USB Should I Buy
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Buy USB now. The trend is broadly bullish (moving averages stacked bullish), options positioning is risk-on (low put/call ratios with elevated volume), Wall Street targets have been moving up after a strong 2025/Q4 print, and hedge fund buying is accelerating. Near-term momentum is slightly cooling (MACD histogram turning negative) and insiders have been net sellers recently, but for an impatient buyer the overall setup still favors upside over the coming weeks.
Trend/structure: Bullish moving-average stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) signals an established uptrend. Momentum: RSI(6) ~58.45 is neutral-to-slightly-bullish (not overbought). MACD histogram is slightly below zero (-0.00199) and negatively expanding, suggesting a mild near-term momentum fade/pause rather than a broken uptrend. Levels: Pivot 55.364 is the key near-term line; holding above it keeps bulls in control. Immediate resistance is R1 56.489, then R2 57.185; support is S1 54.238. With price ~55.93 post-market, the stock is sitting just below first resistance, consistent with consolidation before a potential continuation move.
Strong 2025/Q4 results: revenue +4.34% YoY, net income +24.29% YoY, EPS +24.75% YoY, reinforcing operating leverage and profitability momentum.
Analyst target raises clustered in late Jan 2026 after the earnings beat (multiple firms raising PTs while reiterating Buy/Outperform).
Leadership transition clarity: CEO Gunjan Kedia slated to become chairman after the April annual meeting—continuity with a defined timeline can reduce uncertainty.
Positioning/tape: call-heavy options flow and increased hedge fund buying (+128.97% QoQ) supports bullish sentiment.
Insider selling: insider selling amount increased 284.11% over the last month, which can act as a sentiment overhang.
Near-term technical momentum cooling: MACD histogram slightly negative and expanding could mean short-term chop/pullback risk near resistance (56.49–57.19).
Management change headline risk: COO retirement in April may create short-term uncertainty around execution/operations even if planned.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Growth trends were strong and improving: Revenue $6.487B (+4.34% YoY), Net Income $1.965B (+24.29% YoY), EPS $1.26 (+24.75% YoY). The mix suggests profit growth materially outpaced revenue growth, consistent with positive operating leverage and expense discipline—an important signal for bank stocks.
Recent trend: Clear upward bias in targets and generally constructive ratings following the Q4 earnings beat. In Jan 2026, Argus (Buy) raised PT to $63, DA Davidson (Buy) to $65, RBC (Outperform) to $59, TD Cowen (Buy) to $66, Oppenheimer (Outperform) to $77, BofA (Buy) to $62, while more neutral shops like Truist (Hold) and KBW (Market Perform) also raised targets (to $61 and $59). Wall Street pros: improving operating leverage, strong CET1/ROTCE commentary, attractive valuation relative to setup, and better momentum heading into 2026. Cons: some firms still sit at Hold/Market Perform, implying upside may be more moderate from current levels and execution in 2026 remains a key proof point. Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available; no politician activity indicated in the provided data.
