revenue rose ~29.93% YoY to 9.351M (top-line momentum).
- Earnings event upcoming: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-11 (pre-market) can act as a volatility catalyst if results/royalty updates surprise positively.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Technical backdrop remains bearish (MA stack bearish; price below pivot 26.539; MACD still negative).
- Short-term statistical outlook is negative (model projects modest downside over 1D/1W/1M with 60% probability).
- Profitability volatility: 2025/Q3 net income and EPS declined sharply YoY (net income -148.26% YoY; EPS -144.03% YoY), raising questions about earnings quality/one-offs.
- No supportive near-term news flow in the past week; momentum lacks an obvious fresh narrative catalyst.
- Institutional/insider activity: Hedge funds neutral (no significant last-quarter trend) and insiders neutral (no significant last-month trend).

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3

Revenue: 9.351M, +29.93% YoY (clear top-line growth).
Net income: 8.981M, -148.26% YoY (large deterioration vs prior year period).
EPS: 0.70, -144.03% YoY (mirrors net income decline).
Gross margin: 100% (consistent with a royalty-style model; the key issue is variability in bottom-line vs prior year).

Takeaway: Strong revenue growth, but earnings are highly volatile year-over-year—this reduces confidence in “buy now” timing when the chart is still bearish and the next earnings event is approaching (2026-02-11).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: New coverage initiation on 2025-12-09 by Lucid Capital with a Buy rating and a $76 price target.

Wall Street pros view (based on provided data): Pros:

Royalty portfolio diversification may reduce single-asset risk while keeping upside exposure.
Long-duration milestone/royalty potential cited (>$1B over 15 years) supports a long-term bull thesis. Cons:
The current tape/technical setup does not confirm that the market is repricing toward that long-term value yet.
Recent YoY profitability swings make near-term fundamentals harder to underwrite for an immediate entry.

Overall: Analyst view is strongly bullish on long-term value creation, but the near-term market/technical evidence does not support an impatient “buy right now” entry.

5 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast XOMA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for XOMA is 71 USD with a low forecast of 50 USD and a high forecast of 97 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 24.920

Low

Averages

High

Current: 24.920

Low

Averages

High

Lucid Capital

NULL -> Buy

initiated

$76

AI Analysis

2025-12-09

Reason

Lucid Capital

Price Target

$76

AI Analysis

2025-12-09

initiated

NULL -> Buy

Reason

Lucid Capital initiated coverage of Xoma with a Buy rating and $76 price target. The company has assembled a royalty portfolio from six commercial and nine Phase 3- stage small molecule and biological assets, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Xoma expects to collect over $1B in milestones and royalties over the next 15 years. Lucid believes that by building a diversified portfolio, the company mitigates single-asset risk while retaining exposure to substantial long-term value creation.

Benchmark

Robert Wasserman

Strong Buy

Initiates

$35

2025-04-17

Reason

Benchmark

Robert Wasserman

Price Target

$35

2025-04-17

Initiates

Strong Buy

Reason

Benchmark analyst Robert Wasserman initiated coverage of Xoma with a Buy rating and $35 price target. Xoma has expanded its royalty aggregate business through acquisitions and internal growth over the past several years, notes the analyst, who expects the R&D pipeline and recently completed commercial asset acquisitions to continue to drive double digit revenue growth over the next several years.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for XOMA

Unlock Now

XOMA Should I Buy

XOMA Should I Buy

Should You Buy Xoma Royalty Corp (XOMA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch