Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
The earnings call reflects mixed signals: despite some negative trends like decreased AUM and net outflows, there are positive aspects such as strong ETF growth, share repurchase, and strategic diversification plans. The Q&A revealed cautious optimism about future growth opportunities, although management was vague about M&A specifics. Considering the market cap of $1.57 billion, the stock is likely to experience limited movement, resulting in a neutral sentiment.
Assets Under Management (AUM) $159 billion at 12/31, down from $169 billion year-over-year due to net outflows and the impact of market performance.
Total Sales $5.3 billion compared with $6.3 billion in the third quarter, reflecting a decrease due to a $0.4 billion CLO issuance in the prior quarter.
Net Outflows $8.1 billion, driven primarily by equities, reflecting style headwinds for quality-oriented strategies and seasonal tax loss harvesting.
Fixed Income Net Flows Modestly negative at $0.1 billion for the quarter, with positive net flows in multi-sector and emerging market debt strategies.
Alternative Strategies Net Flows Essentially breakeven for the quarter and positive for the trailing 12 months.
Operating Margin 32.4%, down from 33% last quarter, reflecting lower average AUM partially offset by lower operating expenses.
Earnings Per Share (EPS) $6.50, down from $6.69 in the third quarter, reflecting lower average assets.
ETF AUM $5.2 billion, up $0.5 billion sequentially and up 72% year-over-year due to strong net flows.
Investment Management Fees $168.9 million, down 4% due to lower average AUM and a modestly lower average fee rate.
Employment Expenses $95.8 million, decreased 3% due to lower variable incentive compensation.
Other Operating Expenses $30.2 million, down from $31.1 million due to discrete M&A-related costs in the prior quarter.
Net Income Per Diluted Share $6.50, declined 3% from $6.69 in the prior quarter.
Cash and Equivalents $386 million at December 31, reflecting significant liquidity.
ETF Introductions: Launched three new actively managed ETFs, including a growth opportunities ETF from Silvant and U.S. and international dividend strategies from the Systematic team. Plans for additional active ETF launches over the next two quarters.
Private Market Expansion: Expanded into private markets with the acquisition of a majority interest in Keystone National Group and a minority investment in Crescent Cove.
Market Positioning in Private Credit: Acquired a 56% majority interest in Keystone National Group, specializing in asset-based lending with $2.5 billion in assets. Keystone's strategies are expected to grow across retail and institutional channels.
Venture Growth Market: Completed a 35% minority investment in Crescent Cove, focusing on high-growth middle-market technology companies with over $1 billion in AUM.
AUM Performance: Assets under management (AUM) were $159 billion at year-end, down from $169 billion due to net outflows and market performance.
Net Outflows: Total net outflows were $8.1 billion, primarily driven by equities.
ETF Growth: ETF AUM increased to $5.2 billion, up 72% year-over-year, with strong net flows.
Strategic Investments: Invested in Keystone National and Crescent Cove to diversify offerings and expand into private markets.
Capital Allocation: Repurchased $10 million in shares during the quarter and $60 million for the full year, representing 5% of beginning shares.
Quality-oriented equity strategies underperformance: The market backdrop favored momentum-driven stocks, leading to near-term underperformance of quality-oriented equity strategies, which represent half of the company's AUM. This resulted in increased net outflows and overshadowed other areas of strength.
Net outflows and declining AUM: Total net outflows were $8.1 billion in the quarter, driven primarily by equities, leading to a decline in assets under management from $169 billion to $159 billion. This was exacerbated by market performance and institutional partial redemptions.
Headwinds in U.S. retail funds: U.S. retail funds faced continued headwinds, with known redemptions exceeding known wins, and a large redemption from a client rebalancing to a passive strategy.
Decline in operating margin and earnings: The operating margin declined to 32.4% from 33% in the previous quarter, and earnings per share decreased to $6.50 from $6.69, reflecting lower average AUM and increased expenses.
Style headwinds for equity strategies: The company's equity strategies faced style headwinds, particularly for quality domestic and global large-cap growth strategies, leading to significant institutional redemptions and seasonal tax loss harvesting.
Increased competition and market challenges: The company faces competitive pressures and market challenges, particularly in maintaining positive net flows in a market environment favoring momentum-driven stocks over quality-oriented strategies.
Potential risks with Keystone National acquisition: The acquisition of Keystone National involves a $200 million payment and integration risks, as well as the challenge of expanding its strategies across retail and institutional channels.
ETF Launches: Several additional active ETF launches are expected over the next 2 quarters across managers, including Stone Harbor, Duff & Phelps, and Silvant.
New Offerings: Several new offerings are in process or filing, including interval funds and additional retail separate account strategies.
Private Markets Expansion: The company will acquire a 56% majority interest in Keystone National Group, a boutique private credit manager, and has completed a 35% minority investment in Crescent Cove, a private investment firm. Keystone's strategies are expected to grow across retail and institutional channels, and Crescent Cove has long-term growth potential, including extensions into other products.
Fee Rate Projections: For the first quarter, an average fee rate of 41 to 42 basis points is expected. Beyond the first quarter, the average fee rate is anticipated to be in the range of 43 to 45 basis points.
Employment Expenses: Looking beyond the first quarter, employment expenses as a percentage of revenues are anticipated to be in a range of 50% to 52%.
Other Operating Expenses: Beyond the first quarter, a quarterly range of $31 million to $33 million is considered reasonable.
Noncontrolling Interests: Beyond the first quarter, a reasonable range for noncontrolling interests is expected to be $5 million to $6 million, factoring in Keystone minority ownership.
Effective Tax Rate: Beginning with the second quarter, the effective tax rate is anticipated to be 23% to 24% due to the addition of Keystone.
Net Leverage: Net leverage at March 31 is anticipated to be 1.2x EBITDA after the $200 million payment for Keystone National.
Share Buybacks: During the quarter, the company repurchased approximately 60,000 shares for $10 million. For the full year, $60 million was used to repurchase over 347,000 shares, representing 5% of beginning shares.
The earnings call reflects mixed signals: despite some negative trends like decreased AUM and net outflows, there are positive aspects such as strong ETF growth, share repurchase, and strategic diversification plans. The Q&A revealed cautious optimism about future growth opportunities, although management was vague about M&A specifics. Considering the market cap of $1.57 billion, the stock is likely to experience limited movement, resulting in a neutral sentiment.
Despite some challenges like net outflows and a year-over-year EPS decline, the company shows strong financial performance with increased sales, operating margin, and dividends. Positive signs include growth in ETFs, fixed income, and alternative strategies, along with enhanced financial flexibility from debt refinancing. The Q&A reveals optimism in expanding ETF distribution and active evaluation of growth opportunities. The market cap suggests moderate sensitivity to news, supporting a positive outlook.
The earnings call presents a mixed picture: strong shareholder returns via share repurchases and financial flexibility are positives, but declining investment management fees and lack of clarity in management's responses are concerning. The Q&A section highlights optimism in fixed income and ETFs but reveals uncertainty in private market strategies. Given the company's market cap of $1.57 billion, the stock is likely to have moderate fluctuations, resulting in a neutral prediction of -2% to 2% over the next two weeks.
The earnings call highlighted several challenges, including market volatility, net outflows, and decreased operating margin. Despite a slight improvement in net outflows and EPS growth, the reduction in assets under management and unclear guidance on key issues like the deferred tax asset and soft-closed vehicle impact cast a shadow. The Q&A session revealed management's lack of clarity on important matters, which could unsettle investors. Given the company's small-cap status, these issues are likely to result in a negative stock price reaction within the -2% to -8% range over the next two weeks.
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