VNDA Should I Buy
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VNDA is not a good buy right now. Price action is weakening (bearish MACD expansion, below the pivot), and near-term headline risk remains elevated after the FDA rejection of the HETLIOZ jet lag sNDA and the follow-on law firm investigation news. Even though options positioning is very bullish (call-heavy) and analysts largely stay positive on the motion-sickness approval story, the current tape favors caution. For an impatient investor looking to enter immediately, the risk/reward is unattractive until VNDA reclaims ~7.74–8.17 with improving momentum or cleanly stabilizes above ~7.31 support.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Trend/momentum: Short-term bias is down. MACD histogram is negative (-0.0874) and negatively expanding, which typically signals strengthening downside momentum. RSI(6) at ~40.7 is neutral-to-weak (not oversold, so downside can continue without a technical bounce trigger).
Levels: Pivot 7.738 is the key near-term line in the sand; the stock closed at 7.66 (below pivot). Support sits at S1 7.307 (then S2 7.041). Resistance is R1 8.169 (then R2 8.435). A break below ~7.31 increases odds of a push toward ~7.04.
Pattern/stat model: Similar-candlestick backtest suggests only modest upside next day/week (+0.61% / +0.11%), but a negative 1-month drift (-4.69%), consistent with a weak near-term tape.
on 2026-02-12 after hours could reset expectations if management provides strong launch/pricing commentary for the new approval.
has a very negative EPS estimate (Est: -2.18), which raises the risk of volatility around the print.
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to $56.26M (+18.06% YoY), showing top-line growth. Losses improved materially: net income increased to -$22.59M (less negative, +324.23% YoY improvement) and EPS improved to -0.38 (+322.22% YoY improvement). Gross margin remained very high at 91.63% (+0.73% YoY), consistent with a pharma mix.
Takeaway: Operating trend is improving (growth + narrowing losses), but profitability is still negative and the upcoming quarter’s Street expectation implies continued heavy losses/volatility.
Recent trend: Analyst sentiment skewed positive with multiple Buy/Overweight reiterations and price target raises after the motion-sickness approval. H.C. Wainwright raised PT to $22 (from $20) and reiterated Buy; Cantor kept Overweight with $11; B. Riley raised PT to $14 and kept Buy; Jefferies raised PT to $7.50 but stayed Hold.
Wall Street pros: Newly approved product (motion sickness) with potential $100M–$300M opportunity; possible read-through to GLP-1 nausea; turnaround/discount narrative. Wall Street cons: Regulatory overhang from the jet lag rejection; uncertainty on additional FDA requirements/timeline; more conservative firms still only rate Hold near current price, implying limited near-term upside until execution is proven.
Influential/insider/political activity: Hedge funds and insiders are reported neutral (no significant recent trends). No recent Congress trading data available.
