WAL Should I Buy
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WAL is not a good buy right now. Despite a fundamentally strong Q4 print and generally supportive analyst price targets, near-term technical/derivative signals skew cautious (bearish MACD momentum, put-leaning options flow, and pattern-based downside odds). For an impatient buyer, the risk/reward favors waiting for either a pullback toward support (86.4) or a reclaim of resistance (91.7) with improving momentum rather than buying at ~88.8.
Trend: Medium/long-term trend is still constructive (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), but short-term momentum is weakening. MACD histogram is negative (-0.0957) and expanding lower, signaling fading upside momentum. RSI(6) ~51.6 is neutral (no oversold edge). Price is sitting near the pivot (89.01); failure to hold this area raises the odds of a move toward S1 ~86.36 (then S2 ~84.73). Upside levels to clear: R1 ~91.66 and R2 ~93.29. The provided pattern study also points to near-term downside bias (higher probability of -1.5% next day and ~-3% next week).
Strong Q4 2025 results: EPS 2.59 (+33% YoY), revenue up ~21% YoY, net income up ~32% YoY; notable Q4 net income jump (76% YoY) in the news summary. Loan growth and controlled expenses (noninterest expense growth limited to ~4%) with noninterest income up ~25%. Management tone/bullish momentum for 2026 cited by multiple analysts; broader mid-cap bank tailwinds (steepening curve/loan growth improving) highlighted by UBS/Truist/TD.
Near-term trading setup: bearish MACD momentum and put-tilted options volume. Quant/pattern projection provided suggests elevated probability of declines over the next day/week/month, which is unfavorable for an immediate entry.
Latest quarter (2025/Q4): Revenue $848.2M (+21.0% YoY), Net Income $282.9M (+32.4% YoY), EPS $2.59 (+32.8% YoY). News details reinforce strong operating momentum (Q4 revenue cited around ~$980.9M in the summary feed, plus strong noninterest income growth and disciplined expenses). Balance sheet/credit tone appears stable in the summary (criticized assets slightly down; expectation for nonaccrual improvement by end of Q2 2026), but funding/deposit-cost trajectory remains the key swing factor.
Recent trend: Price targets have generally moved higher (Citi to $107, BofA to $100, JPM to $105 despite downgrade, KBW to $101, UBS to $107, Barclays to $115, Truist to $98), indicating improved confidence after earnings and/or better 2026 outlook. However, ratings are mixed: multiple Buys/Outperforms remain (BofA, KBW, UBS, Truist, TD, Barclays), while Citi is Neutral and JPM downgraded to Neutral. Wall Street pros: strong earnings momentum, potential EPS growth in 2026, improving loan growth and cost discipline. Cons: sensitivity to rate path and deposit costs; limited relief if cuts are fewer and funding remains sticky—keeping upside more capped near term.
