Should I Buy WOLF? WOLF 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Wolfspeed Inc (WOLF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

15.740

1 Day change

1.35%

52 Week Range

918.330

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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Not a good buy right now. WOLF is in a sharp bearish downtrend (down ~9.6% on the day to ~$15.7), trading below key moving averages with a negatively expanding MACD—momentum is still deteriorating even though RSI is deeply oversold (18.8). With earnings on 2026-02-04 after hours and heavy recent insider selling, an impatient buyer is more likely to get trapped in continued downside/volatility than catch a clean reversal. If you already own it, this setup argues for holding off on adding (and many traders would trim into any dead-cat bounce rather than buy here).

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Technical Analysis

Trend and momentum are bearish showing no confirmed reversal:

Price action: Closed at 15.7 vs 17.33 prior close (-9.64%), now below S1 (16.149) and approaching S2 (14.622). This places the stock in a breakdown zone where bounces can occur, but failures are common.
Moving averages: Bearish stack (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) confirms an established downtrend.
MACD: Histogram -0.165 and negatively expanding = downside momentum is strengthening, not fading.
RSI(6): 18.812 = deeply oversold; this increases odds of a short-term bounce, but oversold alone is not a buy signal without stabilization/turn.
Nearby levels: Support at ~14.62 (S2). If that fails, downside can accelerate. A rebound would first need to reclaim ~16.15 (S1) and then the pivot near 18.62 to shift the structure.
Pattern-based odds provided: modest upside bias next day/week (40% chance to +1.24% next day, +3.16% next week) but essentially flat over a month (-0.17%), which aligns with “bounce risk” rather than “trend change.”

Options Data

Neutral

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options positioning is mixed:

Open Interest Put/Call = 1.03: slightly put-heavy, suggesting cautious/defensive positioning or hedging demand.
Volume Put/Call = 0.13: call volume dominated today, consistent with speculative dip-buying or short-term bounce bets.
Volatility: 30D IV ~100.7% vs HV ~116.4% (still extremely high absolute vol). IV percentile 8 / IV rank ~10 indicates IV is low relative to its own recent history—options are not “peak expensive” versus WOLF’s past, but the underlying remains very volatile.
Volume vs 30D average ~41% suggests today’s options activity is not especially high overall; sentiment signals are less decisive.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Renesas equity recovery plan completed after CFIUS approval (2026-01-30): could improve capital efficiency/structure and reduce overhang concerns.
Potential oversold technical condition (RSI ~18.8): increases probability of a reflex rally if selling pressure eases.
Hedge funds net buying trend: reported buying amount up ~193% over the last quarter, which can be supportive if it continues.
Earnings event (2026-02-04): could act as a catalyst if results/guidance surprise positively.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Strong bearish trend: breakdown below S1 (~16.
with MACD momentum worsening suggests further downside risk remains immediate.
Heavy insider selling: selling amount up ~9071% over the last month is a meaningful negative signal versus near-term confidence.
Earnings risk on 2026-02-04: for an impatient entry, buying just before earnings adds event-driven gap risk in an already high-volatility name.
Fundamentals remain weak (negative gross margin and large losses), limiting support from “value” buyers.
Analyst target cut: Susquehanna lowered PT to $20 from $30 and stayed Neutral—signals tempered Street expectations.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2026/Q1.

Revenue: $196.8M, +1.08% YoY (low growth).
Profitability: still deeply negative. Net income was -$643.6M and EPS -4.12 (loss-making). Gross margin was -15.24% (negative margin is a major red flag; even if YoY metrics improved mechanically, the business is not yet demonstrating sustainable profitability). Overall: modest top-line growth but severe losses and negative margins dominate the financial picture.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent Street trend: incremental negative.

2026-01-22 Susquehanna: Price target cut to $20 from $30; rating kept at Neutral. Wall Street pros vs cons view (based on provided notes):
Pros: potential semiconductor upcycle/AI infrastructure broadening; industrial improving; company restructuring/capital efficiency steps.
Cons: auto end-market remains challenged; ongoing earnings/profitability uncertainty; target cut suggests reduced confidence in near-term upside magnitude. Influential/pleading activity: No recent congress trading data in the last 90 days. Insider activity is notably negative (heavy selling), while hedge funds have been net buyers.

1 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast WOLF stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for WOLF is 30 USD with a low forecast of 30 USD and a high forecast of 30 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 15.530

Low

Averages

High

Current: 15.530

Low

Averages

High

Piper Sandler

Harsh Kumar

maintain

$6 -> $20

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

Reason

Piper Sandler

Harsh Kumar

Price Target

$6 -> $20

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

maintain

Reason

Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar raised the firm's price target on Wolfspeed to $20 from $6 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says the company emerged with fresh start accounting with results for the December 2025 quarter. On average, Wolfspeed is getting hurt through the process of customer attrition as it went through its restructuring, and also lackluster demand in its key end market of EVs. Going forward, however, under the new management, the company is focused on new areas of growth such as DC power and energy for solar wind applications, Piper adds.

Susquehanna

Neutral

downgrade

$30 -> $20

2026-01-22

Reason

Susquehanna

Price Target

$30 -> $20

2026-01-22

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

Susquehanna lowered the firm's price target on Wolfspeed to $20 from $30 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated targets in the semiconductor group as a part of an earnings preview. Susquehanna generally expects in-line results to modest upside in Q4, amid a "steadying upcycle" and a broadening of the artificial intelligence infrastructure supply chain. While the industrial end market is improving, auto remains somewhat challenged, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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WOLF Should I Buy

WOLF Should I Buy

Should You Buy Wolfspeed Inc (WOLF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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