URI Should I Buy
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Not a good buy right now. URI is in a sharp post-earnings downtrend with bearish momentum (MACD worsening) and price sitting just below/near first support (~792). While RSI is extremely oversold and could spark a bounce, the near-term tape and options positioning lean defensive/bearish, making an immediate entry unattractive for an impatient buyer. I would wait for stabilization (base + momentum turn) rather than buy today.
Trend/momentum: Bearish. MACD histogram is -17.541 and expanding negatively, signaling downside momentum is still building. RSI(6) at 14.84 is deeply oversold (bounce risk is rising, but oversold can persist after an earnings gap-down). Moving averages are converging, consistent with a trend transition/instability after the selloff. Key levels: Price ~783 post-market is below S1 792.872 (broken/being tested from underneath). Next support is S2 744.755 if selling continues. Major pivot resistance sits far above at ~870.756; reclaiming/holding above that would be a more constructive technical reset. Near-term probability model: Pattern analogs imply ~60% odds of further downside (about -4.7% next day; -2.1% next week) despite a more positive 1-month skew (+13.85%), which supports the idea of ‘too early’ vs. ‘good long entry right now.’
Company announced shareholder returns (stock repurchase plan and dividend increase), which can support the stock after large drawdowns.
Several Street firms remain positive on the cycle longer-term (multiple Buy/Overweight ratings) and see upside tied to non-residential construction and Specialty growth/acquisitions.
Oversold technical condition (very low RSI) raises odds of a short-term reflex bounce, even within a downtrend.
Q4 revenue miss and the stock’s sharp ~15% drop signals a reset in expectations and near-term confidence.
Momentum is still deteriorating (MACD negative and worsening), increasing odds of follow-through selling toward ~745 support.
Options flow is defensive (put-heavy volume) and implied volatility is elevated, reflecting continued uncertainty.
Hedge funds/insiders show no notable supportive accumulation trend in the provided data.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Revenue grew modestly to $4.208B (+2.76% YoY), but profitability weakened: net income $653M (-5.22% YoY), EPS 10.24 (-1.92% YoY), and gross margin 35.41% (-5.77% YoY). Overall: top-line growth is slowing and margin/earnings pressure is the key negative takeaway driving the post-earnings de-rating.
Recent trend: Mostly still bullish ratings (Buy/Overweight), but price targets have been cut notably after Q4, reflecting slower near-term growth/margin confidence. Examples: JPMorgan cut PT to $970 from $1,150 (Overweight) and noted shares may remain in ‘purgatory’ until acceleration is visible; BofA cut to $1,020 (Buy); Citi cut to $950 (Buy); KeyBanc cut to $1,000 (Overweight). Offsetting positive: UBS upgraded to Buy with $1,025 (expects non-residential rebound in 2H26), and Wells Fargo raised PT to $1,071 (Overweight). Wall Street pros: Strong long-term cyclicals/infrastructure/data-center exposure, Specialty expansion, shareholder returns. Cons: Near-term growth/margin uncertainty post-Q4, risk of demand normalization, and lack of near-term positive revisions/catalysts.
