UNP Should I Buy
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UNP is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. While the primary trend is still bullish (positive MACD and stacked bullish moving averages), price is sitting just below near-term resistance (~235.46) with short-horizon pattern stats pointing to downside (model implies higher odds of declines over the next day/week/month). With Q4 results/guidance viewed as mixed and merger/regulatory uncertainty likely to dominate headlines, the risk/reward at ~234–235 looks unfavorable for initiating a new position today.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Trend is bullish but extended into resistance. MACD histogram is positive (0.611) and expanding, supporting upward momentum. RSI(6)=62.6 is neutral-to-slightly-strong (not overbought). Moving averages are bullishly aligned (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), confirming an uptrend. Key levels: Pivot/support near 229.00; deeper supports at 222.55 (S1) and 218.56 (S2). Resistance is close at 235.46 (R1) then 239.45 (R2). With price ~234.4 post-market, upside is capped near R1/R2 while a mean-reversion pullback could target 229 or 222.5. Short-term pattern read provided is bearish-biased: estimated 80% chance of ~-1.87% next day, -2.29% next week, -8.05% next month—argues against chasing here.
Record full-year 2025 net income ($7.1B) supports the quality/defensiveness narrative.
EPS and net income grew YoY in 2025/Q4 (EPS +6.87%, net income +4.88%).
Some bullish Street views remain (Citi Buy with PT 270; TD Cowen Buy; Barclays Overweight), citing fundamental value and potential operating leverage.
Storm-related disruption described as temporary with expectation of rapid recovery.
Q4 freight revenue declined (~-1% reported in news; -0.59% YoY in snapshot) and adjusted EPS/profit came in slightly below expectations—near-term narrative is “mixed.”
Margins pressured: gross margin down ~2.18% YoY, pointing to cost headwinds.
Merger/regulatory overhang: commentary suggests potential Norfolk Southern-related opposition/regulatory uncertainty could dominate sentiment and add headline risk.
Congress trading in last 90 days shows 1 sale and 0 buys (cautious signal).
Quant/pattern outlook supplied is negative over the next day/week/month, increasing odds of a near-term pullback from current levels.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Revenue slipped to $6.085B (-0.59% YoY), while profitability improved: net income $1.848B (+4.88% YoY) and EPS 3.11 (+6.87% YoY). However, gross margin fell to 68.96% (-2.18% YoY), indicating improving earnings were helped by factors other than top-line expansion and that costs/mix remain a headwind. Overall: modest growth in earnings with flat-to-down revenue and some margin pressure—solid, but not a strong acceleration setup.
Recent analyst trend is mixed with small price target tweaks around Q4 and some caution. JPMorgan stayed Neutral and trimmed PT to 265. Goldman stayed Neutral, raised PT to 267, and highlighted merger talk likely dominating near/mid-term. TD Cowen kept Buy and slightly trimmed PT to 255; Citi kept Buy and raised PT to 270. Earlier, Deutsche Bank downgraded to Hold (PT 245) citing concern about merger opposition and less robust beats. Wall Street pros: durable franchise, potential operating leverage, and perceived fundamental value; some see upside tied to strategic/industry consolidation. Wall Street cons: regulatory/merger uncertainty, weaker industrial growth/volatile demand, and the latest quarter’s slight miss with cost pressure. Overall tone: constructive long-term, but near-term risk/reward is not compelling at current price.
