WY Should I Buy
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WY is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The stock is sitting just above near-term support, but momentum is weakening after a Q4 miss/adjusted loss and the near-term pattern odds favor additional downside over the next week. I’d hold rather than buy at this level.
Price 25.71 is below the pivot (26.255) and is drifting toward key support at 25.129 (then 24.433). Momentum is bearish: MACD histogram is negative (-0.148) and expanding lower, suggesting downside pressure is building. RSI(6) at ~35.7 is weak (near oversold territory), which can support a short-term bounce, but it’s not a clean reversal signal. Trend structure is somewhat constructive longer-term (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), yet the immediate setup is “bull trend, bearish momentum,” which often leads to more chop or a support test before a sustainable move higher. Near-term resistances: 26.255 then 27.382.
Hedge funds have been accumulating aggressively (buying amount up ~384.6% QoQ), a supportive flow signal. Several firms remain constructive with Buy/Outperform-style views and medium-term strategy optimism after the Investor Day (e.g., CIBC Outperform with higher long-term FCF assumptions; DA Davidson reiterating Buy). Technically, RSI is weak and price is near support, so a reflex bounce is possible if support holds.
Event-driven sentiment is currently negative: Q4 2025 results included an unexpected adjusted net loss (-$0.09 EPS) and revenue decline, which drove post-earnings weakness. Financial trends are deteriorating YoY (notably gross margin compression), increasing risk of further estimate cuts. The statistical pattern-based outlook provided is bearish near-term (higher probability of declines over the next day/week). No supportive insider buying trend is present (insiders neutral).
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Revenue fell to $1.541B (-9.78% YoY), net income $74M (-8.64% YoY), EPS $0.10 (-9.09% YoY). The biggest concern is profitability: gross margin dropped to 10.45% (down -41.29% YoY), signaling meaningful margin compression even if the business remains profitable on a GAAP basis. This weak margin trend makes the stock harder to buy aggressively immediately after earnings.
Recent Wall Street tone is mixed-to-slightly constructive but not uniform. There was a notable downgrade (BofA to Neutral from Buy on 2025-11-17) and multiple price-target trims after Q3 (JPM, Citi, RBC, DA Davidson in early Nov), reflecting pressure in wood products/logs/lumber pricing. More recently (Dec–Jan), some targets were raised and bullish theses reiterated after the Investor Day (CIBC raised PT to $28 with Outperform; Truist raised PT to $28 but kept Hold; DA Davidson kept Buy with $31). Pros: strategy/2030 targets, lowest-cost positioning, potential uplift from timberlands/land solutions. Cons: near-term demand/pricing pressure and margin compression evidenced in the latest results.
