Should I Buy VAC? VAC 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corp (VAC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

55.580

1 Day change

1.42%

52 Week Range

91.180

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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VAC is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The trend is still decisively bearish (moving averages stacked down and MACD negative), fundamentals just weakened (2025/Q3 swung to a small loss), and Wall Street sentiment has deteriorated sharply via multiple downgrades and steep price-target cuts. While the stock is short-term oversold and could bounce, the setup is not a high-confidence “buy now” without a clear reversal signal.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Price action remains in a downtrend: bearish moving-average stack (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) signals persistent selling pressure and failed recovery attempts. MACD histogram at -0.912 and still below zero confirms bearish momentum (even if the negative pressure is contracting). RSI_6 at ~25.9 indicates oversold conditions, which can produce a short reflex bounce, but oversold is not the same as trend reversal.

Key levels: immediate support is S1 54.06 (already being tested/undercut intraday given the close at 53.27), then S2 ~52.33. Resistance/pivot overhead is ~56.87, with R1 ~59.68. For a “buy now” case, you’d want price to reclaim the pivot (56.9) and hold it; currently the chart favors further downside retests toward ~52.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options are mixed-to-cautious near term. Open-interest put/call at 0.53 suggests more call positioning overall (could be bullish longer-dated positioning or covered-call activity), but the volume put/call at 1.18 shows puts were trading heavier than calls recently, implying near-term hedging or bearish sentiment.

Volatility: IV percentile ~~84 is elevated (market is pricing large moves), and 30D IV (~~52.6) is far below the very high historical volatility (~98.9), consistent with a stock that’s been swinging hard. Elevated IV generally signals uncertainty/fear rather than a clean bullish consensus.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

could spark a short-term bounce if support near ~52–54 holds.
on 2026-02-25 after hours; any evidence of stabilized tours/sales execution could re-rate the stock.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

including revenue decline and an earnings swing to a loss.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue declined to $812M (-2.40% YoY). Profitability weakened materially: Net Income fell to about -$2M (-102.38% YoY) and EPS to -0.06 (-102.84% YoY). Gross margin slipped to 69.7% (-0.36% YoY). Overall, growth and earnings momentum are negative, reinforcing the bearish technical picture rather than supporting an “impatient buy now.”

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent analyst trend is decisively negative: multiple downgrades/initiations at Underweight/Sell and large price-target cuts after Q3 and execution issues.

Morgan Stanley (2026-01-16): Downgraded to Underweight; PT cut to $52 from $70; expects downward consensus revisions.
Wells Fargo (2025-11-17): Initiated Underweight; PT $37; cited inconsistent results/industry headwinds and poor execution.
Goldman Sachs (2025-11-10): Maintained Sell; PT $54; emphasized guidance cut and execution-driven issues.
Jefferies (2025-11-12): Hold; PT cut to $52; views as transition period with challenged earnings power.
Some bulls remain (e.g., Barclays Overweight; Truist/Stifel Buy), but even positive-rated firms cut targets sharply and cited low forecasting credibility.

Wall Street pros: brand/asset value and “cheap” valuation framing if execution recovers. Cons: execution problems (salesforce attrition/tours), guidance credibility issues, and risk of further estimate cuts—these cons dominate right now.

Influential trading: Hedge funds and insiders show neutral trends; no recent Congress trading data available.

VAC Should I Buy