WAB Should I Buy
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Not a good buy right now. WAB’s longer-term trend remains bullish (stacked moving averages), but near-term momentum is weakening (MACD histogram negative and expanding) and price is sitting just under the pivot (230.6) after a down day. With no Intellectia AI Stock Picker or SwingMax entry signal and a bearish short-horizon pattern forecast (higher odds of further declines over 1D/1W/1M), the risk/reward for an impatient buyer is unfavorable at the current ~$229.6. A better immediate entry would be closer to support (226.3, then ~223.7) rather than chasing here ahead of earnings (2026-02-11).
Trend: Medium/long-term bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), but short-term momentum is slipping. Momentum: MACD histogram -0.253 and negatively expanding = bearish momentum building. RSI(6) 51.7 = neutral (no oversold cushion). Levels: Pivot 230.585; price (229.59) is slightly below pivot (weak). Resistance: 234.844 then 237.476. Support: 226.326 then 223.694. Probabilistic pattern read suggests downside bias: ~80% chance of -2.43% next day, -5.97% next week, -8.29% next month.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Analyst momentum is clearly positive: multiple Buy/Outperform reiterations/upgrades and several price target raises in Jan 2026 (Susquehanna to $280; Citi to $258; BofA to $263), with commentary around recurring sales/earnings compounding and fleet refresh demand.
Fundamentals trend up in the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3): revenue +8.37% YoY, net income +9.54%, EPS +11.04%, gross margin up to 32.12% (+5.87% YoY).
Positioning tailwind: hedge funds reported as buying (buying amount +170.31% QoQ).
Near-term technical deterioration: bearish MACD expansion and price slipping below the pivot; short-horizon pattern stats point to higher downside probability over 1D/1W/1M.
Event risk: earnings on 2026-02-11 (pre-market) can gap the stock either direction; current IV premium reflects that.
Industry/macro uncertainty noted by analysts (e.g., tariff uncertainty; North America railcar backdrop described as “soft but stable”).
News item provided (Tetra Tech contract with Westinghouse Electric) appears not directly related to Wabtec (WAB), so it offers little incremental support.
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3. Growth was solid and broad-based: Revenue $2.886B (+8.37% YoY), Net Income $310M (+9.54% YoY), EPS $1.81 (+11.04% YoY), and Gross Margin 32.12% (up +5.87% YoY). This supports the ‘earnings compounder’ narrative and indicates margin expansion alongside top-line growth.
Recent trend is strongly constructive: multiple upward price-target revisions and maintained Buy/Positive ratings through Jan 2026, plus Wolfe upgrade to Outperform. Highlights: Susquehanna PT raised to $280 (Positive) citing international momentum and locomotive demand better than feared; BofA raised to $263 (Buy) citing fleet refresh orders and recurring sales; Citi raised to $258 (Buy) expecting organic growth above consensus. Wall Street pros: aging locomotive fleet refresh cycle, recurring revenue potential, margin expansion, and visible order activity. Cons: mixed end-market outlook and rising customer concentration (Wells Fargo initiated Equal Weight with $221), plus lingering tariff uncertainty.
