VRDN Should I Buy
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VRDN is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The broader trend is constructive (bullish moving averages), but momentum is not accelerating (MACD histogram positive but contracting, RSI neutral), the stock sits just above a key pivot (32.82) with nearby resistance (33.95), and there are no fresh news catalysts this week to force an immediate upside move. I would hold off on initiating a new position at current levels rather than chase.
Trend remains bullish on a moving-average basis (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), implying the intermediate/long bias is still up. However, near-term momentum is mixed: MACD histogram is slightly positive (0.0313) but contracting, signaling weakening upside thrust; RSI(6) ~50.9 is neutral, suggesting no edge for immediate follow-through. Key levels: pivot/support ~32.823 (loss of this level increases risk toward S1 ~31.70 and S2 ~31.01). Resistance is close at R1 ~33.946 then R2 ~34.64, so upside may be capped without a catalyst. Pattern-based outlook provided is also mixed (higher chance of a small dip next day and negative month expectation).
Street thesis remains centered on veligrotug/anti-IGF-1R franchise for thyroid eye disease (TED), with multiple firms citing differentiation vs Tepezza and BLA submission/launch potential as key drivers. If regulatory/launch milestones progress smoothly, that can re-rate the stock. Technical backdrop (bullish MA stack) supports upside continuation if a catalyst emerges.
and momentum indicators are not confirming a strong push higher (MACD contracting, RSI neutral). Biotech/regulatory timelines can also introduce gaps; with no fresh headline now, price can drift or retrace toward support (~32.82 / ~31.70).
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to $70.57M (+81,958% YoY), while profitability remained negative: net income -$34.60M (54.88% worse YoY) and EPS -$0.42 (63.48% worse YoY). Gross margin shown at 100%. The key takeaway is that top-line surged but losses widened—growth is not yet translating into improving earnings, so near-term price performance is likely driven more by pipeline/regulatory execution than operating leverage.
Recent analyst trend is clearly positive: multiple Buy/Outperform initiations and price target raises from late 2025 into Jan 2026 (e.g., Evercore PT raised to $44; UBS initiated Buy with $50; William Blair Outperform $47; Truist Buy $41; Goldman raised to $40; RBC raised to $45). Wall Street pros: strong confidence in veligrotug differentiation and approval/launch path, with upside to market share in TED. Cons: thesis is concentrated around a single core asset/launch outcome and the TED market growth has been described as plateaued—execution/regulatory and commercialization risk remain the main bear points. Politicians/congress: no recent congress trading data available; hedge funds/insiders reported neutral with no significant recent trends.
