VRTS Should I Buy
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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The trend setup is bearish (negative/expanding MACD, bearish MA stack) and the Street tone has skewed negative (two Underweights with lowered targets). Even though the stock is near support and somewhat washed down, there is no Intellectia buy signal to justify rushing in ahead of earnings. Action: HOLD / do not buy at the current level.
Trend & momentum: Bearish. The moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating a sustained downtrend. MACD histogram is -0.683 and expanding negatively, confirming downside momentum is still building rather than stabilizing.
RSI: RSI(6) at 32.44 is weak and approaching oversold conditions, suggesting a potential near-term bounce is possible, but it is not a confirmed reversal signal on its own.
Key levels: Pivot 166.16 is overhead (current 163.25 is below pivot = bearish). Support is nearby at S1 162.01, then S2 159.45; a break below ~162 increases risk of a quick move toward ~159. Resistance levels are 170.31 (R1) and 172.87 (R2).
Pattern-based forward look: Similar candlestick-pattern history implies ~50% chance of -1.35% next day, +3.89% next week, +1.81% next month—suggesting a possible short-term bounce, but not a strong edge given current momentum.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Growth trends were negative: Revenue $203.729M (-10.03% YoY), Net Income $31.926M (-22.09% YoY), EPS $4.65 (-18.56% YoY). This shows weakening profitability and earnings power year-over-year heading into the upcoming Q4 print (street EPS est. 6.52).
Recent rating/target trend: Net negative. Barclays (2025-12-12) kept Underweight and cut PT to $158 from $175; Morgan Stanley (2025-12-17) kept Underweight and cut PT to $168 from $173 citing softer-than-expected flows and lower EPS estimates; Piper Sandler (2025-12-23) kept Overweight but trimmed PT to $218 from $225.
Wall Street pros vs cons: Pros—Piper’s Overweight suggests upside if fundamentals/credit fears prove overstated and deal activity improves. Cons—Two major firms remain Underweight with lowered targets, emphasizing flow softness and a more challenged outlook for traditional asset managers; this is a headwind for near-term multiple expansion and sentiment.
