XEL Should I Buy
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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. While the primary trend is bullish (price holding above key moving averages) and options positioning is constructive, momentum is cooling, hedge funds have been heavy sellers, EPS/net income recently declined YoY, and there’s a single recent Congress sale. With earnings (2026-02-05 pre-market) approaching and short-term pattern stats skewing to a weak next week, the risk/reward is not compelling enough to chase at ~$75.9 without a fresher catalyst or pullback.
Trend is still bullish but near-term momentum is moderating. Moving averages are aligned bullishly (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting an established uptrend. RSI(6) at ~57 is neutral-to-slightly bullish (not overbought), so there’s no exhaustion signal. MACD histogram is positive (0.192) but “positively contracting,” implying upside momentum is fading and the stock may consolidate or dip before the next leg higher. Key levels: Pivot ~75.78 (price is barely above, so support is close). Immediate resistance is R1 ~76.81 then R2 ~77.45; supports S1 ~74.75 then S2 ~74.11. Near-term pattern-based stats point to ~-3.4% over the next week despite a favorable 1-month bias (+5.56%), which argues against buying aggressively today.
on 2026-02-05 pre-market (EPS est. ~0.
could reset expectations if results/guidance are strong. Analyst targets remain well above the current price in many cases (notably RBC $95 Outperform; Mizuho $86 Outperform; Citi $92 Buy), implying perceived upside. Sector narrative catalysts cited by analysts include long-term rate base growth/capital plan updates and potential growth upside tied to data centers; Barclays previously noted wildfire risk subsiding.
Flow/sentiment negatives: Hedge funds are selling aggressively (selling amount up 1252.85% over the last quarter). Congress trading shows 1 trade in the last 90 days and it was a sale (no purchases), which is a mild negative signal. Fundamentals: 2025/Q3 showed revenue growth but materially weaker profitability (net income and EPS down YoY). Near-term technical momentum is cooling (MACD histogram contracting) and pattern stats suggest a softer next week (-3.4%). No supportive news catalysts in the most recent week.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to $3.915B (+7.44% YoY), indicating continued top-line growth. However, profitability weakened: net income fell to $524M (-23.17% YoY) and EPS fell to $0.88 (-27.27% YoY). Gross margin improved to ~51.11 (+1.39% YoY), but the EPS/net income decline suggests higher costs, financing impacts, or other below-the-line pressure that the market may keep focusing on into the next earnings print.
Recent analyst trend is mixed but generally constructive on upside: several price-target trims/adjustments in December/January alongside a few raises. Key changes: RBC cut PT to $95 (Outperform) from $97; Morgan Stanley raised to $84 (Equal Weight) from $79 after previously lowering to $79 from $84; Mizuho raised to $86 (Outperform) from $81; UBS lowered to $81 (Neutral) from $86; JPM lowered to $87 (Overweight) from $90; KeyBanc slightly lowered to $84 (Overweight). Wall Street pros: many see XEL as a quality utility compounder with long-term rate base/renewables execution and potential premium valuation. Cons: capital deployment/regulatory complexity and the recent earnings power softness (YoY EPS decline) keep some firms at Neutral/Equal Weight and drive model tweaks.
