VIR Should I Buy
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Not a good buy right now. VIR’s trend structure is still constructive (bullish moving-average stack), but the stock just sold off hard and is sitting below near-term resistance (R1 7.76) with no Intellectia buy signals today, heavy hedge-fund selling, and extremely elevated implied volatility implying event risk. For an impatient buyer who wants immediate edge, the setup is not strong enough to justify buying at ~7.21; prefer to stay out unless it reclaims ~7.76 with momentum or flushes closer to support (6.16–6.96).
Price action / trend: VIR closed at 7.21 (down -4.37% regular session; additional weakness post-market). Despite the drop, moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), which suggests the broader bias is still upward/repairing. Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.124) but contracting—bullish momentum is fading rather than accelerating. RSI(6) ~58.9 is neutral-to-slightly-bullish (not overbought), but not a high-conviction momentum signal. Levels: Pivot ~6.958 is the immediate line in the sand; holding above it keeps the constructive bias intact. Near resistance sits at R1 ~7.758 (needs a reclaim for a clean momentum entry). Downside supports: S1 ~6.158 then S2 ~5.663. Pattern stats provided: Similar-pattern analysis implies a 60% chance of modest upside (+2.4% next day; +2.57% next week; +7.85% next month), but that edge is not reinforced by today’s tape (sharp selloff) or proprietary signals.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
on 2026-02-25 after hours could serve as a catalyst if results/updates surprise positively.
Sharp selloff into the close and further post-market weakness suggests near-term distribution and failed momentum.
Hedge funds are selling aggressively (selling amount up 3690.48% last quarter), which is a notable sentiment/flow headwind.
Options IV is extremely elevated (IV percentile 98), implying high uncertainty/event risk and less favorable entry for an impatient buyer.
News items provided appear unrelated to VIR (they reference Oncolytics Biotech and pelareorep), so there is no clear VIR-specific positive headline catalyst in the supplied summary.
Near-term resistance overhead at ~7.76 (R1); failure to reclaim can keep price capped.
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3. Revenue fell to $240K (-89.92% YoY), showing a sharp contraction in top-line. Net income was -$163.141M (loss; -23.66% YoY), and EPS was -1.17 (-25% YoY), indicating losses remain substantial and worsened on a per-share basis. Gross margin is listed at 104.58% (+6.82% YoY), which can occur in biotech due to accounting/one-time items or collaboration revenue mix, but it doesn’t offset the core issue: weak revenue and sizable ongoing losses. Near-term focus: next scheduled earnings is QDEC 2025 on 2026-02-25 (after hours; est EPS -0.42).
Recent Street update: On 2026-01-06, BofA lowered VIR’s price target to $13 from $14 while maintaining a Buy rating. This is a mildly negative revision (trimmed target) but still reflects a bullish directional view. Wall Street pros/cons (from the provided note and current context): Pros: Buy rating maintained; broader biotech backdrop described as improving (data catalysts rewarded, M&A/in-licensing activity, improved access to capital). Cons: Price target reduced; durability of the biotech rebound is cited as a key concern. Combined with hedge-fund selling and weak recent quarterly revenue, conviction for an immediate entry is not high. Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; insiders are described as neutral with no significant recent trend.
