Should I Buy VLY? VLY 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Valley National Bancorp (VLY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

13.710

1 Day change

1.26%

52 Week Range

13.790

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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Buy now. VLY is in a technically bullish uptrend (stacked rising moving averages) and just delivered a strong Q4 2025 print with upbeat 2026 net interest income growth guidance. Wall Street price targets moved higher with a fresh double-upgrade to Strong Buy, and hedge-fund buying is accelerating. With the stock sitting just below near-term resistance (R1 ~12.78, R2 ~13.09), the setup favors upside continuation rather than waiting for a perfect dip.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish. The moving averages are stacked positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), signaling an established uptrend. Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.0397) but contracting, suggesting upside momentum is still present but slowing short-term. RSI: RSI(6) 59.9 (neutral-to-slightly-bullish), not overbought. Levels: Pivot 12.271 is the key near-term line; holding above it keeps the bullish bias intact. Resistance at R1 12.779 then R2 13.093; a push through those levels would confirm continuation. Supports at S1 11.763 and S2 11.449. Pattern-based forward look: Similar-pattern stats suggest limited edge next week (flat) but a favorable 1-month skew (+8.79%).

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Open-interest put/call of 0.2 is strongly call-heavy (bullish positioning). However, the volume put/call of 8.88 is skewed to puts on the day, implying short-term hedging/speculation despite bullish longer-term positioning. Volatility: 30D IV ~41.7 with IV percentile 86.8 (elevated vs its own history), meaning options are pricing in larger moves; that often happens around earnings/guide resets and can coincide with trend continuation or post-event digestion. Liquidity/Activity: Today’s volume (563) is light vs 5–10D averages, so the high put-heavy volume ratio may be noisy; overall read is: longer-term bullish positioning with near-term caution/hedging.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Institutional flow: Hedge funds are buying (very large QoQ increase reported).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

suggests some market participants are hedging near-term despite bullish open interest.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter (2025/Q4): Revenue $528.881M (+13.57% YoY), Net Income $187.969M (+72.95% YoY), EPS $0.33 (+65.00% YoY). This quarter shows accelerating profitability and strong YoY operating improvement, consistent with the narrative of reserve building behind them and improving operating leverage heading into 2026.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Ratings and targets have moved upward materially after the Q4 report.

2026-01-30 Raymond James: double upgrade to Strong Buy, PT $15 (most bullish, citing loan-growth inflection, visible NIM momentum, peaking credit costs, and buyback flexibility).
2026-01-30 Barclays: PT raised to $14, maintained Equal Weight (constructive on trends but more balanced stance).
2026-01-30 Keefe Bruyette: PT raised to $13, maintained Market Perform (cautious/valuation-aware).
2025-12-16 JPMorgan: PT raised to $14.50, maintained Overweight (expects 2026 tailwinds for regionals).
2025-12-15 UBS: initiated Buy, PT $15 (expects improving NIM and profitability driving multiple expansion). Wall Street pros: Turning-point narrative, improving NIM/loan growth, stronger deposits/liquidity, and upside to profitability goals. Wall Street cons: Some firms still stay neutral/market-perform, implying upside exists but may be partly reflected or still dependent on clean execution. Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; insiders reported neutral.

VLY Should I Buy