VRSK Should I Buy
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VRSK is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The trend setup is bearish (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5 with MACD still below zero), insider selling has surged, and recent analyst actions skew negative (downgrade + target cut). While options open-interest positioning looks bullish, near-term options volume is put-heavy, suggesting cautious sentiment. Net: avoid new entries here; if you already own it, this is a trim/exit rather than a buy-the-dip.
Price/levels: Last close $216.05, sitting below the pivot (218.49) and close to support S1 (214.80); a breakdown risks a move toward S2 (212.52). Upside resistance is 222.19 then 224.47.
Trend/momentum: Moving averages are bearishly stacked (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5), implying a prevailing downtrend/weak intermediate structure. MACD histogram is negative (-0.392) and only modestly contracting, which suggests bearish momentum is easing but not reversed. RSI(6) ~44 is neutral-to-soft, not signaling an oversold bounce.
Pattern/odds (given): Similar-pattern stats indicate a 70% chance of a small positive move (+2.3%) next day and +1.23% next week, but that’s counter to the broader bearish MA structure—so any bounce is more likely a short-lived mean reversion unless price reclaims and holds above the pivot (218.5) and then clears 222+.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Open-interest skew is call-favorable (OI put/call 0.37), suggesting some investors are positioned for upside over a longer horizon.
while keeping Equal Weight.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to $768.3M (+5.93% YoY), net income to $225.5M (+2.45% YoY), EPS to $1.61 (+4.55% YoY), and gross margin improved to 59.42% (+1.28% YoY). Growth is steady but not accelerating sharply, which makes the current bearish technical/insider tape more important for timing a new entry.
Recent trend: ratings/targets moved more cautious. Argus downgraded VRSK to Hold from Buy (after an earnings beat but with a cut to FY25 revenue outlook). Morgan Stanley reduced its price target to $270 from $290 and maintained Equal Weight, citing AI-driven bifurcation among information services names. Wall Street pros: consistent profitability and steady revenue/EPS growth with improving margins. Wall Street cons: tempered outlook/guidance tone implied by the downgrade, and less conviction reflected in target cuts/neutral ratings—suggesting limited near-term upside enthusiasm at current levels. Influential buyers/sellers: No recent congress trading data; hedge funds noted as neutral; insiders are net sellers.
